Leaving a self-delusional country in decline to live in a tiny but hugely better one
On Friday, October 20, I'll leave Germany for good. I already reached the conclusion in 2017 that I wanted to get out, and it had implications for various decisions I subsequently made (such as not to buy any new real estate and to sell what I had). Now everything has been arranged, and I find it incredibly hard to imagine that I'd ever want to return except for intermittent and short visits. And I fully intend to renounce German citizenship in the mid term.
Originally, I wanted to move to the United States. In late 2018, I started to spend an extended period there, but the plan I had at the time (a new project) didn't work out. In late 2019, I had a new plan in place that a top-notch U.S. immigration law firm (whose clients include many Big Tech corporations) was very confident would work, but then came the pandemic. I was shocked to see Donald Trump in a state of denial only because of its impact on his prospects for re-election, and postponed my plans. Meanwhile it turned out that I can easily network with people in the U.S. via video conferencing and have to travel there maybe once a year on average. That widened my range of choices, but I had to wait for the right juncture at which I would want to do a fresh new start, with a new focus, in a new location.
Those long, cold, and dark winters are part of what I don't like about Germany. That's the only one of the factors that made me want to leave that politicians and society (including the business environment) cannot be blamed for. Last winter, I decided that I would do my research and then visit several countries between the spring and the fall of 2023 to which I might want to relocate with a view to what I plan to do next -- and to make my choice after exploring those options.
In the summer I started to work down my list. Clearly at the top was the Principality of Monaco. I had been to the C?te d'Azur on numerous occasions since 1991 (Software Publishers Association Europe Conference in Cannes). I knew about the high security standard in the Principality, the generally very high quality of life, and a very important reason for which it topped my list was that I finally wanted to become fluent in French. I didn't learn that language in school (where I got only five years of English BTW -- 7th through 11th grade), but just like I taught myself Spanish, I also learned quite a bit of French and never used translations when I analyzed French court rulings, regulatory decisions, or policy papers. Still, it's a different thing to practice it every day. I talked about the Microsoft - Activision Blizzard deal to gamers in English, Spanish, and German, but answered French questions only in writing. In a year from now I want to be able to do French-language podcasts and YouTube interviews.
Instead of an intercontinental tour, a single trip to Monaco--including a scheduled meeting with the country's super-helpful Bureau d'accueil (Welcome Office)--enabled me to make my determination. No need to look elsewhere. I told the Welcome Office during the meeting that I was going to do it. Regardless of what is going on elsewhere, Monaco would obviously be an incredibly enticing place to live for a variety of reasons.
Even if the choice hadn't been this easy, staying in Germany was definitely not an option at a juncture where I want to start a new phase of my life. Now, I do understand that some Germans will read this, and a high percentage of them will have professional and/or private reasons that would practically prevent them from emigrating even if they wanted out. In fact, most of the Germans I've talked to about my impending relocation have indicated they'd like to do the same, but only one of them is actively working on that plan at this point. Some told me they'd like to do it, too, but believe they just can't.
So, apart from what makes Monaco uniquely great, what (other than the weather) makes me leave Germany; why was it already a question of "when" not "if" back in 2017; and why can't I imagine returning even in 10 or 20 years?
I'll start discussing it with a focus on only Germany and then expand the focus to the EU as a whole.
Germany has a number of structural problems in economic, societal, and political terms that realistically won't be solved in my lifetime and guarantee a further and steady, at some point possibly accelerating, decline. Things will have to get a lot worse before they will--if ever--get better. Many people like me who realize what's going wrong are simply going to emigrate, leaving behind those who don't (or don't want to) understand the issues -- and those who do, but can't or don't want to sacrifice what they have here.
