LET JASPER BEGIN AN ERA OF COOPERATION ON ALL SIDES, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE FEDS AND PROVINCES. LET THE VOTER TELL OUR REPS WE WANT SOLUTIONS

I AM ANGRY AT THE WRITERS HERE, WHO ONLY SEEK TO BLAME THE FEDS FOR THE FIRE IN JASPER WITHOUT LOOKING TO THE PROVINCES AVOIDANCE OF GLOBAL WARMING. WE NEED A BALANCED EXAMINATION OF THE CRISIS AND AN EFFORT TO WORK TOGETHER

THIS IS MY COUNTRY AND YOURS, WE ARE NEIGHBOURS, EH!

THE REAL QUESTION IS WHETHER ALL POLITICIANS, WITH THEIR BICKERING AND DENIAL, WITH THEIR ATTACKS TO GAIN POPULARITY, ARE ADVANCING SUSTAINABLE SOLUTIONS TO OPERATE IN OUR INTERESTS. THE WORLD AND THE OIL COMPANIES HAVE WARNED US. THE REALITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WORLD HAS VERIFIED THE OIL COMPANIES' PREDICTIONS; WE ALLOW OUR POLITICIANS TO WASTE PRECIOUS TIME AND SQUABLE FOR POLITICAL POINTS. THE PROVINCES COULD DO BETTER AND, LIKE QUEBEC AND BC, OFFERED UP PLANS FOR ?SURVIVAL

I'VE ENCLOSED THE OUTLINE OF THE EXXON AND SHELL REPORTS FOR YOU TO SCUTINIZE. Could you read them and tell me where they've been?

The reality is that fires have increased since 1900. In the last two years, there has been a slight reduction in number, but that could be attributed to more incredible storms and better forest management; however, the extent of damage has increased dramatically, attributable to warmer and drier forests and the reduction of differences between ambient and kindling point temperatures. The actual parameter to examine is that lightning strikes have increased.

Here are some fundamental truths on the topic

The Canadian government formally recognized the urgency of addressing global warming and committed to specific emissions reduction targets as early as 2019. In July 2021,?A bit late, but at least they recognized it and started to take steps to resolve it. In?March 2021, the?Supreme Court of Canada?upheld the federal carbon tax in a?6-3 decision despite legal challenges from Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario. This decision confirmed the constitutionality of the carbon tax, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the UCP leadership hopeful Danielle Smith has expressed her intention to?rechallenge?the carbon tax if elected as Alberta's premier, citing concerns about its impact on vulnerable Albertans1.?Premier Smith has recently called for?exemptions?or even scrapped the carbon tax altogether.

Internal documents from both Exxon and Shell from the 1980s reveal that their scientists accurately predicted global warming trends and the potential impacts of climate change.

Exxon's Predictions:

• Accurate Modeling:?Exxon's scientists accurately modelled and predicted global warming, aligning with independent academic and government research.
• Timeline:?They accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would be detectable.
• Impacts:?Exxon's research acknowledged the potential for rising global temperatures,?sea level rise,?and other climate-related disruptions.
• Accurate Modeling:?Exxon's scientists accurately modeled and predicted global warming, aligning with independent academic and government research.
• Timeline:?They accurately predicted when human-caused global warming would be detectable.
• Impacts:?Exxon's research acknowledged the potential for rising global temperatures,?sea level rise,?and other climate-related disruptions.
• Current world observations and other research papers have confirmed many of these observations.

Shell's Predictions:

• Two Scenarios:?Shell's internal reports outlined two possible scenarios:?one with a transition to clean energy and another with continued fossil fuel use.
• Fossil Fuel Scenario:?In the scenario where fossil fuel demand continued to rise,?Shell predicted increased storms,?droughts,?and floods – outcomes consistent with the current impacts of climate change.
• Awareness of Consequences:?Shell was aware that its business model was contributing
• Two Scenarios:?Shell's internal reports outlined two possible scenarios:?one with a transition to clean energy and another with continued fossil fuel use.
• Fossil Fuel Scenario:?In the scenario where fossil fuel demand continued to rise,?Shell predicted increased storms,?droughts,?and floods – outcomes consistent with the current impacts of climate change.
• Awareness of Consequences:?Shell knew its business model contributed to these devastating outcomes.

