Learn from history

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it". - Spanish philosopher Jorge Agustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana y Borrás

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive is piercing deep into Russian-controlled territory, the Kremlin should look back at a battle that took place 339 years ago.

The siege of Vienna

Acting on a long-held aspiration to conquest Vienna and impose Ottoman rule and customs on Austria, place a sympathetic government in power and expose the rest of Europe to invasion (Sounds familiar?), Grand Vizier Kara Mustapha Pasha marched on Vienna with 170'000 (Does the number sound familiar?) of what was considered to be the most fearsome troops of the time (Sounds familiar?), including a large contingent Janissaries (considered to be the most brutal special forces of the period - Sounds familiar?).

Several cities near Vienna (Perchtoldsdorf being a prime example), in spite of surrendering without opposition, were massacred (the level of déjà vu is becoming spooky). On the 14th of July 1683, the invaders laid siege to the city, asking for their surrender. Having learnt what happened to other cities that surrendered, the military governor of Vienna refused.

After nearly two months of mining and countermining by the sappers from both sides, relief forces arrived on the scene: 74'000 soldiers (including several regiments of Zaporozhian Cossacks), under the overall command of Jan III Sobieski, King of Poland. Several minor battles ensued, while the relief forces secured the northwest sector around Vienna.

On the 12th of September 1683, before sunrise, the Ottomans launched a spoiling attack on the relief forces, hoping to preempt them. They were repulsed, and the battle between infantries started in earnest. The Ottomans committed their first tactical mistake, concentrating their efforts in attempting to penetrate Vienna, leaving their right flank and a long logistical line exposed (Sound familiar?). This was promptly exploited by the relief force, which quickly advanced through the day, menacing the command post of the Ottomans by 16h00. The Ottomans started to fall back, in order to "regain better defensive positions".

At around 18h00, Jan III launched the largest cavalry attack of all history: 18'000 mounted troops, led by himself at the head of the the Polish Winged Hussars, came down the hillside onto the Ottoman, forces totally routing them. Less than 3 hours latter, the battle was over.

A lasting effect

Arguably, this battle marked the turning point in the rise of Ottoman power. Within 16 years, the Austrians liberated Hungary, Serbia and Transylvania. Control over overland trade routes to Europe was lost to the Ottomans, and the Austria-Hungarian empire was born.

The Ottomans? The Ottoman empire never truly recovered. Their generals were punished, and the janissaries were partly blamed for the defeat (which increased their dissatisfaction with their rulers' extravagant lifestyle, contributing to an attempted coup d'état in 1730).

The empire itself began a long period of stasis and then decline, culminating with its dissolution in 1922.

A parallel?

Well, that is up to you to decide. However, I believe that there are some remarkable similarities going forward:

• The current Russian invasion of Ukraine will mark an inflection point in Russia's power.
• The heartland of the Ottoman Empire was not occupied. The sight of Ukrainian troops on Russian soil is as unlikely.
• The military failure in Vienna planted the seeds for an uprising against the ruling power in Istanbul. However, it is also good to remember that the totalitarian regime in charge managed to put down the rebellion.
• The collapse of the Ottoman empire took quite a long time.
• Even after the collapse and the birth of the Turkish Republic, a relapse into expansionist nationalism is taking place. Similarly, after their eventual collapse, Russia is likely to try again after a certain period.