LESSONS FROM THE WORLD EXPERIENCE WITH THE NEW CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC

Fernando Alcoforado*

This article aims to present the lessons brought by the new Coronavirus pandemic from the experience gained from the impacts of the new Coronavirus on the health of the world population and on the global economy that have spread since 2019 around the world. Since the outbreak of the new Coronavirus pandemic, we have done several researches and in-depth studies on the pandemics that occurred in the world and on the issue of the new Coronavirus that were published on numerous websites that allowed us to draw important conclusions on how to deal with the current pandemic and future pandemics. The research and studies we have carried out on past pandemics and the new Coronavirus have allowed us to reach conclusions about: 1) the causes of pandemics; 2) the dynamics of the spread of pandemics; 3) the imperative need to strengthen health systems to face pandemics; 4) the impacts of the new Coronavirus pandemic on the world of work; 5) the urgent need to restructure the education system; 6) the urgent need to restructure the public transport system; 7) the changes imposed by the new Coronavirus pandemic on social relations; 8) the need for city planning on new bases imposed by the new Coronavirus pandemic; 9) the need for changes in the process of development of society imposed by the pandemic of the new Coronavirus; 10) the end of the contemporary globalization process with the new Coronavirus pandemic; 11) the need for national self-sufficiency imposed by the new Coronavirus pandemic; 12) the imperative need for investments in research for new vaccines against current and future pandemics; and, 13) the imperative need for governments committed to fighting current and future pandemics. The conclusions set out below in a synthetic way will enable national governments and society in general to make profound changes in all their activities to deal with the current and future pandemics.

Regarding the causes of pandemics, scientific research indicates that they result from the destruction of nature, unbridled deforestation, the uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive agriculture, mining, as well as the exploitation of wild species that created the “perfect storm” for spread of bacteria and viruses. The destruction of habitats of other animals will make epidemics and pandemics more and more common that will spread throughout the world thanks to the destructive and invasive action of human beings against nature unless something is done to prevent them by strengthening the systems of health surveillance in all countries and the World Health Organization (WHO). To be successful in combating future pandemics, it is necessary that, at the global level, WHO acts in the coordination of countries in combating pandemics and their causes. In national sphere, strategic governmental plans should be drawn up with the participation of all levels of government, the productive sector and civil society organizations to provide the health system, the economic system and society with the conditions necessary to stop the spread of pandemics. Governments at all levels, the productive sector and civil society should work together in a coordinated way to combat the common enemy to prevent the spread of the pandemic and minimize the damage caused by the health crisis to the economy and the population based on effective health public plans and economic plans. In the fight against the new Coronavirus, there were no global and national strategies to eliminate the causes of the pandemic, there was a failure in health surveillance, there was no effective worldwide coordination of WHO in the fight against the pandemic and the vast majority of countries did not draw up strategic health public plans and economic plans. Few countries have outlined strategic plans to provide the health system, the economic system and society with the conditions necessary to stop the spread of the new Coronavirus pandemic.

Regarding the dynamics of the spread of pandemics, there is a consensus among the scientific community that there must be social distancing to prevent its expansion and the health of the population should be considered a priority and not the resumption of economic activity as a government strategy. The correct strategy to prevent the spread of the pandemic should be to adopt a "lockdown" and mass vaccination to prevent the curve of infected and killed by the new Coronavirus from putting pressure on the health system. Lockdown cities and regions should only be released gradually with the entire population wearing a facemask, being subjected to constant tests with temperature measurements, in addition to the population being controlled by means of an immunity passport. Thus, citizens would receive codes marked in green, yellow or red. Only residents with a green code could move freely around the city. People with yellow and red codes should remain in quarantine and register daily on an internet platform to provide information, until they get the green code. In general, the vast majority of countries acted in a cluttered manner, without planning to combat the new Coronavirus, and few countries considered health as a priority in the confrontation with the economy and few countries adopted the “lockdown”, carried out tests and exercised effective control of the pandemic. This explains the failure of most countries to combat the new Coronavirus.