Predictions for 2025 and 2050:

While the specific predictions for 2025 and 2050 within those documents are only sometimes readily available,?the overall trajectory was clear:?continued reliance on fossil fuels would lead to significant global warming and increasingly severe climate impacts. Given the current trends,?it's likely that their models projected rising temperatures,?more extreme weather events,?and rising sea levels by these dates. While the specific reports from Exxon and Shell in the 1970s and 1980s may not explicitly mention "forest fires" as a distinct consequence,?they do reference the increased risk of extreme weather events and droughts,? key factors contributing to the severity and frequency of wildfires. Other reports since then have referenced the increase in forest fires caused by the inferences drawn from these reports.

The documents acknowledge that continued reliance on fossil fuels would lead to:

·????? Higher temperatures:?This dries out vegetation,?creating tinderbox conditions for fires.

• Droughts reduce moisture levels in soil and vegetation,?making them more susceptible to ignition and hindering firefighting efforts.
• Changes in precipitation patterns can create longer fire seasons and increase the likelihood of lightning strikes,?a major natural cause of wildfires.

These predicted changes in climate patterns align with the observed increase in wildfire frequency and intensity in recent decades,?particularly in regions like the Western United States and Australia. While the term "forest fires" might not be explicitly used,?the underlying science and predicted impacts point towards a heightened risk of such events as lightning strikes, which are significant causes of wildfires.

I seek to stop Federal and Provincial finger-pointing and teamwork by our elected officials.

Our society is deeply divided,?a rift threatening our survival if we fail to unite. The "us versus them" mentality, often exploited by political parties seeking power,?has become deeply ingrained in our discourse. This divisiveness prevents us from cooperating and finding solutions to pressing challenges like the recent wildfires.

It's easy to fall into the trap of blame. Initially,?I pointed fingers at various levels of government for their lack of maintenance,?failure to consider the risks of global warming,? inadequate preparation for increased lightning strikes and quicker attainment of kindling points due to warmer temperatures. However,?after deeper reflection,?it's evident that we all share responsibility for the current situation.

We must acknowledge that who we elect to lead us is ultimately our responsibility. By asking questions,?demanding accountability,?and insisting on cooperation,?we can break the cycle of divisive politics and refuse to be pawns in their "I will save you" games.

The recent wildfires are a stark reminder that we are all interconnected and must work together to survive and thrive. Let us move beyond partisan blame and embrace a spirit of unity,?cooperation,?and shared responsibility. Only then can we effectively address our challenges and build a better future for all.

While it's undeniable that forest fire frequency has increased since the early 20th century,?primarily due to industrialization and global warming,?the recent decline in numbers,?coupled with increased intensity,?warrants further investigation.

Several factors can explain this seemingly contradictory trend in the fire story:

1. Fuel Load and Landscape Changes:?Decades of fire suppression policies have led to a buildup of flammable materials in forests. This accumulated fuel,?combined with landscape changes like urbanization and agricultural expansion,?can create conditions for larger,?more intense fires when ignition does occur.
2. Climate Change-Induced Weather Patterns:?Climate change alters weather patterns,?leading to prolonged droughts,?higher temperatures,?and frequent lightning strikes. These conditions increase the likelihood of fire ignition and create a tinderbox environment where fires can quickly escalate.
3. Fire Management Strategies:?In recent years,?there has been a shift towards more proactive fire management strategies,?including prescribed burns and forest thinning. While these measures can reduce the risk of catastrophic fires in the long run,?they can also temporarily increase the number of more minor,?controlled burns.
4. Data Collection and Reporting:?Improvements in fire detection and reporting technologies might lead to more accurate data,?revealing previously unrecorded fires. This could contribute to the perception of increased fire frequency in earlier periods.

