Let the Games begin!

Let the Games begin! ??

#hydrogen #FCEV #fuelcell #EV #olympicgames

Well, my last post certainly engendered a lot of interest and blow back.? It was a rather off the cuff post and of course I was being facetious when suggesting Paris organizers should cancel the games so they could be the ‘greenest games ever’. ??

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But with all the comments, I thought this warrants a closer look at the details of the letter.

But first a little housekeeping:

1)???? ?If your comment is longer than my post, you obviously have lot on your mind so suggest you do a whole post on it and then a wider audience can give you feedback.

2)???? Linked in is a great forum to post and stir debate among professionals.? I’ve been a practicing engineer for over 40 years, and I continue to learn new things daily.? And when I’m wrong, I’ll be the first to admit it.? But if, in your comment, you cannot verbalize a cogent counter argument and can only impugn my character and motivation with a one liner, then I suggest you content yourself to tweeting on X where one seems able to cast innuendo and malign others with impunity.

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The Letter:

Hydrogen cars risk derailing green credibility of Paris Olympics.

?Open letter from scientists concerned that hydrogen cars are misaligned with net-zero.

?Dear Mr. Bach, Mr. Estanguet, Mr. Cunéo,

?As qualified scientists, academics and engineers, our first priority is to represent scientific fact. While we commend the 2024 Paris Olympics in aiming to halve carbon emissions compared with editions of the Games in the 2010s,

Fact check: ?This is correct, Tokyo 2020 was not used in the baseline because of the dearth of spectators due to Covid, the carbon footprint was much smaller than it would have been otherwise.

?we note the plan includes using “a fleet of clean vehicles to transport the Olympic and Paralympic family”. Within this, the Toyota Mirai which is a hydrogen fuel-cell car, has been named the official vehicle of the Olympics. It will be used alongside 10 hydrogen fuel-cell coaches to transport athletes and visitors.

Fact check:? Toyota are also supplying 1,500 EVs.?

We are writing to express our concern that Toyota’s promotion of a hydrogen car is scientifically misaligned with net-zero and will damage the reputation of the 2024 Games. Opportunity remains to reroute, and we urge that you require Toyota to replace the Mirai with a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) as the official Games vehicle. The reasons are as follows:

1. The IPCC is clear that Battery Electric Vehicles represent the most effective way to decarbonise passenger transport. Hydrogen used to power road transport is not aligned with the world’s net-zero goals and ultimately risks distracting and delaying from the real solutions we have available today.

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Fact check:? The letter is mixing terms here confusing the issue. Passenger transport is a subset of road transport that would also include trucks moving goods. The IPCC report more correctly states ““Finally, hydrogen-based fuel cells could power vehicles. Recent advances in battery storage make electric vehicles the most attractive alternative for light-duty transport [i.e., cars and vans]. However, fuel cell technology could complement electric vehicles in supporting the decarbonisation of heavy-duty transport segments (e.g., trucks, buses, ships, and trains).” ?Trucks are a big component of road transport. I still think this sector is ideal.? There need to be only a limited number of hydrogen fueling stations along busy hauling corridors.? Truckers want to be hauling revenue generating cargo, not the dead weight of their own batteries.

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2. Green hydrogen powered fuel-cell vehicles require three times more renewable electricity than equivalent Battery Electric Vehicles. As a result, they require three times more renewable electricity-generating infrastructure such as wind turbines and solar panels and are at least three times more expensive to run than BEVs. Given many countries have yet to achieve 100% renewable energy in their electricity grids, it’s important to note that adding renewable electricity into the grid reduces emissions far more than producing highly energy inefficient green hydrogen and converting it back to electricity in a fuel-cell car. This means every hydrogen vehicle powered by green hydrogen represents a failed opportunity cost for the climate.

Fact check: There are opportunity costs and failed opportunities but there is no such thing as a failed opportunity cost... but I guess I can understand what they are trying to say.

Yes agree, when changing from electricity to hydrogen back to electricity you are better off using the electricity in the first place. However countries like Japan have maxed out the sites where they can put renewable energy and still need to import energy. If not LNG then it will have to be hydrogen (presumably through ammonia). Then fuel cell vehicles would make sense there.

3. Almost all hydrogen today is made from fossil fuels with unabated emissions. Hydrogen itself is not an energy source, it must be made from other sources of energy. 99% of hydrogen today is made from fossil fuels without carbon capture and storage, and consequently the global hydrogen market currently emits approximately the same emissions as the global aviation industry. It is essential that these emissions generated by hydrogen manufacture are cleaned up before introducing new end uses for hydrogen. According to the International Energy Agency the uptake of low emissions hydrogen remains limited, accounting for only 0.6% of total hydrogen demand.