Regarding the imperative need to strengthen health systems to face pandemics, this became evident with the fact that all countries in the world was not prepared to face the pandemic of the new Coronavirus to the point that many of them have collapsed their health systems. The strengthening of health systems means the implementation of health infrastructure with sufficient capacity in all countries with hospitals and health posts, as well as massive investment in research and development aimed at the manufacture of medicines and vaccines capable of combating current and future pandemics. Regarding the impacts of the new Coronavirus pandemic on the world of work, this was evident with the increase in unemployment resulting from the fall in economic activity in general worldwide. Governments and companies had no plans to deal with the new conditions imposed by the pandemic on the world of work. Many companies were surprised by the need to avoid agglomerations in the workplace, a fact that forced them to change their modus operandi with the performance of work in their own homes (home working) by some workers and the delivery of products and services by suppliers (delivery) in homes and other locations. This scenario contributed to some governments around the world having to act to alleviate the social situation of the populations of all countries, many of whom are starving.

Regarding the imperative need to restructure the education system, this became evident with the adoption of distance education to avoid the crowding of students as an alternative to traditional face-to-face education. To adopt this modality, the education networks need to adapt the teaching methodology to the necessary technological resources. Students must receive adequate and correct learning. Educational institutions must ensure monitoring, assessments and the correct participation of students. Many educational institutions will be in a much better position to conduct digital experiments than others. Technology does not work the same for all age groups. Governments and educational institutions were surprised and had no plans to deal with the new conditions imposed by the pandemic in the education sector. Distance learning was poorly adopted without any planning affecting the quality of teaching worldwide. Regarding the imperative need to restructure the public transport system, this became evident with the requirement to avoid crowding passengers. Transport systems will have to be reorganized up with the requirement to increase the capacity of the transport system to prevent the spread of the current pandemic and future pandemics with people being transported seated on public transport and with social distancing. It is necessary to have a policy of investments in public transport to increase its capacity, modernize it and guarantee its access to the population, pluralizing the means of transport in addition to the bus, with the installation of vehicles such as trains, subways and cycle paths in the cities. Governments and transport companies were surprised and had no plans to deal with the new conditions imposed by the pandemic in the transport sector, which continues to operate in a precarious manner in most countries in the world and is one of the main vectors for the spread of the new pandemic Coronavirus in all countries.

Regarding the changes imposed by the pandemic of the new Coronavirus in social relations, this was evident by the demand for social distancing and to avoid crowds. New social relationship habits that are already being adopted will continue in the future. Such a global and threatening turmoil as the new Coronavirus can leave profound cultural marks, and even change our notions of etiquette in the future. Face-to-face meetings will be avoided in the future with the use of meeting software. There is a requirement that there should be no crowds at sporting events, music, theater and cinema, among others. In all likelihood, there will be a policy of reducing the capacity of the public at events in the future, in addition to cleaning the event venues so as not to spread pandemics. Regarding the need for city planning on new bases imposed by the new Coronavirus pandemic, this became evident because cities need to prepare themselves to face new pandemics, as they are the propitious space for their spread on a large scale due to the population concentration and the poor sanitary conditions of the majority of their population. There needs to be an urban revolution on a global scale to protect city populations from current and future pandemics. To radically change this reality, there will have to be re-urbanization of slums and / or relocation of populations in critical areas and massive investment in basic sanitation, in the collection, transport and final disposal of solid waste, in public transport infrastructure, in urban infrastructure to face floods and health infrastructure. Governments were surprised all over the world by the pandemic of the new Coronavirus, which is why they had no plans to deal with the new conditions imposed by the pandemic in cities that function poorly in the vast majority of countries.

Regarding the need for changes in the process of development of society imposed by the pandemic of the new Coronavirus, it became evident with the fact that the pandemic is spreading more in countries where there is more economic and social inequality. There is a need to reduce the economic and social inequality in the countries of the world, which has worsened with the pandemic of the new Coronavirus. It is necessary to improve the distribution of income and increase investment in the social area, such as housing, basic sanitation, education and health. Governments need to adopt social and solidarity economy and creative economy policies to combat unemployment. The social and solidarity economy constitutes a new way of organizing work and economic activities in general, emerging as an important alternative for the inclusion of workers in the labor market where profit maximization is no longer the main objective, giving rise to maximization quantity and quality of work. The creative economy refers to activities with socioeconomic potential that deal with creativity, knowledge and information, with the creation, production and commercialization of creative goods of a cultural nature and innovation such as Fashion, Art, Digital Media, Advertising, Journalism, Photography and Architecture. In order to combat hunger and misery that spread around the world with the new Coronavirus pandemic, the policy of distributing universal basic income must be adopted to meet the needs of the poor and vulnerable populations that struggle for their survival. In order to avoid social conflagration, social democracy should be implemented, wherever possible, in Scandinavian molds to combat economic and social inequalities and exercise democracy to the highest degree since the Nordic countries are the ones that present the greatest economic progress and world social and where are the happiest people in the world according to the World Happiness Report 2020.

