LESSONS FROM UKRAINE: REALITY CHECK ON AI AND ROBOTICS (Maj Gen Harvijay Singh, SM)

While ‘Technology Ahead Nations’ were predicting victory in future wars riding AI and Robotics, Ukraine happened. It has a wakeup lesson: the ‘Bite’ still hurts more than the ‘Byte’.

In the modern world overwhelmed by technology, it would be sacrilege to audit the role of AI and Robotics in warfare. However, with Europe witnessing a devastating attrition war and mighty USA hurriedly retreating from Afghanistan, it is prudent to do so. While this account is not ‘future blind’, conclusions are based on ‘Epilogism’ - inferences which move entirely within the domain of visible evidence, simply accumulation of facts without generalization.

Technology can be sharp and surgical, But, if there are no well-trained battle inoculated men and women behind the machines, you are eating soup with a knife: slow and messy and you can hurt yourself if not careful.

A fancy prediction of wars being ‘Short and intense’ has not stood the Ukraine test. A similarly prediction on the influence of AI and Robotics in warfare is perhaps being overstated ahead of time. AI enabled systems like drone swarming, command and control decision-making support systems and a few autonomous weapon systems at best remain ‘demonstrative’ under peaceful and favourable conditions.

AI to work like the human mind is still a few decades away. Current is AI that generates statistical models to accomplish specific tasks, solving tough computational problems?through?search,?heuristics?and?probability; the hyperbole being created is possibly premature and industry driven.

The epic Russian defeat in Kiev happened because of the amazing in-ability of the Russian Forces to perform basic military tasks and battle procedures. The overconfident Russians reached a dead end when faced by the overcharged Ukrainians who fought with whatever they could throw at the Russians. The war has since taken its due course: it is bloody and violent, it is destructive, modern technology tools have won some and lost some. There has however been no visible intense technology vs technology contest to draw evidence from this, the biggest conflict of the 21st Century.

?Lessons

·????????While there is little doubt that whoever has significantly superior technology will have considerable advantage in future conflicts, technologies must still be seen with skepticism before they are allowed to make autonomous military decisions.

·????????Technology predictions are often hyped to exhibit overly-optimistic outcomes via high grade multimedia presentations and flashy lab settings. Caution: When military leaders join this glamour clamor, the politicians and bureaucrats gleefully kick-start replacing soldiers with gadgets.

·????????Is conventional warfare passé? Are collateral damage and attrition barbaric and illegal? Will there be no refugees now?…… if the answer is ‘NOT YET’, then - gardez cette garde - keep that guard up.