Germans are delusional. They think their country has a strong and resilient economy that is fit for the future. They believe it's an attractive place for skilled immigrants. They're proud of their educational system. They assume Germany is a safe country. And they want the government to spend money as if the coffers were full. All of that is fostered by the country's political elite, which lies, misleads, distorts, and can count on support from most mainstream media. The notion that Germany is a pluralist democracy is one of many examples of self-delusion. State-owned media excel at reporting on soccer tournaments and some other topics, but are politically unbalanced--as are their private-sector competitors. Polls show that the Greens are by far the most popular party among the country's journalists. The quality of German political journalism is so abysmal that people should actually read foreign papers, such as NZZ Neue Zürcher Zeitung , to open their eyes.
Only G7 economy to shrink -- as a result of self-inflicted harm
In August, it became known that Germany was the only G7 economy to shrink in the 2nd quarter of this year. The government has been forced to change its growth forecast for 2023 from +0.4% to -0.4% . Even the UK, which is facing some post-Brexit challenges but in my opinion has a far brighter future than Germany, sees its economy grow again. On top of all other problems, Germany--as Merkel's reign of irresponsibility was followed by a government that depends on the Green Party--has sky-high energy costs. Inflation is higher in Germany than any comparable country, including its Western neighbors, because of energy costs, but Merkel's decision (just one of several major blunders) to shut down the country's last few nuclear reactors was, with only minor delay, implemented this year.
That is the height of irrationality. Merkel's decision was borderline irrational, but I'm not even sure that she--despite her policies having been among the worst that ever happened to Germany--would have actually carried out the plan in the face of sky-high inflation.
Energy-intensive industries are leaving. Numerous other businesses (for instance, restaurants) are suffering. Private households pay the hefty price of hypermoralism or, to put it bluntly, idiocies and incompetence.
Even climate activist Greta Thunberg favors nuclear energy. In Germany, there are too many calm and cloudy days. What they're actually doing now is to burn coal to generate electricity, and to import it from France, which overwhelmingly relies on nuclear power.
I had already made my decision to leave Germany in 2017, but if it had taken any further evidence that the country is crazy--and that its political system, meaning politicians as well as the electorate, is misguided or even insane--then I would just have to look at its energy policy.
A 19th/20th century automotive industry
The German economy still depends too much on the automotive sector. Politicians and some opinion leaders argue that "hidden champions"--medium-sized companies that are market leaders in certain niches--are the backbone of the economy, but the numbers make it clear that German exports still depend to a large extent on car (and car part) sales.
In 2017 I started telling people that Germany's automotive industry was going to lose to American and Asian rivals. The combination of the shift from combustion engines and the digital components--partly controlled by gatekeepers like Apple and Google--is just too much of a challenge for an industry that is slow to adjust and reluctant to understand. If I compare what I've heard and seen in Germany to what I know based on my many interactions with Americans and Asians, it's clear to me that German corporate culture is insufficiently results-oriented. The "Peter Principle" according to which people get promoted to the level at which they're too incompetent to earn a further promotion applies, as does the "cyclist" analogy: bowing to the ones above, kicking the ones below. What I've also learned is that German executives are often far more focused on misleading their superiors--such as by claiming they made a great deal when they actually overpaid--than on actually competing with external rivals. Too much politics.
Here, again, I already had those convictions in 2017, but I've seen them validated recently. I rented a Volkswagen Touareg for a weekend (I had actually chosen a BMW X5, but Sixt gave me that one). It's actually one of VW's most successful models, and I think it sucks. I rented a Volvo XC90 shortly thereafter, and it was better--but in various respects, Chinese electric cars beat all those European vehicles.
Political corruption and lack of expertise
For legal reasons I don't want to give specific examples here, other than mentioning that some German politicians got acquitted despite having made millions off the sale of face masks to governmental entities during the pandemic. I'd like to point to serious questions having been raised about a very, very high-ranking German judge, but that's too risky. The story involves a major German car maker that paid him a million a year while he was a member of parliament. It was presumably legal, which would only serve to show how broken the system is and how the mainstream media and the electorate let politicians get away with it.
