Lebanon’s Lebanon in the Claws of Israel’s and Iran’s Lebanon

It is not clear whether the messages sent out by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard are the result of serious self-confidence in the ability to conclude deals that guarantee consolidating Iran’s control of Lebanon through Hezbollah, or whether they stem from Iran’s panic over its inability to escape accountability. What is terrifyingly astonishing though is that Iran’s leaders this week decided that Beirut’s cataclysm is an opportunity to increase their influence, and that they do not see the uncovering of their use of Beirut Port to stock dangerous munitions to be a problem. IRGC leaders are proud of their strategy, blessed by the Supreme Leader himself, based on preventing at any cost the loss of Iranian control over Lebanon, even if that means making deals with the devil. Indeed, Israel seems content with Iran’s control over Lebanon, especially after the explosion at Beirut’s port, as part of a rotten accord based on covering up Israel’s role in the blast in return for covering up Iran’s stockpiling of explosives at the port. Neither side had anticipated the sheer magnitude of what happened, a veritable crime against humanity in the Lebanese capital. Now, Israel wants Iran to contain Hezbollah’s activities in return for Iran eventually letting Israeli annexation of more Palestinian territories pass, regardless of rhetorical denunciations (Under a new UAE-Israeli deal, annexation has now been stopped, but Israel has said it will “suspend” and not permanently end its annexation plans. Annexation is a delayed priority for Israel, and it has the blessing of both the US and Russia).

The Trump administration remains preoccupied with the election and ongoing effort to prevent Iran from freeing itself of an international arms embargo as well as the sanctions. Despite the importance of the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State David Hale to Beirut, Lebanon is not a US priority, which remains as ever Israel. Russia for its part is allied to Iran in Syria militarily and in Lebanon politically, but also has excellent relations with Israel and is willing to cover up its involvement as well as any deals it strikes. China is only interested in Iran’s interests in Lebanon. France is trying to play a role, but the Iranian strategy is seeking to pre-empt it, while Turkey, which is confronting France in Libya, finds itself on the same side as Iran to prevent Paris from winning in Lebanon.

While the international community sends aid and sheds tears for Lebanon, no one is really helping Beirut investigate what really happened. No one is trying to hold accountable the president of Lebanon, who admitted of having known about the ammonium nitrate at the civilian port, and acted in violation of national security and his constitutional duties. The president has rejected an international inquiry into the blast, while no one at the official level is seriously demanding even a fact-finding mission. More importantly, no one is speaking about the maze of tunnels under the Lebanese capital, not just in south Lebanon where this may be justified in the name of resistance. In Beirut, the tunnels are designed for explosives, munitions, and smuggling to serve Iran, not Lebanon, while the world is silent and failing to work to prevent another disaster by insisting on revealing the full facts or querying Iran. Even the Arab countries have placed themselves on the margin of international deals being struck over the rubble of Beirut, under which many bodies are still buried.

It is very difficult to assail the optimism of some Lebanese who believe that the Beirut blast will change the status quo to the better. Yet the first outcome of the explosion, after the death, destruction, and dispossession, is the accelerating exodus of Lebanon’s youths, whose hopes in a normal future have been shattered. The disastrous economic collapse also continues, under the surviving corrupt political regime dominated by a ruling class accustomed to riding waves of violence and destruction to consolidate their powers. Now, Hezbollah has become the leader of that pack, with a strategy of consolidation made in Iran.

According to reports coming out of Tehran via trusted sources, the strategy for consolidating Iranian influence in Lebanon by capitalizing on the ‘window of opportunity’ created by the port blast will seek to guarantee the victory of Hezbollah and its allies in any future parliamentary election through heavy financing of Hezbollah, benefiting fully from the fragmentation of the opposition, betting on the weakness of the protest movement, and advancing an Iranian plan for the reconstruction of Beirut. In other words, the Iranian strategy is based on presenting Hezbollah as the sole guarantor of Lebanon’s stability, independence, and sovereignty, and the only saviour of Lebanon.

The Russians are convinced of the validity of this logic, according to a source in Moscow, especially in the light of the divided ranks of Lebanon’s political factions. There is also interest in complying with the mood in the Lebanese street in favor of early elections, which Hezbollah would respond to with readiness, pulling the rug from under the feet of those demanding snap elections but only after Tehran guarantees the flow of cash to the group and its allies. According to informed sources, the Iranian leaders continue to believe that President Michel Aoun suits their interests. Iran’s strategy also includes limiting the political influence of the Lebanese army, which has now been entrusted with emergency powers in Beirut.

