Legacy vs Start-Up - which is best?

Ford VS Arrival

With the arrival in April 2022 of the LONG awaited e-Transit I thought it was time to properly consider this important question of which is best – Legacy or Start-Up (Ground up) Electric Vehicles.

Over 100 years ago Ford was created and over 50 years ago the humble Ford Transit Van was created. It has been, and remains the most iconic of brands, servicing the needs of the worlds tradesmen, fleet operators and public sectors! In terms of volume, over 8 million of these vehicles have been produced second only to the VW Transporter. That said, in the UK it has always topped the seller list.

Arrival, the British, all new and shiny Bus and Van start-up, has been around since 2015, around the time of Ford Transits 50th birthday! They propose to deliver their first Van to the market later in 2022, with pre-production models being launched for trial in the first half of this year, all being well. They have recently been valued at $13.4 BILLION following their launch on the Nasdaq exchange in America and everyone appears enthralled with this new kid on the block. With players like Ford, Mercedes-Benz, VW and Stellantis already dominating this market, surely they must be mad!? Both the investors, and Arrival! Why would they ever think the could pull this off? Well, in a word, ELECTRIC!

I think one of the drivers for this focus on the EV Start-Up is the success of Tesla. If you rewind 5 years there was a few Teslas on the road and a degree of both fuss and scepticism in equal measure. When you consider them now, they are the most valuable OEM(Original Equipment Manufacturer) of them all, valued at almost $800 Billion which is the combined value of the next 7 manufactures including VW and Mercedes. Ford are not even in the top 10! When Arrival come to market with a focus on ground up innovation without any baggage, or legacy as we like to call it, then people clearly have one eye on the Tesla story and FOMO kicks in – “Fear Of Missing Out” for those of without a teenager handy! It is also the fact they are bringing a vehicle to market fully focused on solving the problem of electrifying a Van. First of all, it does not have to work around any legacy architecture and second of all there no thought about Cars, it just a dedicated approach to all the needs of the Van operator. Efficiency, productivity, payloads, capacity, reliability, range and charging speeds. Add into that, highly durable body panels, increased safety and improved driving environment you have an unbeatable formula, don’t you? Well this Van has been a long time coming, it is unproven and has no dealer network which combined gives some concerns for fleet operators. This could mean a slow wider take up beyond the partner companies already invested like UPS.

So why have I compared the Ford to Arrival and not a Mercedes or VW, well for the simple reason that Ford, until now, have been the only manufacturer yet to get a fully electric, a so called BEV (battery electric vehicle), onto the market. Now that the iconic, market defining, Transit will be available in a matter of months, are they too late? They have been a long time “launching” this product, with the original announcement being made in Nov 2020 or thereabouts some 18 months ahead of when it would actually be ready. I personally was quick to belittle such a strategy and bemoan the timescales, one from frustration that such a recognisable and well-loved brand could be so slow but also out of genuine concern that it may be too little too late! We are a nearly through he waiting period and Ford now have working driveable products ready and even been trialling with a variety of customers. I sadly missed a chance to drive the vehicle due to a last minute Covid shut down, which I have to say I was gutted about although have managed to sneak an all to brief drive at another event.

So what can we expect when the new eTransit rolls off “the line”, (which is one place it has a significant advantage on the start-ups of this world) Well, it’s a Transit… “No-one ever got fired for buying a Transit”, so there is an element of the "sensible option". Surely though there has to be more doesn’t there? Well, good news, it seems there actually is. The only other EV in the Ford line up is the Mustang Mach-e which is doing extremely well. In fact it already has a world record under its belt for traveling from John-o-Groats to Lands End with just 45minutes of charging. This is an electric vehicle that can go a long way on a charge and clearly get energy back in pretty quickly! This is exactly what vans need. Ford claim a 196 mile range which, when I heard the 67kWh battery size, I dismissed it as fantasy! I am now a little more cautious and am actually willing them to be right! WLTP combined cycle of course, no smoke and mirrors please Ford! The spec will be good and the drive and cabin everything you would expect, with some EV related differences but one thing you can be sure of is, it will be here on these shores rolling out to customers in a matter of months.

So which is best

I love the aspiration of Arrival, the blueprint, the consideration of Van operations with new body parts that don’t bend and break like steel, reducing downtime and keeping vans operational. Focus on making the repair and replacement of parts quick, the connectivity, the electric from the ground up approach. All brilliant in principle. Frankly if they get it right and can deliver volume it could be a slam dunk, in a market that is desperate for true innovation. I just need to see it happen, get over the line, deliver the goods, actually produce something!

Ford have a tried and tested product, one of the best. They may be slow in getting to market but they will be producing vehicles and delivering to customers very soon. They know how to do this, and at scale. Their electric credibility is good, based on the first attempt on the car side, and they have probably the most powerful customer base in the Van world and a large dealer network.

Who will win? Only one way to find out… Bring on the deliveries!