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Moreover,?it's essential to consider the distinction between wet and dry storms. While maintaining the potential for fire ignition,?wet lightning storms often deliver significant rainfall,?which can deter rapid-fire expansion and detection due to increased moisture content in the vegetation. On the other hand,?dry lightning storms,?characterized by minimal rainfall,?pose a higher risk of immediate and intense wildfires as the lightning strikes dry fuel with little to no moisture to impede combustion.

The increasing frequency and intensity of storms,?whether wet or dry,?inherently elevates the risk of wildfires. As we cannot control the occurrence of these natural phenomena,?it is crucial to focus on mitigating their potential impact. This involves implementing proactive fire management strategies,?investing in early detection and rapid response systems,?and educating communities on wildfire preparedness and prevention.

Further research is needed to fully understand these complex dynamics and develop effective mitigation strategies.

In conclusion,?the recent decline in fire frequency should not be interpreted as a definitive decrease in overall fire risk. Instead,?it may signify a shift towards fewer but more intense fires,?driven by complex interactions between climate change,?fuel accumulation,?and evolving fire management practices. Additionally,?the distinction between wet and dry storms,?coupled with the increasing frequency of storms in general,?underscores the need for heightened vigilance and proactive measures to mitigate the ever-present threat of wildfires.

.?Several sources support this:

1. Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN):?Data from Vaisala shows an increase in lightning activity in the United States. In 2021,?there were 24 million more lightning events than the previous year, totalling 194 million strikes. This upward trend aligns with observations from other sources.
2. Research on Boreal Forests:?Research published in Nature Climate Change indicates a significant increase in lightning-ignited fires in the boreal forests of North America since 1975. This trend is attributed to a combination of factors,?including rising temperatures and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.
3. Climate Change and Lightning:?Scientific studies have established a link between climate change and increased lightning activity. Warmer temperatures lead to more atmospheric moisture and instability,?creating conditions conducive to thunderstorms and lightning.
4. News and Media Reports:?Numerous articles and reports have highlighted lightning strikes' increasing frequency and intensity in recent years,?further supporting the observed trend.

While the exact extent of the increase varies depending on the region and data source,?the overall evidence points to a clear upward trend in lightning activity in North America over the past five years. This trend is consistent with the predicted effects of climate change on weather patterns and atmospheric conditions.

YET, WHILE I WRITE TO ENCOURAGE COOPERATION, MANY WILL WRITE TO CRITICIZE ME PERSONALLY FOR DIVIDING THE COUNTRY IN THE NAME OF POLITICS. I AIM TO HAVE INFORMED VOTERS KNOW THE TRUTH AND FORCE OUR REPRESENTATIVES TO COOPERATE

Is it related to global warming?

The evidence strongly suggests a link between increased lightning activity and global warming. As global temperatures rise,?more water evaporates into the atmosphere,?leading to increased humidity and the formation of thunderstorms. Warmer air also holds more moisture,?fueling more intense storms and lightning. While other factors like natural variability may also play a role,?the overall trend is consistent with the predicted effects of climate change on lightning activity.

Additional resources:

• Vaisala's 2023 Annual Lightning Report:?[invalid URL removed]
• Lightning is Sparking More Boreal Forest Fires in Far North America:https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/91343/lightning-is-sparking-more-boreal-forest-fires-in-far-north-america
• Lightning Strike Victim Data - CDC:?https://www.cdc.gov/lightning/data-research/index.html

Alberta has experienced increased storm activity recently,?with a notable focus on extreme weather events.

Recent Events:

• 2023:?Alberta faced record-breaking wildfires,?spreading smoke and air quality advisories. This was coupled with persistent heatwaves,?exacerbating the fire risk and causing health concerns. A rare tornado also touched down on Canada Day,?causing damage in the Didsbury area.
• 2024:?The province continues to experience extreme heat,?with record-breaking temperatures in Calgary and Edmonton. This,?combined with ongoing wildfires and incoming storms,?raises concerns about further fire ignitions and deteriorating air quality.

