Leading the Herd

As a resident of the state of Colorado and an avid college football fan, it was an interesting month of September.?? The arrival of Coach Prime (Deion Sanders) to lead the football program at the University of Colorado created noise when he was hired in December of last year.??? However, that has paled in comparison to the shear pandemonium that has surrounded the program in the past month.? The team defied the expectations of many within the establishment in college football and experienced early success by winning their first three games.?? With this early success came boatloads of attention.?? The experience has transcended college football with the entire sports world converging on Boulder and TV ratings are through the roof setting all time records.?? The impact has extended well beyond the sports world as well with celebrities from all walks of life flocking to the scene and media coverage extending to traditional mainstream outlets such as CBS’ 60 Minutes.?? The University of Colorado, Coach Prime and the entire enterprise are capitalizing on this movement by selling out the entire season of football games, launching adjacent product lines like sunglasses and trademark applications being made for some of the team mottos and catch phrases.??

This comes on the heels of a summer where Taylor Swift and her “Eras Tour” have taken over the pop culture landscape in the U.S.?? The “Swifties” have traveled across the country and taken over the cities where her concerts not only sold out but secondary markets for tickets routinely had re-sales that exceeded $1,000 and in many instances $10,000 for a concert ticket.?? The amazing part of this to me is that this has not been a one-time event but the phenomenon has extended across dozens of locations for the full tour with some fans attending multiple concerts and traveling thousands of miles increasing their investment in time and money well beyond the levels of hyper-inflated tickets.??? By some estimates, the economic impact of this single concert tour has made a material impact on the U.S. economy with total economic impact reaching $5B and receiving commentary in regional Federal Reserve bank reports.?? This effect too is extending into the sports world with her apparent personal relationship with football player Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs leading to extensive media coverage and a huge spike in merchandise sales for the NFL.

These are just two recent and prominent instances where our society flocks to the latest and greatest trend, movement or fad.?? In a world when there are such a diversity of options for media, entertainment and communication channels, it feels a little different than historical examples such as the Beatles invasion of the 1960’s or Live Aid in the 1980’s when a much more limited set of media channels reached a greater portion of the population.?? ?To me, there are two significant takeaways from these more recent experiences: 1) the human desire to be “part of a herd” is unbelievably strong and 2) the coordinated mobilization of that herd via modern communications channels and both traditional and social media can greatly accelerate and amplify those movements.??

I can’t help but think about the implications to all of this.?? There are certainly opportunities that are obvious, however, one memory that has entered my mind on many occasions is a scene from a favorite movie from the time when my kids were much younger…Ice Age.?? In the movie an unlikely collection of animals (a mammoth, a sloth and a sabretooth tiger) form their own “herd” and find an abandoned human baby as they migrate across a landscape looking to escape the approaching glaciers at the beginning of an Ice Age.?? In one scene, this newly formed herd is searching for food for the baby and comes across a flock of Dodo birds with watermelons.?? The Dodos rally to try and defend their watermelon and in the process, a large group of these flightless birds ends up running off a cliff while another Dodo watching the whole scene unfold delivers a line that only parents are supposed to understand in an animated kids movie:? “There goes our last female”.?? While the reference to the extinction of the Dodo bird is clearly a dark example, I can’t help but think of this picture when I see how fast and unified members of our society, our herd, can follow after a current trend or fad.

There are a number of opportunities and cautionary tales that I believe this herd mentality offers for the world of business and agriculture.?

1.?????? The opportunity to harness the power of social dynamics and the natural human tendencies to run with the herd is immense, both despite and empowered by a much more fragmented landscape of modern media channels of communication.?? While many of the more significant movements may have an organic element to them, there are clearly strategies and tactics that can be employed to amplify and accelerate momentum.? ?The simple ability to reach a global audience efficiently has fundamentally shifted how many entrepreneurs may think about market size. Talk about job security for marketers!

2.?????? In agriculture, where we have traditionally struggled with effectively telling the story of modern agriculture and face increasing and diverse sources of criticism from various interest groups, it is clearly a double-edged sword.?? On one hand there are more tools than ever to tell the story and it is possible to create movements that could help highlight all the good that agriculture has and continues to do for society.?? On the other hand, those with an agenda, arguably stronger capabilities to harness those same tools and a compelling story or message using a selective fact base, can greatly amplify or accelerate movements promoting changes that may have more societal costs than benefits.??

3.?????? Another unique implication for agriculture lies in the speed with which these herd movements can build.?? Whether that movement may be advocating for doing something new or stopping something old, understanding the implications of those changes takes time.?? While digital tools, analytics and eventually things like generative AI may help accelerate some things, the reality is that agriculture relies upon biological systems.?? Implications to these biological systems rely on things like natural growth rates of plants or animals, seasonality, and localized environmental conditions such as weather that are still not fully predictable and, in many cases, we are a long way from fully understanding how they work.?? In addition, there are extraordinarily complex systems in play with interdependencies that complicate our ability to generate understanding quickly or without rigorous research and testing.?? All of this takes time or involves increased risk if major changes are undertaken at the pace that society may demand.

As I reflect on all of this, it leaves me both excited and anxious.?? Herds almost by definition are composed primarily of followers.? This, combined with the speed of change accelerating, the role of leadership continues to take on increasing importance in my opinion.??? ?It takes a steady hand at the wheel to bring to bear lessons from history and the ability to contextualize and rationalize competing dynamics in the market, all while not compromising on your ability to capitalize on opportunities that present themselves.?? If this doesn’t happen, the risks of the herd running off the cliff will only increase, and the consequences will be borne by our global food supply and everyone who depends on it.?? This may seem like a heavy burden, but it certainly highlights the importance of the role we all play in shaping the future of this industry!