Leading in a VUCA World: U is for Uncertainty (Part 2 of 4)
Alex Wallash, MA-ODL, ACC
Executive coach helping leaders and business owners thrive by working through the things that keep you up at night.
Look around, and it’s clear: we are living in uncertain times.
The near-term future of the United States feels increasingly unpredictable. Economic indicators send mixed signals. The workforce is evolving at breakneck speed, with AI disrupting industries faster than regulations can catch up. Social and political landscapes remain deeply divided, making long-term stability feel like a moving target.
We’re living in a VUCA world—one defined by Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. VUCA isn’t just one challenge with one solution. VUCA a framework that describes four distinct forces, each requiring a different approach.
Last week, we explored Volatility, which is the sudden, unexpected shift.?
This week, we’re exploring uncertainty: the absence of a clear path forward. Uncertainty when you know change is coming, but you don’t have enough reliable information to make confident decisions.
What Is Uncertainty?
Uncertainty isn’t just about feeling unsure, it’s about operating in an environment where past experiences are no longer reliable guides for the future. It’s what happens when you’re a business owner and see customer spending fluctuating unpredictably, unsure whether to invest or pull back. It’s when you’re a leader questioning whether your industry will be disrupted by automation faster than you can adapt.
Uncertainty is driving through dense fog, where you’re not able to see the turns the road will take.
Uncertainty stems from too little reliable data. There are gaps in information, blind spots in forecasts, and no clear patterns to rely on.
Ask yourself: ?? What critical decisions am I delaying because I don’t have all the answers?
Ask yourself: ?? Where in my work or or life does the future feel most uncertain?
Two (quite different) Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty
Waiting for perfect clarity generally is not an option. The world we live in is just too dynamic; always in motion. The pace of change in today’s world means that by the time you have all the information, the landscape has already shifted. Here are three approaches to consider when navigating uncertainty…
1. Strengthen Your Information Networks (the textbook strategy)
When traditional forecasting methods fail, the best move isn’t to predict the future, it’s to gather better information in real time. Research suggests that you and other leaders who invest in diverse information networks, across industries, markets, perspectives, and communities, are better equipped to reduce uncertainty.
That means talking to customers, analyzing market shifts, and paying attention to signals beyond your immediate environment. It means leaving one’s comfortable echo chamber. It means diversifying sources of insight so that decision-making isn’t based on a single, outdated model.
?? Ask yourself: Who are the people, teams, or sources I can tap into for insights??
?? Ask yourself: Whose perspective am I not currently considering?
2. Examine How You Relate to Uncertainty (the unconventional strategy)
The ancient Stoic philosophers say you can take any situation you are in and place it into one of three buckets: 1) things you have absolute control over, 2) things you have some control over, and 3) things you have no control over.?
If you play with that for a bit, you might realize that almost everything in life is something you have some or no control over. (Uggg. Sitting with that feels like I just ate a gallon of pudding.)
I think control and predictability are two illusions we often project to be much bigger than they actually are.?
Perhaps one of the only things we have truly have absolute control over is how you choose to respond to what the world sends your way.?
I have no control over whether or not it rains, today, but I can choose whether or not to wear a rain jacket.
?? Ask yourself: How do I currently relate to uncertainty?
?? Ask yourself: How do I want to respond when I face uncertainty?
A Mindset Shift for an Uncertain Times
Uncertainty isn’t going away—it’s increasing. Whether it’s economic trends, policy changes, or industry disruptions, we are moving into a world where predictability is the exception, not the norm. I wish this wasn’t the case, but I think it’s true.?
The real question isn’t How do I remove uncertainty? but How do I make decisions in the midst of it?
Next Up: The “C” in VUCA is for Complexity – When There’s Too Much Information
In the next part of this series, we’ll explore Complexity…how to make sense of a world where the challenge isn’t a lack of information, but an overwhelming amount of it.?
See you next week!
Thank you for taking the time to read my article. Are you experiencing VUCA in your work these days? If so, DM me, let’s connect. I love supporting leaders and business owners navigate their VUCA lives with calm and ease.?
Image: created by DALL-E, after it read this article.