Fact Check: This statement is correct, but disingenuous in light of this letter.? Yes 99% of hydrogen being produced is from fossil fuels and each 1 kg of hydrogen produced results in at least 9 kg of CO2 being released to that atmosphere. But this is because all this hydrogen is being made by and used by the refineries to upgrade lower value crudes to higher value gasolines and remove impurities.? It has nothing to do with ground transportation.? Hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles is being produced by electrolysis and yes, it is expensive.? Electrolyzers consume about 55 kWh of electricity to product 1 kg of hydrogen. One can argue that we have been addicted to cheap fossil fuels and the real price of green energy will be higher.? Hence sticker price shock at the hydrogen pumps.? But also, hydrogen is a nascent industry and prices will no doubt drop as economies of scale are reached.? Think of what happened with solar panels. We are nowhere near that yet in the hydrogen space.

EV’s are much cheaper to charge with electricity but are still riding on the coat tails of the fossil fuel industry.? All those gasoline taxes are paying for new roads and upkeep.? Once that is gone where will the taxes come from?? The cost of filing the EVs will rise. In fact, the cost of all electricity will rise.? Governments will still want to raise their taxes, one way or another.

Therefore, this part of the letter is misleading the Olympic organizers as it implies that Fuel Cell vehicles are using fossil fuel hydrogen which is not true.

Their chart paints a striking picture of the challenge in meeting low emission hydrogen targets. Consequently sectors with limited clean energy solutions who will rely on hydrogen are already planning to use fossil fuels or fossil fuel hydrogen instead due to the lack of clean hydrogen supply. Failing enough green hydrogen made from renewable electricity, fuel-cell vehicles using fossil fuel hydrogen would actually end up generating 30-50% more emissions than simply using fossil fuels in the first place, depending on the application.

Fact Check:? Seems an unsubstantiated claim, not fact. Insinuating hydrogen stations will use grey hydrogen to fill their cars.? If that were true, the pump price would drop significantly as steam methane reformation of natural gas with no CO2 abatement is the cheapest way to make hydrogen.

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4. Hydrogen cars are not a viable net zero solution. Because of the high cost and poor availability of fuel, sales of hydrogen cars are in rapid global decline. There are approximately 1000 times more BEVs than hydrogen vehicles in the world, with consumers overwhelmingly choosing BEVs as a more compelling option. The limited hydrogen refuelling infrastructure available in some countries has begun to shrink quickly as high fuel costs, high costs of maintaining hydrogen delivery equipment and lack of hydrogen supply are forcing them to close. This is the case in California, the UK and Denmark. Electric vehicle charging infrastructure is much more readily available in every country, with consumers able to charge their vehicles at home or in thousands of public charging locations.

Fact check:? Yes totally true, but again, green hydrogen production and fuel cell vehicle production have yet to reach any kind of economies of scale that would theoretically occur.?

We used to give customers a choice. Not tell them: 'you can have any car you want as long as it’s electric’.? Some people will want the convenience to fill as fast as gasoline and not have range anxiety.? Does hydrogen have problems? Certainly.? Did the fuel cell vehicles come out too quickly before a suitable infrastructure?? Most definitely.?But it is a chicken and egg, filling stations can't be economical unless they dispense a minimum amount of fuel, and people won't by the cars if they can't fuel them.

But what about electric vehicles?? Uptake has also been slow, causing manufacturers to cancel or at least postpone investment in battery plant manufacturing and EV car manufacturing.? Lest not forget that even EV’s are not zero emission if the grid the electricity came from is burning fossil fuels to produce its electricity. Batteries require Lithium, Manganese, Cobalt, Iron, Graphite etc. There are simply not enough mines in current operation to sustain the projected increase in EVs.? We will need to get many more mines in production very quickly.? (Mine development and quick never go together). But there are environmental consequences and carbon footprints associated with all those raw materials being mined, shipped and processed, often in several different countries before they end up in the battery.? Mines have tailing ponds with associated health issues and remediation costs. Finally, there is the issue of forced and child labour associated with many of these mined materials, hence new laws being enacted like Canada’s Bill S-211.? This will invariably lead to increased costs in EVs as companies are forced to clean up their supply chains.

The world is a complicated place and decarbonization is not an easy task.

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The consequence of aggressively promoting hydrogen vehicles at the Olympics will inevitably delay the roll-out of BEVs, damaging the progress of the energy transition.

Fact check: This is a bit over the top.? The Olympics aren’t ‘aggressively promoting’ hydrogen vehicles.? They took fuel cell vehicles and EVs from a sponsor. Everybody attending and watching the Olympics knows that.? To blame the Olympic organizers for delaying the roll out of BEVs is ludicrous.? By the way, I see that Coca Cola is also a sponsor.? That means that the Olympics are tarnishing their reputation by aggressively promoting carbonated beverages! What does carbonated mean?? It means they inject CO2 into their product!? What happens when you open a coke?? You release CO2 into the atmosphere!? What happens when you drink the rest?? You belch out the CO2 into the atmosphere.? Coca Cola is trying to use captured CO2 from their smokestacks to put into their drinks.? So, they burn fossil fuels to make their product and they capture the CO2. But instead of and sequestering the captured CO2 underground to lock it away, they are putting it their product and the CO2 will eventually find its way into the atmosphere anyway!? ?I think another letter to the organizers is in order.? (OK I’m joking, sort of, please don’t send me hate mail).