Regarding the end of the contemporary globalization process with the new Coronavirus pandemic, this was already evident with the impact of the new Coronavirus on the global economy and the paralysis of Chinese industries. The pandemic also revealed the risk of confidence in global production chains and brought protectionism back to life. As the virus spreads around the world, it makes China a little more fragile and worldwide dependence on it as "the factory of the world" more doubtful. The globalization of the disease happened with ships and airplanes that spread it very quickly on the planet. To protect themselves, the countries' immediate impulse was to retreat and raise barriers. We already see flight numbers dropping dramatically. In a way, this virus highlights the imbalance in globalization. More than factories returning to their country of origin, we see companies diversifying the supply chain so that they are no longer as dependent on a country, like China. The new Coronavirus can change the course of history. Its dissemination can be a decisive moment in the debates about how much the world could be integrated or separated. The crisis of the new Coronavirus worsened the crisis in the global economy that may be greater than the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Regarding the need for national self-reliance imposed by the new Coronavirus pandemic, this became evident with the dependence of all countries in the world that has been observed up to the present moment in hospital equipment, medicines, vaccines and even face masks, especially of China. Many countries in the world should pursue their self-sufficiency by abandoning the current, neoliberal and economic and financial globalization policy, responsible for global economic weaknesses and dependence on the outside, with its replacement by the development model that prioritizes production inside country the essential products and services for their economic and social progress. The breaking of dependence means active participation of the State in the planning of the national economy aiming at the development of the productive forces of the country and the domestic market, the domestic production in substitution of imported products and, also, for export, the development of its own technology and the formation of internal savings in the amount needed to not depend on foreign capital for investment. This strategy would provide for the expansion of the national economy with the generation of sufficient business and jobs to meet the country's needs.

Regarding the imperative need for investments in research for new vaccines against current and future pandemics, this was evident now with the new Coronavirus pandemic and, also, throughout history, because vaccines have helped to significantly reduce the incidence of various diseases. Today, vaccines are considered the most effective benefit-cost treatment in public health. The race to develop vaccines against the new Coronavirus meant that they were developed in about a year. Numerous vaccines have been and are being developed against the new Coronavirus by research teams at companies and universities around the world testing different technologies, some of which have never been used in a licensed vaccine before. This effort needs to be maintained to deal with current and future pandemics.

Regarding the imperative need for governments committed to combating current and future pandemics, this was evident in the study by the Lowy Institute, an independent and non-partisan international policy organization based in Sydney, Australia, which provides high quality research and different perspectives on the international trends that shape Australia and the world, that has shown that most countries have not acted effectively in combating the new Coronavirus. The survey was based on six criteria: 1) total confirmed cases; 2) total deaths; 3) confirmed cases per million inhabitants; 4) killed per million inhabitants; 5) level of testing; and, 6) cases confirmed by tests. The study points out that Brazil is the worst country in the world in the fight against COVID-19 and that the most effective government management against the pandemic was carried out in New Zealand, whose first case recorded in the country occurred on February 28 of a patient who returned from Iran. Gradually, the country started to register more cases, until reaching the first death on March 29. At the same time, the government defined that it needed to act firmly to contain the virus in its initial stage to prevent its spread. He immediately adopted the “lockdown”, implemented on March 25 when no one entered the country anymore and the population had to follow strict isolation rules. Schools and non-essential businesses were closed, agglomerations prohibited, and any travel that was not strictly necessary became non-recommended.

