Leading Through the Unknown Unknowns

Leaders most often are dealing with the known—a business direction, a personnel decision, a crisis response. Then, there are the known unknowns—risks we are aware of, like whether or not a client can secure their financing, or whether a key manager has been thinking of leaving for a better job. In both of these cases we may face something unexpected, but the possibility of it is known and we’ve dealt with it before.

There’s another category for leaders, and that is the unknown unknowns. The phrase was coined by former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the lead-up to the Iraq War. He talked about unknown unknowns, describing those challenges as “the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is that category that tends to be the difficult ones.”[1]

No leader on September 10, 2001, could foresee a series terrorist attacks that would lead to permanent changes in homeland security, and a decade-long war against extremists. Certainly no leader went to bed on March 14, 2020, knowing they would wake up to the beginning of a pandemic that would shutter public businesses and have people wearing face masks, in some cases for as long as three years. These represent unknown unknowns—circumstances we cannot foresee or prepare for. The Bible gives us three important instructions for leading through unknown unknowns.

Don’t be afraid of the unknown unknowns. Fear is a common reaction to the unknown, and something the Bible addresses head-on. 1 Peter 3:13-14 says, “Now who is there to harm you if you are zealous for what is good? But even if you should suffer for righteousness' sake, you will be blessed. Have no fear of them, nor be troubled…” The Apostle Paul confirms that “God gave us a spirit not of fear but of power and love and self-control” (2 Timothy 1:7). Fear is an emotion that creates a sense of helplessness, anxiety, fatigue. With fear, our survival instinct kicks in, and we may rationalize bad decisions for the goal of self-preservation.?

God tells us not to approach challenges with fear, because we will not lead in a Christ-honoring way if we make decisions based on what we are afraid of. We overcome fears by facing them, sharing the anxiety that weighs on us with others, and taking time to think clearly about our response. Avoidance, isolation, or a rush to make decisions regarding the unknown only heighten our sense of fear.

Trust God through the unknown unknowns. Isaiah 41:10 tells us to “Fear not, for I am with you; be not dismayed, for I am your God; I will strengthen you, I will help you, I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.” When it comes to the unknown, realize that although God does not promise we will avoid difficult challenges, He promises to be with us. Psalm 118:6 reminds us, “The Lord is on my side; I will not fear. What can man do to me?” With God on our side, working for our good, what is the worst that could happen?

There’s perhaps no more comforting thought regarding the unknown unknown than to know God is with us in those moments. Further, God also promises that His intent through all of the unknowns is for our good, saying, “For I know the plans I have for you, declares the Lord, plans for welfare and not for evil, to give you a future and a hope” (Jeremiah 29:11). Even when the unknown appears perilous, we can trust the God’s intent is always for our best.

Remember there is nothing unknown to God. When facing the unknown unknown, Who better to engage through it than Someone Who knows everything? 1 John 3:20 says, “or whenever our heart condemns us, God is greater than our heart, and he knows everything.” The omniscient characteristic of God is something that is difficult for us to grasp. Omniscience means that God has complete awareness, understanding and insight about everything. Because this magnitude of knowledge is impossible for us, we see this as a holy attribute that sets God Himself apart from us.

We sometimes refer to God as the “Author of Creation.” This is just as the author of a book, who has complete awareness of the premise, plot, characters and narrative. We as the reader simply follow along and some of that is revealed to us, but certainly not everything that was in the mind of the author. Because nothing is unknown to God, He is never surprised, shocked or caught unprepared. This gives us confidence for the unknown unknowns. Even if we do not and cannot know something, we are guided by the One who does know everything we cannot know.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There_are_unknown_unknowns