Learn to read the waves

Of all places, one of the most useful lessons I’ve learned for my work has come from surfing.

I don’t profess to be a good surfer, but I’m a serviceable one. I don’t attribute it to my sense of balance--my innate clumsiness leaves much to be desired on a surfboard. It also didn’t happen because of my swimming ability; I can paddle just fine, but I am never going to win any races in the water. Really, any success I have enjoyed comes primarily from one thing: an ability to read the waves.

So much of surfing is observing the waves and picking the right one to catch. You can’t focus on the wave that is already upon you--there simply isn’t enough time to swing the board around and set up for a good ride. Instead, you must watch the series of waves that are coming, looking for the right conditions and position to be able to catch the best one. Sometimes that means passing on some of the smaller or choppier waves, going over or diving under them to avoid being swept away as they pass. Then, when you finally see that right wave, you set up: turn your board, paddle like hell, drop in, and hope it’s as good a ride as you anticipated. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t–either way, you turn around and do it all again.

What does any of this have to do with work as a practitioner??

In my two decades in the military and government, I’ve found that life as a practitioner, like surfing, has its waves. Those waves depend on the line of work, but they may be based on political calendars, budget cycles, or personnel turnover periods, among other things. To maximize opportunities for success, I’ve had to learn to read those waves for three key reasons.

First, I had to remember that I cannot control the waves. If you’re a practitioner, you are just one small part of a much bigger system, and no matter how hard you may try, you cannot bend that system to match your preferred timing, methods, or direction. If you attempt to do so, you will simply expend a lot of time, energy, and resources without ever really accomplishing anything. Conversely, if you aren’t actively paying attention to the waves that are coming, they will push you in directions you may not want to go.

I’ll use alliance management as an example. When I was working as an alliance manager in Japan, the reality I had to face was that domestic politics was going to influence decision making from my host nation counterparts. As such, it was imperative for me to learn about and track the political system, not because I was going to play politics, but so I could understand the interests, constraints, and restraints influencing my counterparts’ behaviors. What I found was that there were fairly consistent waves that would come based on the election calendar, the parliamentary schedule, bureaucratic personnel rotations, and the major holiday periods. By understanding those things, I could anticipate when there might be greater scrutiny of our efforts, pressure to get things done, or opportunities for new initiatives.?

The second reason is that if I wanted to catch a wave, I had to be prepared for it. That is true for anyone: if you want to take advantage of an opportunity, you must anticipate it, get yourself in the right position, and, when it approaches, take strong and immediate action to ride it out.

Once again reflecting upon my time as a U.S.-Japan alliance manager, the biggest wave I encountered was the Shinzō Abe administration’s decision to reinterpret Japan’s constitution to allow for limited exercise of collective self defense back in 2014. This decision would open up opportunities for new alliance roles, missions, and capabilities. At that time, my teammates and I could have sat there and let that wave push us wherever it would take us, but we examined it, anticipated risks and opportunities, and took action to maximize outcomes. Those outcomes were codified in the 2015 Guidelines for U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation, and given the success we had in its negotiation and implementation, I’d say we rode that wave pretty well.

The third reason is that I had to recognize that not every wave will produce the best ride and to remember that it just meant I needed to turn around and try again for the next one. At this point in my career, I have lost count of the number of times I’ve tried to get an initiative pushed through or a project completed. There are plenty of efforts that never materialized whether because the timing was wrong, there was not enough momentum, or I just didn’t execute well enough. But I do recall the many things that I’ve been able to accomplish because I kept at it and found the right waves to ride: new agreements concluded, better regulations and procedures instituted, and progress in seemingly intractable problem sets achieved simply because I kept paddling.

So, how can you learn to read the waves in your respective line of work?

It starts with looking at long range calendars and identifying the significant events, holidays, and personnel turnover periods. Pay attention to the fiscal year and budget cycles. Look for lull periods and windows where there will be high volumes of activity. Consider how long you may be working with a particular group of people and when they may be swapping out. When you do that, you’ll begin to notice certain waves already.?

As you spend more time in a role, you will start to get a feel for the other job-specific factors that influence the ebb and flow of the work environment. I encourage you to write those things down so you can refine your assessments over time.

Eventually, reading the waves in your work will become second nature. You will be able identify the right and wrong times to push certain things, and you will be more comfortable letting some waves pass while paddling hard to catch others. When you can do that, you will find yourself riding that wave towards the success you've been aiming to achieve.