? Lessons Learned from the Covid19 Pandemic Crisis ?

It is still far too early to grasp the political impact of the Covid-19. This crisis has reinforced the fears of anti-globalists: The closure of airports and the self-isolation of individuals seem to be at the low level of globalization. But, paradoxically, this moment of anti-globalization renewal could weaken populist political figures who, even when they ask the right questions, do not have the answers.  This article presents some important  lessons learned during this period of health crisis due to COVI19. The list of lessons is not exshaustive.

The First lesson is that, unlike the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the coronavirus will force the return of Government Interventionism. After the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, many observers were confident that a crisis caused by lack of confidence in the market would lead to increased confidence in governments. This concept was nothing new: in 1929, at the start of the Great Depression, people demanded strong government intervention to make up for market failures. In the 1970s,  it  was  the opposite: people were disappointed with government intervention and therefore turned to the market again. Today, the coronavirus crisis will allow the return of the state in all its strength. People are counting on their governments to organize a collective defense against the pandemic, as well as to save their collapsing economy and life.

 The Second lesson is that the coronavirus crisis gives us yet more proof of the symbolic nature of borders. We can already see this with the closing of borders between several countries even inside the UE zone - and with the priority given by each government to its own citizens. Normally, states would not make any distinction between the nationalities of patients in their health services, but during this crisis, they probably prioritize their citizens before others. As a result, the coronavirus will strengthen nationalism, but not ethnic nationalism.

The Third lesson we can learn from the coronavirus is the trust and confident that we place in Expertise. The financial crisis and the migration crisis of 2015 caused general dissatisfaction with the experts. This changeover, part of the greatest victories of populist political representatives in the last ten years, will be reversed by the coronavirus - since most citizens trust the experts and follow scientific recommendations  when their lives are at stake. We can already see the increasing legitimacy granted to professionals and experts on the front line of the fight against the virus. Now Expertise is back in fashion.

The Fourth lesson, although fundamental, is free to interpret. Unfortunately, the coronavirus crisis is likely to increase the attractiveness of Big Data Authoritarianism like the one put in place by the Chinese government. The capacity of the Chinese state to control the movements as well as the behavior of its population have been remarkable during the crisis time inside this country. In the current crisis, citizens are constantly comparing the responses and effectiveness of their governments to those of others. And we should not be surprised if, in the aftermath of this crisis, China seems to be the winner, and the United States defeated.

The Fifth lesson deals with Crisis Management. What governments have learned from managing economic crises, the migration crisis and terrorist attacks is that panic is their worst enemy. If, during the months following a terrorist attack, people changed their daily behavior and avoided leaving their homes, this only helped the terrorists to achieve their goal. The same was true between 2008 and 2009: changing behavior often increased the cost of the crisis. Political leaders and citizens therefore reacted by hammering out messages such as "stay calm", "keep living as before", "ignore the risk" and "do not exaggerate". Today, governments must tell their citizens to change their behavior while staying at home. And the success of governments depends mainly on their ability to scare their citizens to obey. "Don't panic" is the wrong message to send out during the Covid-19 crisis.

The Sixth Lesson is that the Covid-19 crisis will have a major impact on Intergenerational Dynamics. In the context of debates on climate change and its consequences, the younger generations have strongly criticized the selfishness and lack of conscience of their elders. The coronavirus reverses this dynamic: now, the oldest members of society are the most vulnerable and feel threatened by the blatant refusal of "Millennials" to change their habits.

The Seventh lesson is that, sooner or later, governments will have to choose between, on the one hand, stemming the spread of the virus by sacrificing their economy, and, on the other, increasing the human cost to save the economy.

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