Leading between Certainty and Uncertainty - Insights at Bezos Earth Fund

Last week, I had the privilege of speaking at the Bezos Earth Fund sharing how the principles from my new book The Courage Gap to leading in this time of disruption, complexity, and change. In a conversation with Jessica Sibley , CEO of TIME Magazine, we explored how we can step up—individually and collectively—to tackle our greatest challenges, including building a more sustainable future. As Nicole Iseppi , Director of Global Energy Innovation at Bezos Earth Fund shared in her opening remarks, courage lays at the heart of their commitment to supporting innovative strategies for impactful solutions. It is, after all, impossible to get it right without the courage to risk getting it wrong in the process.

Jess opened with a quote from The Courage Gap:

“The difference between what we do and what we are capable of doing would suffice to solve the problems of the world.” — Mahatma Gandhi

The gap between knowledge and action is where potential is lost and change stalls. And at the heart of that gap is fear—of making a wrong better, losing status or disrupting the security of the status quo. Closing it requires courage.

We are living in a time of immense uncertainty—social, political, economic, environmental. The sheer complexity of today’s challenges can feel paralyzing. In such times, the temptation is to seek absolute certainty—about what’s right, what’s wrong, and how things must be done. But leadership demands a different posture.

The strongest leaders don’t operate with blind conviction, nor do they retreat into inaction. Instead, they navigate between certainty and uncertainty: holding firm to their true north—their core values and guiding vision—while staying flexible in their approach, willing to challenge assumptions, adapt to new realities, and change course when needed.

How do we lead within this tension? Here are three principles I discussed with Jess to help you lead yourself and others with greater courage.

1. Anchor in Purpose, Adapt in Action

The world bombards us daily with what’s broken, failing, and heading toward crisis. It’s easy to become overwhelmed, siphoning energy into outrage or blame rather than progress. Yet railing against problems doesn’t solve them, it amplifies them and blinds us to solutions.

Instead of waiting for certainty about how to move forward, anchor yourself in certainty about why you’re moving forward. Your values and purpose must serve as your North Star, providing direction even when the path ahead is unclear. When leaders are deeply clear on their guiding vision, they can remain flexible in their strategies, adjusting course without losing sight of what truly matters. They resist rigid thinking and stay attuned to better pathways as they emerge.

As I shared in the clip above from our conversation, leading from a place of deep clarity about what truly matters makes us less reactive to the noise and more intentional in directing our energy toward meaningful progress.

2. Challenge Your Certainty

While we like to believe we see the world objectively, we all filter reality through cognitive biases that shape our beliefs and reinforce our rightness. Our brains are wired to seek out information that affirms what we already think while dismissing anything that contradicts it. But true leadership demands more than just conviction—it requires the courage to question our assumptions and actively seek perspectives that challenge us.

In today’s hyper-polarized world, certainty is often mistaken for strength. Yet, the strongest leaders are not those who cling stubbornly to their existing views but those willing to hold them lightly—open to better evidence, new ideas, and fresh insights. As Ray Dalio points out, too many people make bad decisions simply because they are so certain they’re right that they fail to see better alternatives. The most effective leaders recognize that great decisions don’t come from having all the answers but from asking good questions.

Staying anchored to a clear North Star while continuously challenging the certainty of how best to pursue it requires a willingness to step into uncertainty—to sit in the discomfort of not knowing —because within that space lie opportunities and insights far greater than anything any one of us could conceive alone. As Mark Twain aptly put it:

“It’s not what we don’t know that gets us into trouble. It’s what we’re sure about that just ain’t so.”

Staying open to being wrong isn’t a weakness—it’s an advantage.

3. Don’t Wait for Clarity to Act

Because our brains are wired for certainty, the tendency is to delay action until we feel it. Yet in times of rapid change, waiting for clarity before moving forward is often the greater risk.

Clarity doesn’t come from standing still—it comes from taking considered action, making smart bets, accelerating learning curves, and continuously reassessing. Those who learn faster—who experiment, adapt, and iterate—will always be best positioned to seize opportunities hidden beyond the horizon.

History has always been shaped by those willing to act in uncertainty. As I wrote in The Courage Gap, we need to prioritize speed of learning over seamless execution. The real risk isn’t taking the wrong action; it’s allowing the fear of imperfect action to keep you from taking any action at all. In a world that's racing ahead, speed of learning is a competitive strategy.

We stand at a pivotal moment—not just in finding solutions for a more sustainable planet but in how we navigate uncertainty in our daily lives. The future will not be shaped by those waiting for perfect clarity or clinging to old answers. It will be shaped by those willing to question their best answers, to act boldly, and create the space for others to do the same.

The tension between certainty and uncertainty is not a problem to be solved, but a journey devoid of clear road markers through shifting terrain—where certainty serves as our compass and uncertainty shapes the landscape we must learn to navigate. When we hold firm to our values but remain open to new ideas, we lead with both conviction and curiosity.

This is the kind of leadership our world needs now.

So ask yourself: Where do you need to hold your ground? And where do you need to let go?

The future belongs to the brave. Let’s lead it.

To inspire you in that journey, please grab a copy of The Courage Gap, available in audio book and wherever good books are sold.

Margie Warrell is a leadership advisor and sought-after keynote speaker. More at www.margiewarrell.com