Leading in the Dark: Sense Trumps Strategy in the Race against the Unknown

In darkness lies the unknown. Leaders are surrounded by a myriad of unknowns in today’s world. The ability to predict all possible outcomes used to be a key trait of any good leader. As a leader, I honestly can’t predict what the world will look like after commercial 5G technology rolls out in the coming years, opening up a surge of new business opportunities (and threats).

We do not face one unknown today; the unknowns multiply and mutate in ways that make what we used to think was impossible possible. I can’t see what’s in front, what’s at the back, what’s on the left or the right. I feel there’s nothing to hold on to, and no reference point, when you tread in complete darkness. “It cannot be seen, cannot be felt, cannot be heard, cannot be smelt”, to quote the great JRR Tolkien. 

The future is unknown and yet CEOs have to race against these unknowns.

The traditional 3- to 5-year strategic plan, a basic in any CEO’s toolkit, feels very lame nowadays. When making a strategic plan, CEOs look at the past to make sense of the future. That’s because the past is made up of cycles and patterns, which give the future a sense of predictability. Disruptions and transformations are happening everywhere, and the future will not look like anything we know in the past.

Before, car manufacturers had to worry about how other car manufacturers were innovating. Now, cars have to contend with tech companies that produce smart cars. Banks need to compete with tech companies that are revolutionizing how value is being exchanged. It’s not hard to see that eventually, all companies will be tech companies. I don’t know which companies today will still exist tomorrow. CEOs cannot benchmark their competitors to measure a company’s performance as almost any company, new or old, small or big, can be your competitor tomorrow. CEOs cannot look to the right or the left for reassurance anymore.

This causes a lot of stress. If the CEO is under stress, then everyone else will be under stress.

I built the first and biggest executive search business in China and Asia. I must admit I struggle to find the right formula to success going forward, and feel I am in the dark. I know we used to pick one area of competitiveness from among cost, speed and quality, and today we have to be good in all three at the same time just to stay alive. What I do not know is how much of each is needed to win; it is like I have the ingredients, but I am still trying to find the right mix to find the winning recipe.

Like other professional service firms, our company is a sum of individuals, so any transformation must start with the individual, i.e. every consultant must be prepared for the unknown and willing to do whatever it takes to stay relevant today. This is hard because unlike a company, an individual has emotions and a sense of attachment that cannot be replaced by technology, and yet these same things make it hard to change with the times.

Before we continue, you might care to ask – but why is it dark? When there’s so much info out there to shed light on the unknowns? When algorithms and machine learning become increasingly smarter precisely to help you predict and make sense of all the data and information?

I do think that information doesn’t always shed light on the future. Information overload can even add to the stress. I’ve come to realize that…

The more we know, the more we don’t know. 

So how do you lead in the dark?

“There is the darkness that frightens, the darkness that soothes, the darkness that is restful,” to paraphrase the bestselling author Sarah J. Maas.

Perhaps there’s something we can learn from the blind.

Research shows that people who are blind really do have enhanced abilities in their other senses. Scans reveal that blind people have heightened senses of hearing, smell and touch. It’s only with these heightened senses that blind people can feel their way through darkness. 

You may have watched the video on how Cristiano Ronaldo scored in complete darkness (aka “the greatest goals”).

Leading in the dark requires sensing in the dark. Our senses allow us to be more intuitive, stay calm and focused on the present, and to “feel” the unknown. So, in the race to the unknown, like the one we’re all in right now, people who can sense better have the edge.

So instead of ruminating or worrying too much about the future, which remains largely unknown, perhaps the best thing we can do is to just focus on the present. Live in the present. Because the present is the only thing that is truly known and knowable. This is why mindfulness is important. Because it helps us focus on the present. It helps sharpen our senses because, when trying to move and lead in the dark, our senses become even more important.

Machines at some point can probably predict the future better than us, but we will still be better at sensing our immediate surroundings. Did you know that doctors are more likely to be replaced by AI than nurses, even if doctors are supposedly the more “intellectual” job (i.e. better predictive abilities)? That’s because machines will at some point be smarter than the smartest doctor, but there will always be a market for human care and common sense. This is just one example of how, in an AI-driven future world, sense trumps strategy, EQ beats IQ, empathy edges hard logic. AI can do each of the latter better than us, so let's be better with the former.

This is just one example of how, in an AI-driven future world, sense trumps strategy, EQ beats IQ, empathy edges hard logic.

So don’t worry too much about all the “unknowns”. At some point, machines will take care of that for us; they’re supposed to do this better than us, anyway. But until then (when machines can do everything for us) we have to go through the labor pains of a transition period – The Age of Stress.

The prophet Ali Ibn Abi Talib once said: “Do not let your difficulties fill you with anxiety; after all it is only in the darkest nights that stars shine more brightly.”

So mindfulness has become even more important. Well-being is something we can control. So I have been learning to close my eyes and feel my senses and focus on learning what every day brings and making sure everyone in the company is ready for the lift off…

Lots of Love,

Louisa

https://www.dhirubhai.net/in/louisa-wong-74805740/detail/recent-activity/posts/