Lessons from Morrison’s defeat for Perrottet’s Coalition.

As the political adage goes, oppositions don’t win elections – governments lose them.?

On 25 March 2023, New South Wales will head to the polls and render their verdict on the Perrottet Coalition Government.?

Seeking a fourth term always presents challenges, perhaps none more than ensuring a robust policy agenda to demonstrate progress and invigoration.

On any measure, the Perrottet Government is deserving of a fourth term.?

The Liberals and Nationals have transformed New South Wales, restoring its strong economy, delivering record investment in infrastructure, and guaranteeing essential services, again with record funding for our hospitals and schools.?

But in politics, having done the job, even if done well, does not guarantee electoral success.?

The art of politics is about understanding and responding to voters.?

People want to know that their government listening, and that they understand the issues confronting households.?

The reality for Perrottet and his chargers is that they govern in minority, face uncertain economic times with real cost of living pressures impacting families and businesses, and are seeking support from an electorate that increasingly is turning away from the major political parties.?

As evidenced from the recent Federal Election, voters have found the confidence to send a message on issues that matter most to them, be it climate or integrity in politics, being sound economic managers no longer carries the gratitude and support it once did.?

That’s where several lessons can be gleaned from the recent poll, which saw Anthony Albanese and Labor secure the barest of majorities with a record low primary vote, and the Liberals lose traditional voters from their heartland in droves.?

The NSW election presents a more traditional political battle, one between the Coalition and Labor.?

The impact of the ‘teal independents’ is lessened through electoral expenditure caps, optional preferential voting and a State Government that has shown leadership on climate change and emissions reductions, bolstered the state’s Independent Commission against Corruption and delivered strong female leadership in the Premiership of Gladys Berejiklian.?

The political maths shows that to secure a fourth term (in majority), the Government needs to win seats.?

While much focus falls on the effectiveness of political campaigns, including the ground game and digital and media presence – the challenge to avoid the fate of the Morrison Government is threefold.?

First, the NSW Government must demonstrate that they are listening to female voters.

The departure of Gladys Berejiklian has left a hole that the Government must address.?

Federally, the Resolve Political Monitor showed females less likely to vote Liberal (-5%), less likely to nominate Scott Morrison as Preferred Prime Minister (-9%) and less likely to nominate the Liberals as best to perform in issues affecting women (-13%).?

To address this, the Coalition needs strong female candidates in both key and safe seats and increase female representation in the Coalition’s Party Room.

Across the Government there are stand out performers, including Natalie Ward, Natasha Maclaren-Jones, Sarah Mitchell and Steph Cooke – greater female representation will ensure the Coalition reflects the broader community and remains relatable in the eyes of the electorate.?

Second, efforts must be made to reconnect with the state’s multicultural communities, in particular voters with Chinese heritage.

The Federal election saw a number of seats with a high proportion of Chinese heritage suffer significant swings, and the Liberal losses of Reid, Bennelong and North Sydney.?

One can assert that geopolitical issues in the Pacific, and an increasing negative rhetoric against the Chinese Communist Party contributed to this result, as did the notion that multicultural communities can be taken for granted, demonstrated by Labor’s decision to install Kristina Keneally as their candidate in Fowler, an electorate with a large percentage of Vietnamese Australians. Keneally was roundly rejected by locals with the election of Independent Dai Le.

Australia is the most successful multicultural nation in the world, and Sydney is the jewel in that crown, Australians with multicultural heritage must feel at home, and welcome, and that their contribution to their communities and our nation is valued.?

Lastly, and perhaps the most important of these challenges, is the need for local MPs to truly understand and represent their electorates.?

Many communities over the past two years suffered tremendously through COVID related lockdowns. Despite these decisions being based on health advise, there is no denying that it contributed to a sense of two Sydney’s, the Government will need to work to address the concerns of families and businesses who bore the brunt of these lockdowns to protect Greater Sydney.?

Increasing cost of living pressures, now hardened by interest rate increases will hit many in key electorates hard – there must be a comprehensive plan to relieve these pressures, including addressing higher energy prices and a conversation on land tax reform. Perrottet’s pre-Budget announcement of toll relief is welcomed, but practical support for families must go further and hit the hip pocket.?

There are always lessons to take out of elections, these may be simple principles, but assuring the electorate that the Government is listening, understanding and responding to the challenges facing voters will count when people cast their ballots in March.?