The Leaves Will Start Changing And So Will The Job Market

By Jack J. Kelly

It happens quickly. The temperature starts to drop. Leaves fall from the trees. You notice the skies turning grayer. It is disconcerting that it still feel like it's summer, but deep down inside you know everything is changing.

The memories of youth fill you with the both the dread and exhilaration of the back-to-school time period. Even as adults, we experience the twinge of regret over the loss of the summer, a little sadness, trepidation and, yet, hope of a new start. The kids go back to class and we adults summon up the strength and courage to return to business-as-usual in the office.

Selfishly, I look forward to September. As an executive recruiter, this time represents a return to the familiar steady rhythm of recruiting. During the summertime, the interview process is plagued by starts and stops due to everyone's vacation schedules. Just when a candidate gathers momentum in the search process, a key interviewer goes on vacation. When they return, another person is out of the office and can be found lounging on a beach. Then, the candidate takes their family on a trip to Disney.

The start of September substantially changes this pattern. It is an unwritten rule that it is acceptable to take your time off during July and especially late August. It is seen as rude and uncouth to coast through the summertime when things are generally slow and then go on vacation in September when the real work starts up again.

You would like to believe that hiring patterns are more sophisticated than being driven by the seasons and vacation schedules, but the they are not. Although I have seen a steady flow of interesting new jobs come in, met great candidates and made a number of placements, the pace was slow, winding, bumpy and—at times—brutally slow moving.

With the summer winding down, reality kicks in and you quickly recall that you actually hate your job. Over the summertime, it was easy to see past the mundane work, lack of opportunities to advance, rumors of layoffs, irritating co-workers, indifferent management and a mediocre company that is floundering. Your mind was focused on the nice weather and all the fun things you had planned. Now, you have no other choice than to confront this cold, cruel reality and will probably start to think about moving onto another job.

Since human resource professionals, executive management and hiring managers have been on vacations and generally working at a slower pace and enjoying half-day Fridays, there has been a pent-up demand brewing. With work now picking up, managers recognize and feel the pressure of having an opening and will expedite the hiring process to bring aboard new employees to alleviate the burdens of tasks and projects that were set aside over the last couple of months. Management will notice this pattern (and if they don’t, they will certainly hear complaints from their overworked employees) and realize that they should move quickly to tap into the market of new arrivals into the job market.

The stage is set to hire. Your team is back in the office and, presumably, well rested and ready to work. Candidates are returning full force into the job market. Both sides have a vested interest in making this happen.

Be advised, there is a only small window of time to hire. We have September, October and the first half of December. Once the winter holiday season starts, it is similar to the summertime (except for the cold and snow) in that everything slows down again.

There are other challenges to face in the autumn season. As we inch closer to the end of the year, bonuses and raises become an issue. In certain market sectors, such as Wall Street, bonuses play a big part in a person’s compensation. If someone anticipates a large bonus, they will want the hiring company to make good on what they will leave behind. Under best circumstances, if you interview in September, get an offer in October, then give two-plus weeks notice, you will only be working at the new company for about two months. The company is not keen on offering a full bonus for this short amount of time. Additionally, the job seeker will maintain that he/she will be expecting a raise and would want the company to factor that into the salary offer. The company may also question if they are really in line for a raise and, if so, is it as lush as the candidate purports it to be?

Although it is widely reported that we have full employment in the United States, companies don't act like this is a true fact. If there really is full employment, it would suggest that corporations would fight to get the best and brightest people. This should entail offering higher salaries to entice people to join their firm and not lose out to their competitors. The companies would also buy-out or guarantee bonuses to people who are switching jobs, but they are not doing this. Also, you would believe that the firms would raise the salaries for existing employees to keep them happy and remaining at the company. This is not happening either. 

It is a conundrum that while there appears to be plenty of job opportunities available, companies are generally not being flexible or generous with their compensation offers. In particular, companies are reticent to buyout bonuses and offer substantial increases in salaries to job candidates.

A new law passed in many states, and adopted in others, stating that companies cannot ask what a job seeker is earning or pry into their past salary history. The law was predicated upon the belief that people are placed in a financial disadvantage and low-balled when the company knows their compensation. The theory behind the law, in part, is that a person should be paid what they are worth notwithstanding what their current salary is at the time of the interview. The law has good intentions, but also has unintended consequences. The salary negotiations become similar to playing poker. Each party is not fully aware of the other person’s cards. There is an element of bluffing, lying, exaggeration and disbelief. Candidates feel that the company is not coming clean about the actual salary that could be paid and company representatives believe that job seekers are “swinging for the fences” trying to get a huge increase in pay. This leads, at times, to awkward negotiations, distrust and deals falling apart with bad feelings on both sides.

It is becoming pretty obvious that companies are trying to save money by moving people to lower-cost locations—both within the United States and to other countries. If the jobs are not relocated, technology is quickly deployed to displace costly human beings who demand silly and frivolous things, such as lunch breaks, holidays off from work and occasional chit-chat and gossip with colleagues. If these tactics don't save enough money, companies have embarked upon a campaign to push out experienced (code word for ‘older’ or ‘more seasoned’ employees).

So, goodbye summertime and welcome to the fall!

Please view my Forbes.com articles here.

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