Let’s do some thinking on Covid19

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Let’s do some thinking on Covid19

Some facts about what we understand on Covid 19 so far:

1.    We are not testing enough – not enough kits available

2.    Kits from China got rejected early on due to susceptible test results

3.    Government hospitals do not have the resources or infrastructure to do enough testing

4.    Private tests are expensive and people / companies / societies / communities will not be able to test everyone when they should be doing it now

5.    In short, we do not have the infrastructure to do enough testing

6.    At this pace, it may take years to test everyone in India if the need arises

7.    Covid19 isn’t fatal for majority of people who contract it

8.    A lot of people who may have contracted it may be Asymptotic so they may never go for testing in the first place

9.    We do not have a set guideline to count for a death towards Covid 19. In some cases, Doctors cannot say with surety if a death happened due to the virus.

10. Social distancing will be difficult to maintain once everything opens in India. Most people do take short cuts and even if they don’t do now, short-cuts and indiscipline will happen at some point in time in near future. It’s the norm of life in India.

India is in Lockdown 4.0 which will most probably be the last lockdown for some time before we open up. We need to recognize that we are opening the country with less than 0.1% of the population tested. Already large parts of the country are open and things are limping back to life. And there is no doubt that we need to open up. We can’t play with the livelihood of the people of our country but keeping businesses shut and people sit at home. There is bound to be restlessness and anxiety. Hence, we have no choice but to open up.

However, in my opinion, here are few things we should now be doing as a nation:

1.    We have to start thinking in multiples now. Think 10x, 20x or even 100x tests per day than what we are doing now. It will bring down the costs of tests (in private pathology and hospitals) substantially and increase the production of test kits exponentially thus further bringing the costs down.

2.    As the costs come down, government should make it mandatory for people to get a test certificate for Covid19 to travel in trains, buses, ferries, airplanes etc. It should also be made mandatory by all companies, schools, colleges to be submitted by workers, employees, students. In fact, if the cost is significantly reduced, the companies can do it mandatorily for their workers and employees.

3.    As the economy opens up, people will start meeting others and there will be more interactions. Hence the validity period of the tests is something which needs to be decided. If the tests become really cheap, the validity period can be a month. If not so, it may be couple of months. Which means everyone will have to get the covid19 tests done once a month or couple of months and renew their certificates.

On the personal front, we need to follow the basic principles rigorously:

1.    Social distancing – while traveling, going for a meeting, dinner etc, ask yourself how important is it? What is the probability of getting infected while taking this action? Can this be avoided or is it absolutely necessary? Even if there is a 1% chance of getting infected, is it worth a risk? There is no right answer. It will depend on individual circumstances and situations.

2.    Masks – There’s a plethora of masks now available everywhere. Do use them while stepping out.

3.    Help at Home – Not just for daily shores but a plumber, an electrician, a gardener – who all are absolutely necessary. Where do they live, how do they travel? Make an estimate – a probability of catching infection through them. One of the most difficult aspect of Indian society to live without. Also, the most difficult to ascertain.

4.    Meeting / Living with Elderly Parents, Grand Parents, Uncle /Aunts – Another tough choice. But for the sake of your loved ones who may be the most susceptible to the virus, do avoid meeting the elderly except for taking care of their daily needs. Ideally it may be better to move out for a few months in case you live with them and need to go out for work on daily basis.

5.    Hanging out with Friends / Parties etc – A must avoid. The probability of spread of virus increases multifold with the increase in crowd / people in crowded places.

6.    Boost your Immune System – This is the time to focus on health. Talk to your family doctor. Ask for guidance. Vitamin C is supposed to boost immunity. Eat better, stay healthy and stay safe.

As a country, as a society we are going through a period of uncertainty. An event for which no one in the world was prepared has occurred and most people (including leaders) do not know how to handle it. It is the very first time that we are confronting a challenge like this. There is no safety net available as no one had the foresight of the consequences which are abnormal in any which way you look at. With businesses closed and millions of people infected, it has been unprecedented.

Hence the governments and societies are responding in a narrow set of rules / guidelines and thought process. But as we move forward, we know that we need to establish a new normal. The old normal (pre-pandemic) was so fragile and we all ended being sitting ducks. We will need to come out more resilient and stronger to create a new normal which makes us better prepared for uncertainties of the future.

 #covid19 #coronavirus #response #uncertainty #notenoughtesting