Leap of Faith Revisited

Appell Pie 2017 

Leap of Faith Revisited 

Ok, I’m going to do it. I feel as if I am on a high cliff overlooking the ocean on the Pacific Coast Highway in California. Below me are jagged rocks and in the water, if I clear the rocks, are sharks, jellyfish, barracuda and the talking heads from all of the TV networks. I am making the leap of faith. I hope I’m right. I think I’m right. I know I’m right. 

I am declaring that we have hit the bottom of the recession and the economy will start to rebound slowly at first and then with a boom. Are you asking yourself, “What on earth is this guy talking about?” I asked myself the same question before I decided to write this column. Here is what I think is happening.  

Today’s Restaurant was an exhibitor at the recent Florida Restaurant & Lodging Show in Orlando. (I know many established companies chose not to exhibit this year but we kept the larger booth.) Pessimists are running wild in society now and I understand why, but life has to go on and it will.  Many said, “Nobody goes to the Show anymore.” Wrong. The attendance at this year’s event was surprisingly strong on all three days despite the fact that the show was re-scheduled to Oct. and was on Wed. – Fri.  In fact it was so good that many of the companies that were first time exhibitors renewed for next year. I know that some former exhibitors just walked the show and saw their competitors doing business that they should have done.  

One reason for the good showing I believe is that there is a pent up demand for products. Businesses have used up their inventory and now they have to buy new parts or replacement equipment or go out of business. Most will choose to make the investment in their business, creating new jobs and increased sales. I have said all along that when the banks start to give loans, business will begin to expand. Remember that 2018 is an election year and the politicians know how to buy votes, regardless of the party. Follow the bank’s ability to loan, just before the election and watch the economy improve slowly at first as business regains its confidence and then I see a huge boom that will get us on the right track again. Tax reform will help too. 

What if I’m wrong? I was watching a Sunday morning Business show and one of the guests asked, “What would you do if tomorrow morning your business was gone?”  The point he was making was that you should have a back-up plan, which should include another income stream. If you are a restaurant owner you can consider off premise catering, if you are a manufacturer add another product line and if you run a trade newspaper you get involved with web based businesses as we have with Email Marketing, New Openings and Online Advertising. Create another business so you can provide for your family and put people to work while jump starting the economy. As the Boy Scouts motto says, “Always Be Prepared.” 

I hope I’m right, I think I’m right, I know I’m right. I have faith in the people of America. We are coming back.