Iran is not concerned by the moves made by French President Macron to rescue Lebanon, believing he does not have the ability to follow through with practical steps and help manage political life in Lebanon. Iran also believes the United States is de facto absent from Lebanon because of the presidential election and its deferral to Israel when it comes to decisions about Lebanon. But Israel does not seem to be a source of concern for Israel either. As long as Iran makes sure Hezbollah will not harass Israel, Israel will remain uninterested in Lebanese domestic politics, as its current goal is merely to avoid having another hostile state along its border. In Israel’s calculations, Hezbollah is the key to ensuring this, while Israel also believes Hezbollah will eventually seize full control of Lebanon. For Israel, the priority now is to pacify the border with Lebanon, and later, the priority will again be annexation of Palestinian territories.

The regional-international landscape at this stage appears as follows: Israel has delayed swallowing up more Palestinian territories, which was proceeding with American, European, Russian, and Arab non-objection. Iran is swallowing up Lebanon amid Russian, Chinese, and Israeli complicity, American indifference, and European and Arab helplessness. Russia is swallowing up Syria enabled by Israeli assistance and lobbying of US circles, in return for Russian backchanneling with Iran over Lebanon.

The American relative absence from the scene means the US is not willing for fight over Lebanon even in light of the catastrophe that struck Beirut. Lebanon is now at a dangerous crossroads, stuck between the folds of ruthless international deal making. The only priority for the Trump administration is to extend the arms embargo on Iran at the UN Security Council, but the awful truth is that Iran is using Lebanon to manufacture banned weapons and smuggle weapons through tunnels under the port, airport, and other civilian infrastructure with the consent of Lebanon’s top leaders and the ruling class, who are treasonously violating Lebanon’s national security.

However, what if Iran’s strategy is actually an attempt to ward off the panic it feels of the possibility of not escaping accountability this time? What if its goals are factored in and what if it will be possible to foil them? It may be necessary for the Lebanese street not to absolve any complicit party from accountability – beginning with Lebanon, then Israel, Iran, Russia and the US. These parties may be exposed through a patient, coherent strategy. Only then can Beirut be avenged and Lebanon preserved as Lebanon for Lebanon, and not Lebanon for Israel and Iran.

The speech delivered two days ago by Hezbollah Secretary General coupled with the visit of Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohamad Jawad Zarif confirm that Iran’s strategy has been effectively set in motion. A visit with a clear, forthright, and daring header: this is our Lebanon and we will not relinquish it. This is our Lebanon, in our image, according to our reflection, by virtue of our doctrine, in accordance with our masterplan and under the authority of our arms. This is our Lebanon in spite of all those who do not wish it in this image. Our Iranian Lebanon, that we owe to the President of the Republic Michel Aoun, his son-in-law Jibran Bassil, and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

David Hale, the US Undersecretary of State, arrived in Lebanon to assess and listen, he said, and expressed several messages that left some of the Lebanese gasping in hope for some mercy and reassurance. The serious indication Iran’s political opponents see in Trump’s foreign policy concerning Lebanon is the rumored scaling up of harmful sanctions to include Hezbollah and Iran’s allies in Lebanon, the likes of Aoun, Berri and Bassil. Until then, Teheran shall pursue the implementation of the Revolutionary Guard’s strategy and the Iranian leaderships would have won the bet on the American decay ahead of the elections and the US reputation of dispensing with friends.

Those expecting French president Emmanuel Macron, to return next month carrying the political roadmap for Lebanon’s future are overly optimistic. The man is sparing no effort indeed, but he will not be able to bring about any radical change without a commitment from the European states and the US to a full-fledged strategy and plan to counter Iran’s strategy and plan for Lebanon. Not an easy task amidst the current economic recession and as all priorities are monopolized by the fear from covid-19. The world has priorities. No positive outcome shall be expected unless the Lebanese themselves embark on a journey to change their fate and get emancipated from that fate written in Teheran with the blood of innocent Lebanese. Fears of civil war shall never be underestimated, but they have become entrenched in Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard’s strategy to subdue the Lebanese and submit them to the Islamic Republic’s version of Lebanon. To that end, the Lebanese youth are being “driven out” and only remain those unable to object. 

Beirut the capital finally assassinated. Now, Lebanon’s assassination has begun. The disobedient Lebanese may be left with only one of two choices, bear the cost of capitulation and assassination, or take the costly path of confrontation to reconquer life.