Part of the problem may be that in my observation, most German politicians never had a successful career in the private sector, and many Greens, but by now also many Christian Democrats (CDU, CSU) and Social Democrats (SPD) --and even many Libertarians (FDP)--never held a real job. By comparison, no matter what their shortcomings may be in the eyes of their citizens, most U.S. politicians are accomplished people. Some very successful U.S. attorneys entered politics. In Germany, mediocrity abounds in that regard.
That problem is not new, but it was on full display during the recent electoral campaign in the southern German state of Bavaria. I didn't even participate in the election because I'm going to be out of Germany during and beyond the new term of that state parliament. There also was no reasonable choice on the ballot, plain and simple. The libertarian FDP's top-listed candidate claimed on posters that what he had to offer was "economic competence instead of beer tent populism." Out of curiosity, I looked up his bio and it turned out he studied political science until 2008. He started as a career politician, and only in 2017 (at which point he was already a well-known politician in the state) did he start some self-employed activity as a "strategy and communications consultant"... and that is actually the German party that, relatively speaking, sets the highest standard and attracts the most successful people.
This year, instead of casting my vote in an election, I decided to vote with my feet. There are way too many good-for-nothings in German politics, such as people who never finished any studies and the only job they ever held was at a call center. To be fair, I also met some very good people in the years when I engaged in a limited amount of lobbying related to patent policy (2004-2006) and sports governance (2007). They aren't all bad, but most of the politicians here are not particularly capable, and the problem is that they must hold on to their offices because they couldn't succeed in the private sector (unless they find ways to monetize their political connections).
Failure to defend the interests of those who already legally live in Germany
Partly for what I discussed in the previous section, German politicians are interested in anything but in achieving the best results--maximum security and high levels of prosperity--for their citizens. The political culture, partly attributable to history, is such that where not only Trump but also Democrats put America First, German politicians put their country last.
Hypermoralism, historic guilt, egalitarianism, and other factors result in politics that simply harm the country and the people who already (and legally) live and work in Germany.
Whether one wants to call it treason or simply stupidity, the effects are terrible.
As a result, good people leave for greener pastures. 3,000 German doctors are working in Switzerland now, and Germany increasingly recognizes degrees from universities in poor countries where the standard of education is simply not at a level with what one finds in Europe.
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Migration and the wrong language
Not only because I am now emigrating but also because of my many international friends--more than ever now thanks to my numerous interactions with gamers from around the globe--am I pro-migration, but pro-SELECTIVE migration. That's the key thing.
The question is not the color of someone's skin, to give one example. It's whether someone is likely to contribute to the economy. Besides those who make such positive contributions, a large country like Germany should, of course, accept a limited number of refugees if they truly are refugees. But the answer is never to leave the selection process to human traffickers. If someone's family pays $10K to put someone on a boat to Europe, with Germany typically being the preferred final destination, you don't help those who are truly in need (the "bottom billion" in the world live on something like $1/day, so they won't ever be able to afford trafficking)--and you don't get qualified people with marketable skills. Instead, you get a high percentage of those who seek to benefit from social welfare, and high crime rates in the end.
German migration policy is a major liability in three respects:
The third factor has various reasons, and the German language is one of them. It's at least twice as hard for a foreigner to learn as English (if the objective is to reach a certain level of professional fluency; at its highest level, English is actually a richer language), but not even 10% as beneficial -- and the likelihood of someone having learned at least some English in their home country is easily 1,000 times greater.
While I disagree on some other economic and social policy questions with Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the former MEP and member of the German federal parliament who has recently been appointed ambassador to Russia, he is right that Germany would have to make English an official language. In my opinion, they would even have to make it a rule that no public servant, not even in the smallest village, will be eligible for promotion unless and until a certain degree of fluency is certified.
None of that is going to happen anytime soon. Maybe it will happen when it's already too late. It may already be too late, frankly.