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5. Hydrogen cars and buses have already failed around the world - including during the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Trials of hydrogen powered cars and buses have repeatedly failed around the world, including in the US, Germany, the UK and France (both in Montpellier and Pau), primarily due to higher costs than electric vehicles and lack of hydrogen supply. Hurdles have plagued taxi operators in Japan who have been trialling the use of the Toyota Mirai, with drivers citing high fuel costs, a lack of efficiency and lack of refuelling infrastructure. Academics are also warning in Australia against wasting public subsidies on hydrogen buses.

Fact check:? “Dear Mr. Edison, you have failed repeatedly to create this light bulb thing of yours.? You have failed miserably time and time again.? Please cease and desist, you will never get it to work”.?

?The 2020 Tokyo Olympics was a significant example of hydrogen mobility not meeting expectations. It was billed as the first ‘Hydrogen Olympics’, and a hydrogen society was promoted as a green solution, including hydrogen for road transport. Former prime minister Shinzo Abe announced that “cars and buses will run through the city powered by hydrogen, and the athletes’ village will run on electricity made from hydrogen”. Despite the promotion, the reality of the 2020 Games was that high costs and lack of hydrogen supply meant that only a few hydrogen powered buses ran short routes. The hydrogen used for these buses is thought to have been unabated ‘grey’ hydrogen, making the well-to-wheel emissions worse than if they simply ran on diesel fuel.

Fact check:? Come on cut them some slack, they barely got the thing off the ground due to Covid.? Surely, they fell short on many things.? But the first sentence of this letter states “our first priority is to represent scientific fact” but here the letter is plying dealing hearsay and casting aspersions:?‘the hydrogen used for these buses is thought to have been unabated grey hydrogen.? There are 120 signatories to this letter, no one could take the trouble to find out a basic fact??? But agreed, if they used grey hydrogen at the 2020 Olympics to power their vehicles that would be a sham.

So, let’s really fact check and see what is happening at the Paris Olympics shall we?

Air Liquide says that the hydrogen will be 100% renewable and they can certify that. Great so there will be no emissions associated with the hydrogen cars and buses.

How about the EVs?? Oh, the French grid emits 44 g CO2 per kWh.? That means the EVs charged with that electricity will not be zero emission.? Quel horreur!? That is definitely awkward.? The fuel cells are zero emission but the EVs are not. What to do?? EDF comes to the rescue.? They write:

“EDF will supply all the Paris 2024 Games sites and infrastructure with guarantees of origin, certifying that a quantity of renewable origin electricity equivalent to their consumption has been injected onto the grid from renewable production sites located somewhere in France (but not near Paris).? The certification is based on a blockchain specifically designed for the energy sector.? It’s combined with an analysis tool developed by EDF experts that guarantees the simultaneity of the electricity production by the sites and building consumption for data traceability that can’t be challenged”.

Yikes, well for the uninitiated of you out there, this is a fancy way of saying that the EVs will be using dirty electrons in Paris, but through accounting sleight of hand, EDF will inject electrons from renewable sources somewhere in France which will offset those dirty electrons so now they can 'claim' that the EVs are zero emission, same as their hydrogen counterparts.

Lastly, we feel it’s important to conclude that even Toyota admits that its Mirai model has not been successful. Toyota itself does not plan to transition to hydrogen cars, with industry data showing hydrogen cars will make up around 0.0% of its production by the end of this decade - a rounding error.

Fact check:? Let’s be honest.? Most car companies make fuel cell vehicles and EVs to fill quotas so they can continue selling their cash cows, internal combustion vehicles, for as long as they can.

We urge the International Olympic Committee to enforce that Toyota switches the official Olympics vehicle, and the entire Olympic vehicle fleet, to 100% Battery Electric Vehicles for the 2024 Games. We remain at your disposal should you wish to discuss this with us further.

Fact check:? Wait you slipped in a new demand at the last minute!? That was sneaky.

You initially urged that the Mirai not be the official Games vehicle and be replaced with ?a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV).? I though OK let’s make it the bZ4X and call it a day.

But now you want the entire fleet to be replaced with EVs.? They can’t even have hydrogen vehicles on site?? That’s too much.? They must have all been shipped there by now. It seems without EDF’s sleight of hand, after all this, the hydrogen vehicles would be the only true ZEVs at the Olympics.? The Olympic organizers should keep them in my opinion. But that just what I think.? What do you think? Civilized and constructive comments welcome.