Let's Not Inflate the AI Bubble, Is Current Generative AI the New Dot-Com Bubble?
Even if you were born after the 90s and don't personally remember the infamous dot-com bubble, you've likely heard or read about it. It was a time of great excitement but also great turmoil in the tech world. Fast forward to today, and it's the era of AI. Every tech company seems to be 'doing AI', branding even the most basic systems with the AI label. This trend has us all wondering if we're in another bubble, much like the dot-com one. But is it really a bubble, or are we misinterpreting what's happening in the AI landscape?
Not every digital assistant or recommendation system qualifies as 'AI'
To start with, we need to clear up a misunderstanding. Not every digital assistant or recommendation system qualifies as 'AI'. They might be nifty, they might be helpful, but they're not AI. Real AI involves much more than just calling ChatGPT Web API. It involves learning from data, recognizing patterns, and making predictions.
Then there's the fear of AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence. This is the concept of machines that understand the world just as humans do, or even better. But that's a leap too far for now. Today's AI is more about recognizing patterns and predicting outcomes, rather than developing a deep understanding of the world.
Nobel Prize-winning physicist Richard Feynman captured the AGI dilemma beautifully when he asked why we expect machines to think like humans. AI is not designed to replace human intelligence. It's designed to mimic it, to replicate certain facets of our intelligence, not to duplicate it in its entirety.
Speaking of AI's design brings us back to its roots, the Good Old-Fashioned AI (GOFAI), a term that can point to AI pioneers like John McCarthy. He envisioned AI as a way to mimic human intelligence within defined, limited domains. The goal was to create systems that could solve specific problems or perform specific tasks, not to build an human-level super-intelligence.
The history of AI has seen its share of highs and lows. Major breakthroughs like deep learning have revolutionized fields such as image recognition, translation, and search. On the other hand, certain AI technologies, like expert systems and knowledge-based trees, have faded into obscurity. The reason? These systems, despite their initial promise, couldn't adapt to new data or handle tasks outside their predefined rules. They were like rigid trees that couldn't bend with the wind.
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Our inner voice uses language to process information, solve problems, and make decisions.
Today, we're witnessing the rise of generative AI, as exemplified by models like GPT-4 developed by OpenAI. This form of AI is powerful and flexible. It can generate coherent and contextually relevant sentences, giving the impression of understanding language. And language is crucial because it's the fuel of thought. Our inner voice uses language to process information, solve problems, and make decisions.
Unlike the dot-com bubble, the GenAI is unlikely to burst in the same spectacular fashion. Why? Because AI is delivering tangible results. It's helping companies predict consumer behavior, improve operational efficiency, and even diagnose diseases. However, there's a caveat. If companies continue to misuse the 'AI' label for every digital product, we risk inflating the bubble. The focus should be on creating useful AI tools, not just on riding the AI hype wave.
The most exciting aspect of generative AI is its ability to establish a real connection between humans and machines
But let's end on a positive note. In my view, the most exciting aspect of generative AI is its ability to establish a real connection between humans and machines. For the first time, we can have natural, meaningful interactions with a machine. It's early days, but the potential is enormous. As we explore this brave new world of AI, let's remember the wisdom of John McCarthy and the principles of GOFAI. They are our compass as we navigate through the hype and chart a course towards a future where AI is a tool for progress, not a buzzword for marketing.