Public safety and law enforcement in general
German politicians are more interested in getting the police to sweep serious problems under the carpet and in distorting statistics than in facing the issues. Germany does have a violent crime problem, including gang violence. Teachers must increasingly be afraid of knife-wielding students. Even first responders often get threatened, beaten, and worse. And even in downtown Munich--with Bavaria being considered a "law and order" state, which is not a present reality--you see homeless people lying on the streets (not yet literally camping like in California, but that's probably just a matter of time).
Even Munich's suburbs, such as the one where I'm living now for another few days (12K inhabitants, less than 10 minutes by public transport from the western side of Munich), aren't really safe anymore. In this little municipality, people have been mugged in the early evening. I read about at least two such incidents, both of which sounded scary, just over the course of the last 12 months.
I try to walk at least 10K steps a day (which will be very easy in Monaco). Whenever I wanted another few thousand steps after dark, I actually drove to a well-lit area (in a quarter of Munich named Pasing) where there was still significant traffic at that time of day.
Archaic corporate governance
It's ridiculous that one needs to go to a notary public, who will read out the entire document aloud, for various purposes related to corporate governance such as founding a company, selling shares, or simply relocating to another city within Germany. It costs time and money--for nothing.
With more German politicians having studied law than any other subject, it's even harder to understand why such anachronisms haven't been addressed. But it may just have to do with the fact that the last thing they're interested in is making their country fit for the future.
Antiquated education system
I could give many more examples of where Germany's education system is outdated. In general, what they teach at public schools is not really determined based on what would be good for the country's economy: it's more about what teachers like, and universities (except for the less prestigious category, which is called "universities of applied science") focus on training people for an academic career instead of meeting the economy's needs.
Also, Germany is the only country I know where lawyers must actually go through several years of mandatory clerkship before they are even allowed to take the bar exam.
German schools clearly underperform whenever there are international benchmarks, and the results get worse every time a study such as TIMSS is conducted. While there are ever more stories of incredibly capable migrant kids (and I also mean current students, not just the stellar example of the founders of BioNTech SE ), the average level of German-language skills of migrants in German schools is a major part of the problem that drags down the education system as a whole, also for those who speak German natively or at that level.
Unsustainable pensions system
Over the course of the next 5-10 years, many "boomers" will retire, and there won't be enough--especially not enough skilled--young professionals to replace them. The pensions system, however, depends on the active workforce paying for retirees. The government already has to bridge a sizable gap, in no small part thanks to life expectancy, but that one is going to become a huge problem in 5-10 years' time.
That is not the kind of prediction that could turn out wrong. Demographics are highly predictable. And on top of it there are the brain drain and the low average performance of students that I mentioned further above, making it even less likely that the next generation of workers will generate enough income to pay for the pensions of a previous one.
The healthcare system also faces many problems, and not only the left wing but even some of the conservatives in name only such as Merkel don't like the fact that those who are privately-insured get better healthcare.
The EU angle
It says a lot that it's actually just some relatively impoverished countries that want to join the EU now.
The UK left. In Switzerland, resource-rich Norway, or the Principality of Liechtenstein, joining the EU is not an option that would get political support. Monaco obviously wouldn't want to become an EU member state, and agreed with the European Commission this summer that at this point even a privileged partnership wouldn't be possible due to the EU's insistence on certain free movement rules.
The problems I discussed with a view to Germany affect the EU at large. None of the countries I had on the list I mentioned further above was an EU member state. And should I ever leave Monaco, I almost certainly won't come back to the EU. I will spend some time in EU member states such as Austria, but I won't become a resident of the EU again in all likelihood.
The EU as a whole would have to make English an official language throughout the bloc. But that's even less likely to happen at the EU level than in Germany.
I could say a lot more about what's wrong with the EU, but will leave that for another day. For now, I am glad to leave a country that is going down the tubes, with people rearranging deck chairs and dancing on the Titanic. I am so thrilled to live in what I am convinced is the best place out there, starting in about a week from now. At this point I believe I'll stay there forever (provided they let me do that), but even if I were to leave at some point, there'd be a whole list of countries that I would choose over Germany. Any day of the week.