Factors Contributing to Increased Storm Activity:

• Climate Change:?Alberta,?like many regions,?is experiencing the effects of climate change,?which is leading to more frequent and intense weather events such as heat waves,?droughts,?and severe storms.
• Geographic Location:?The province's location in the Canadian Prairies makes it susceptible to extreme weather patterns,?including thunderstorms and tornadoes.

While the exact causes of the increased storm activity are complex,?the evidence suggests a combination of climate change and geographic factors. Albertans must stay informed about weather alerts and be prepared for extreme weather events.

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MY GOAL:

A United Front for a Sustainable Future: The Need for Collaborative Climate Policy in Canada

We need more politicians like the recently elected Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew. He doesn't like the tax for accurate economic analysis of cause and effect. Still, he recognizes the need for the provinces to become involved and suggests better cooperation. The political advantage of each side attacking the other does not benefit Canada. Infrasture destruction is an example; we all pay one way or another. My point is to let Jasper serve as a pivot point for national cooperation instead of attacks for political purposes. This is a national emergency, and we need people who work together.

?Kinew summed much of this up in a Lobe and Mail article: The divide between federal and provincial governments has intensified in Canadian politics,?particularly concerning climate change policy. While the federal government pushes for ambitious targets and stringent regulations, some provinces,?notably Alberta and Manitoba,?have resisted and adopted lukewarm or vague approaches. This discord hinders CanCanada'sility to combat climate change and transition to a sustainable future effectively.

Conservatives,?in particular,?have been vocal in their opposition to federal climate policies,?focusing primarily on the perceived negative economic impacts. While their concerns about the rising carbon tax and its potential burden on consumers are valid,?their rhetoric often lacks a comprehensive alternative vision for climate action. This narrow focus on economic grievances leaves a void in their policy discourse,?neglecting the pressing need for innovative solutions and collaborative efforts.

Pierre Poilievre,?a prominent conservative figure,?exemplifies this trend. Despite his criticisms of current policies,?he has yet to articulate a concrete and detailed climate plan. This absence of a clear alternative leaves Canadians with more questions than answers and raises concerns about the conservative parparty'smmitment to addressing climate change effectively.

Provincial governments also play a crucial role in climate policy. Alberta Premier Danielle SmiSmith'so"d and unmistakably Albertan" c"imate plan has been met with skepticism due to its lack of specifics and ambiguous commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050. Moreover,?the proprovince'scent actions,?such as hindering renewable power development,?contradict its stated aspirations. This disconnect between words and deeds undermines public trust and doubts the govgovernment'sncerity in tackling climate change.

ManManitoba'scent change in leadership offers a glimmer of hope. The newly elected NDP government,?led by Wab Kinew,?has signalled a more ambitious approach to climate action. However,?it inherits a legacy of inadequate climate policies from the previous Progressive Conservative government. This highlights the need for consistent and long-term commitment to climate action,?regardless of political affiliation.

The Climate InsInstitute'ssessment of provincial climate plans underscores the sitsituation'sgency. Their findings reveal that the proprovinces'llective targets fall significantly short of the federal goals,?indicating a lack of coordinated effort and a fragmented approach. This discrepancy not only hinders CanCanada'sility to meet its international obligations but also jeopardizes the well-being of future generations.

To effectively address climate change,?Canada needs a united front,?with both federal and provincial governments working collaboratively towards common goals. This requires a shift in political discourse,?away from divisive rhetoric and towards constructive dialogue. Conservatives must move beyond their opposition to specific policies and present a comprehensive and credible alternative vision for climate action.

Moreover,?provincial governments must recognize their responsibility to contribute to national climate goals. This entails developing detailed and ambitious climate plans that align with the federal targets and actively supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy. Collaboration,?rather than confrontation,?should be the guiding principle in shaping CanCanada'simate policy.

The stakes are high,?and the time for action is now. Climate change significantly threatens our environment, economy,?and social fabric. It is imperative that politicians from all levels of government put aside their differences and work together to forge a sustainable future for Canada. By embracing collaboration and innovation,?we can build a resilient and prosperous nation prepared to face the challenges of the 21st century.

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