The crisis management by the New Zealand government was proactive in going after the virus patients and not waiting for them to get to the hospital. There was an emphasis on tracking contacts, with the expansion of the workforce dedicated to this task. Most of that work was done over the phone. When someone was diagnosed with Covid-19, their closest contacts are identified and contacted directly, so that they are aware of the risk of being infected so they can adequately isolate themselves and not spread the virus further, and they can also look for a test to have a diagnosis precocious. None of these efforts would be possible if New Zealand were not engaged in testing its population against Covid-19, which allowed them to understand the disease and to take timely and effective actions. With this, they were also able to identify mild and asymptomatic cases, reflecting a very low lethality in the country. It also made it possible to identify cases early, allowing people to isolate themselves before they spread the virus widely. More than just testing a lot, the country was effective in processing those tests.

The result of these measures is that New Zealand has now returned to normal life within the country, with only a few small precautions, since the virus, at this point, no longer seems to circulate within the territory. The policy now is, not only to control the disease in the country, but the lack of control coming from abroad. For this reason, the government has redoubled its attention to those who enter its territory. Only New Zealand residents and citizens can enter the country (with rare exceptions), but they must also comply with some restrictions such as being isolated for two weeks. The health system remains vigilant against the virus, however, even without active cases. There is still an emphasis on testing and tracking contacts. In addition, the government continues to ask for support from the population, promoting basic hygiene (touching at the elbow fold, washing hands regularly with soap and water or gel alcohol and self-isolation in case of illness) and the use of registration applications of places visited by the population.

Unlike New Zealand, Brazil is the worst country in the world in fighting the pandemic of the new Coronavirus because there was no firm and quick action by the Bolsonaro government when the first case emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and even after the first case in Brazil in 2020. On the contrary, the response was slow and small. The pandemic spread quickly and there was no coordination of actions by the Bolsonaro government. This is the most important point. The health system in Brazil places responsibilities on all federated entities: municipalities, states and the Union. The greatest responsibility lies with the federal government, which has access to a larger budget and has more qualified technical staff to coordinate the necessary actions. The Bolsonaro government was supposed to coordinate the Unified Health System (SUS), but it washed its hands as Pilate did in the crucifixion of Christ. There is no coordination by the federal government because it did not create plans to contain the pandemic, did not offer guidelines, did not talk to the population, did not advertise in the media instructing the population on what to do and how to protect themselves from the virus. On the contrary, what was seen was a denialist speech from the beginning and that continues even after a total of about 350 thousand deaths with 4 thousand deaths per day by Covid-19. This lack of coordination is very problematic in Brazil, which has more than 5,000 municipalities, most of them medium and small. When the Bolsonaro government does not take on coordination, it is the governors and mayors who have to make the decisions that need the greatest framework of knowledge and technicians. This explains the fact that Brazil is the worst country in the world in the fight against the new Coronavirus.

In addition to the exemplary case of New Zealand, Vietnam, Taiwan, Thailand, Cyprus, Rwanda, Iceland, Australia, Latvia and Sri Lanka are on the block of good practices. European countries, such as Germany and Italy, are in intermediate positions in the table, respectively in the 55th and 59th places. The United Kingdom, France and Spain have worse performances in the face of the pandemic 66th, 63rd and 78th positions. Brazil's performance is worse than that of its neighbors Chile (89th), Bolivia (93rd) and Colombia (96th). The United States is in 94th position and China was not included in the ranking due to the lack of data on testing. The poor performance of most governments in the world in combating the new Coronavirus results from the gap that exists between what science affirms and what government officials decide and they are reluctant to adopt the “lockdown” and other rigid measures of social detachment necessary to combat the pandemic. Social detachment is a bitter medicine with painful side effects for society and the economy, but it is the only way to contain the pandemic, scientists say. Still, many governments embrace flexibility in combating the pandemic against science guidance.

These are, therefore, the lessons learned from the pandemic of the new Coronavirus and which should serve as a basis for reordering the society in which we live to be successful in tackling future pandemics.

* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globaliza??o (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,https://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globaliza??o e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, S?o Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporanea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2010), Amaz?nia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, S?o Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econ?mico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudan?a Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revolu??es Científicas, Econ?micas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Inven??o de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associa??o Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).