Lessons in Long-Term Leadership from an Unlikely Source

Last weekend I was in Perth, attending the 15th Industrial and Organisational Psychology Conference. In addition to speaking at the conference, I enjoyed catching up with colleagues and hearing about the latest field research. Despite the nature of the conference, the most inspiring of the presentations was not from a psychologist.??

It was by Sophie Howe, the first Future Generations Commissioner for the nation of Wales.??

Fascinatingly, the country of Wales has had a national conversation about its future. It asked its population, "What is the Wales we would like to leave to future generations?" As a result of the consultation, they have developed a national vision and seven goals that are aimed at building a better, stronger, and healthier Wales for the future.??

These goals not only serve as an aspiration to one day be realised in the future. They serve as present-day guideposts, a filter for decision-making, and a test against which current policy must stack up.??

TRANSPORT STRATEGY PUT TO THE TEST?

During the presentation, Sophie shared a story that highlighted just how powerful the development of this vision and these goals have been.??

In 2019, the Welsh government had a plan to address road congestion by constructing several new motorways and widening others. They were planning to use borrowed funds to do so.??

When questioned about how this policy stacked up against the national Well-being of Future Generations Goals, it quickly became apparent the government's approach needed to be evaluated.??

• Creating more roads for more cars was neither innovative nor productive, nor was it an efficient use of resources that promoted a low-carbon society - as articulated in the Prosperous goal.??
• Being a Resilient nation focused on ecological resilience. The planned motorways would cause the loss of several waterways that played an important part in the environmental balance of the area.??
• Driving from door to door may be convenient, but it does not promote healthy activity.??
• Interestingly demographic studies revealed that the vast majority of the cars on the road were driven by individuals with high socio-economic status, who made up a minority of the population. 52% of those living in low socio-economic status areas didn't even own a car. Therefore any resources invested in improving roads were benefiting the minority of the population and not making for a More Equal community.??
• Social research also highlighted that more time spent driving resulted in more disconnected communities, not more Cohesive Communities.??

As a result of this assessment, the government shelved its planned upgrades. Instead, it produced a new national transport strategy that focused on active travel (walking/cycling) and public transport. It took investment into these areas from 5 million to 75 million over five years. In so doing, they reduced congestion and tackled their transport challenge in a way that was consistent with their long-term vision.??

?THE VALUE OF FUTURE-BACK THINKING?

Too often these days, leaders fall prey to short-term decision-making. Whether driven by corporate reporting cycles and share price, as a reaction to competitors in the marketplace, or simply a lack of personal delayed gratification, leaders fail to consider the future implications of today's decisions.???

What I like about the image below is that it helps us understand that many different future scenarios could play out. These future scenarios are dependent on our actions in the present, as well as any number of other external influences and events that might occur between now and then.??

It is your role as a leader to consider each of these future scenarios, those with positive outcomes and also those with negative outcomes. It is only when you have imagined and considered these scenarios that you can identify what factors might lead to positive or negative outcomes. This understanding helps you determine what decisions you make in the present to facilitate factors that generate positive outcomes and avoid situations that produce negative future outcomes.?

This process of considering the future and reverse engineering the path to get there is a process called backcasting, or as Peter Hawkins calls it, future-back thinking. It is an important skill for highly effective executive leaders who have to develop organisational strategies. However, it is a skill that is best developed at a more tactical level early on in a leader's career.??

Middle managers could consider what the possible futures are for their team and backcast to develop a plan to increase performance or improve team culture. Frontline supervisors might consider a working relationship and envision both an improved working relationship in 12 months, as well as a scenario where the relationship has broken down completely. Future-back thinking could be employed to identify how to invest in that relationship and what scenarios should be avoided.??

When we think of countries that are world-leading, we often think of the economic and cultural superpowers. I doubt anyone reading this would have thought Wales, a small country on the far side of the globe to be at the cutting edge of nation-level leadership. If they can do it as a nation, why can't we do it in our workplaces??

I've been advocating for individuals, teams, and organisations to employ future-back thinking for a long time. As a student of leadership, I'm impressed at the ability of the Welsh people to do this at a national level. As someone with Welsh heritage, I'm proud they have been able to do so.??

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