Leading in Uncertain Times: How to Make Decisions with Limited Information
Pauline Heurtevent, M.Sc., MBA
Senior Manager at Deloitte | National Leader, Technology Operating Model | Leadership Mentor & Advocate for Women Leaders
In a world defined by unpredictability, leaders are increasingly tasked with making critical decisions amid uncertainty. Whether it’s navigating economic turbulence, responding to market volatility, or adapting to global crises like the pandemic, today’s leaders rarely have the luxury of complete information when they need to act.
According to a survey conducted by?McKinsey & Company, more than 80% of business leaders report making high-stakes decisions without all the data they would like to have. The challenges are compounded by today’s economic uncertainty, driven by inflation, supply chain disruptions, and shifting consumer behaviors. In these conditions, decision-making becomes not just a skill, but a?necessity.
How can leaders make smart decisions when so much is unknown? The answer lies in embracing uncertainty, honing decision-making frameworks, and leading with confidence despite incomplete data.
1. Embrace the Uncertainty: It’s the New Normal
Gone are the days when leaders had the luxury of waiting for full clarity before acting. In an era of rapid change, agility is more important than certainty. Research by?Harvard Business Review?shows that the most successful leaders in uncertain environments don’t wait for perfect information—they act decisively based on available data and adjust course as new information emerges.
In today’s economic context, waiting for certainty could mean missing opportunities or falling behind competitors who move quickly despite imperfect knowledge.
Accept That Perfect Information is a Myth
The first step is embracing the fact that there will?never?be perfect information, especially during periods of economic volatility. Successful leaders understand that waiting for all the data can paralyze progress. Instead of striving for certainty, focus on gathering?enough?information to make informed decisions, even if some variables remain unknown.
The?Global Leadership Forecast?by the?DDI Leadership Institute?found that 60% of leaders identified agility as a key factor in navigating uncertainty. Agile decision-making requires leaders to act with conviction even when they don’t have all the answers.
2. Use Decision-Making Frameworks: Reduce Complexity, Increase Clarity
When faced with limited information, the complexity of decisions can feel overwhelming. To avoid paralysis by analysis, effective leaders turn to decision-making frameworks that allow them to simplify choices, weigh risks, and act strategically.
One useful approach is the?OODA Loop, a decision-making cycle developed by military strategist John Boyd, which stands for?Observe, Orient, Decide, Act. This model helps leaders break down decisions into manageable steps:
In uncertain times, a framework like the OODA Loop provides leaders with a structured way to navigate ambiguity. It encourages rapid decision-making followed by constant adaptation, which is crucial in today’s rapidly changing environment. This method was widely used in business during the 2008 financial crisis, and it remains highly relevant in today’s unpredictable economic landscape.
3. Prioritize What You Can Control
Amid economic uncertainty, it’s tempting to fixate on variables outside your control—shifting markets, inflation rates, or geopolitical issues. While it’s important to stay informed, successful leaders focus on what they?can?control and prioritize decisions accordingly.
An effective strategy for leading in uncertainty is breaking down large, overwhelming challenges into smaller, more manageable decisions.?Wharton School?researchers found that leaders who approach decisions incrementally, focusing on “quick wins” or smaller actions that can be taken immediately, reduce the risk of feeling overwhelmed.
Identify Core Priorities
When external conditions are volatile, the best leaders focus on core priorities:
By focusing on these core priorities, you can make tangible progress despite wider uncertainty. A report by?Gartnerfound that businesses that prioritize operational flexibility and team resilience perform better in downturns, making quick, decisive adjustments that preserve stability.
4. Use Scenario Planning: Prepare for Multiple Outcomes
When faced with uncertainty, it’s crucial to prepare for multiple potential outcomes.?Scenario planning?is a tool that allows leaders to anticipate a variety of future possibilities and develop strategic responses for each.
For example, given the current economic climate, leaders might map out scenarios based on different levels of inflation, supply chain disruptions, or customer demand fluctuations. Each scenario should have a corresponding action plan that addresses risks and opportunities.
According to?McKinsey & Company, companies that engage in proactive scenario planning tend to fare better during economic crises because they’ve already considered the possible outcomes and aren’t caught off-guard when conditions shift.
5. Communicate Transparently with Your Team
Finally, in times of uncertainty, leadership isn’t just about making decisions—it’s about?communicating?those decisions clearly and confidently to your team. A?Gallup?study found that 74% of employees feel more engaged and confident in their work when leaders communicate openly during times of uncertainty.
When information is limited, transparency becomes a key tool for building trust. Let your team know that while you don’t have all the answers, you are committed to making the best decisions with the information available. By bringing your team into the decision-making process and providing regular updates, you can foster a sense of unity and resilience.
Empower Your Team to Act
In uncertain times, top-down decision-making can slow progress. Empowering your team to make decentralized decisions based on their expertise helps ensure agility and responsiveness.?MIT Sloan?researchers found that companies that encourage decentralized decision-making tend to outperform their peers in uncertain environments, as employees on the ground can act faster than those waiting for executive approval.
Conclusion: Leadership in Uncertain Times Requires Action Over Perfection
Leading in uncertain times requires more than just intelligence—it requires?decisiveness. While it’s natural to feel paralyzed by incomplete information, successful leaders embrace the ambiguity and move forward with conviction. By using decision-making frameworks, prioritizing core controllable areas, and communicating transparently with your team, you can lead effectively even when the path isn’t clear.
Remember: perfection is the enemy of progress. In times of economic uncertainty, agility, flexibility, and a commitment to action will always serve you better than waiting for the perfect solution. Uncertain times demand confident leadership—and with the right tools, you can make bold decisions that steer your team toward success, no matter how unpredictable the environment.
Pauline Heurtevent, Tech Strategy Leader
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