Leadership’s Ripple Effects: The Impact of Unintended Consequences

“The truth of the matter is that you always know the right thing to do. The hard thing is doing it.”

Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf

Introduction

In one of our first leadership courses, the chair of my doctoral dissertation committee, Dr. Thornton, reiterated that leadership is about making decisions—some big, some small, but all impactful. Leaders strive to create positive change in business, politics, or community organizations. However, even the most well-intentioned decisions can yield unintended consequences—results that were neither anticipated nor desired. These consequences may be minor, manageable, or significant enough to derail progress and damage reputations. These decisions that lead to those consequences and the ability of a leader to calculate them exhibit the quality or the lack thereof of a leader.

Sociologist Robert K. Merton first formalized the idea of unintended consequences in his 1936 essay The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action. He identified several reasons why unintended consequences occur, including ignorance, errors in analysis, and short-term thinking. Failure to anticipate tertiary or secondary effects in leadership can result in inefficiencies, employee dissatisfaction, or ethical dilemmas.

In this article, I take a slightly different approach by examining real-life case studies, analyzing the effects through experience backed by scientific research, and providing practical strategies to help leaders and coaches effectively navigate these complex challenges.

Understanding Unintended Consequences in Leadership

According to sociologist Robert K. Merton (1936), unintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated or unforeseen consequences, more colloquially called knock-on effects) are?outcomes of a purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. It involves a deliberate action by the decision-maker, potentially leading to positive or negative results that were not part of the original goal or intention.?

Leadership decisions are usually made under pressure and, in many cases, while burdened with ethical dilemmas. Rarely does a decision with dramatic unintended consequences happen under optimal conditions. ?Therefore, I always tell leaders before making a decision that they should answer one question: “Under optimal conditions, would I be making the same decision?” If the answer is yes, then chances are that the leader has already found “peace” with their decision. This process ties in with Merton's idea of the concept of “self-fulfilling prophecy" because the intent will be either right or wrong, yet, in both cases, the leader is right simply because they believe in the outcome.

In general, unintended consequences can be classified into three categories:

1. Positive Consequences – Unexpected benefits resulting from a decision.
2. Negative Consequences – Harmful or counterproductive effects.
3. Perverse Consequences – The exact opposite of what was intended.

Understanding these classifications allows leaders to anticipate and mitigate risks while capitalizing on unforeseen opportunities. By looking at these classifications, leaders should have at least two takeaways: (a) expect the unexpected, (b) do your due diligence by calculating the unintended consequences of a decision by using all available tools, specifically if the decision affects many, and (c) be open-minded and enhance your “growth mindset” abilities to seize opportunities that are created even through seemingly unexpected outcomes. ?

Case Study 1: The Wells Fargo Scandal (Perverse Consequence)

In an effort to increase sales, Wells Fargo leadership implemented aggressive sales targets, encouraging employees to cross-sell financial products (selling multiple accounts to the same customer). While seemingly beneficial for business growth, this initiative had unintended consequences (Brian Tayan, 2019).

Unintended Consequences:

• Facing immense pressure, employees created millions of fake accounts to meet unrealistic targets.
• Customers were charged for services they never requested.
• The scandal led to billions of dollars in fines and severe reputational damage.

This case demonstrates how incentive structures can backfire when prioritizing short-term gains over ethical considerations and employee well-being. Incentives are like the expectation of a present on a holiday. The expectation is greater than the actual gift itself (Ruffle, 1999). It is a complex sociopsychological issue that, in numerous cases, presents unique challenges and must be thoroughly investigated based on executive and open-loop systems of communication focusing on bottom-up communication

Case Study 2: Google's Remote Work Policy (Negative Consequence)

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Google implemented a remote work policy, allowing employees to work from home indefinitely. This was perceived as a progressive move that increased flexibility and employee satisfaction (Sigh, Bala, Lal Dey, and Filieri, 2022).

Unintended Consequences:

• Decline in innovation: Research suggests that in-person interactions contribute to creativity and problem-solving (Waber et al., 2014).
• Employee isolation: Many employees reported feeling disconnected from company culture (Sigh, Bala, Lal Dey, and Filieri, 2022).
• Pay adjustments: Google later announced salary adjustments based on location, which caused dissatisfaction among relocated employees.

While remote work provided short-term benefits, it also highlighted challenges of collaboration, innovation, and compensation fairness. Lin, Frey, and Wu's study on the issue of remote collaboration (2023) found that despite striking improvements in digital technology in recent years, remote teams are less likely to integrate their members' knowledge to produce new, disruptive ideas. Leaders and coaches alike should strive for balance and discern when what is needed.

Case Study 3: 3M’s Post-it Notes (Positive Consequence)

Most companies experience the perverse and negative effects of a leadership decision, as in the case of 3M and the creation of Post-it Notes. The company's “misfortune” is a notable example of unintended positive consequences (Nayak & Ketteringham, 1986).

Background: In 1968, Dr. Spencer Silver, a chemist at 3M, attempted to develop a super-strong adhesive for aerospace applications. Instead, he accidentally created a low-tack, reusable, pressure-sensitive adhesive that could stick to surfaces without leaving residue. Initially, this adhesive was deemed a failure for its intended purpose, as it lacked the desired strength.

Unintended Positive Consequences:

• Innovation of Post-it Notes: Silver was intrigued by the adhesive's unique properties despite the initial setback. It was not until 1974 that Art Fry, a colleague at 3M, conceptualized using the adhesive to anchor bookmarks in his hymnal without damaging the pages. This idea evolved into the development of Post-it Notes, which 3M officially launched in 1980.
• Market Success: Post-it Notes became an unexpected commercial success, revolutionizing how people organize and communicate personally and professionally.
• Cultural Impact: The product has become a ubiquitous office supply, inspiring creativity and efficiency, and has even influenced art projects and organizational systems worldwide.

The case of 3M exemplifies how an initial failure can lead to unforeseen innovation and success. It highlights the importance of flexibility and open-mindedness in research and development processes and the importance of out-of-the-box thinking processes among company personnel.

Strategies to Navigate Unintended Consequences in Leadership

In modern leadership's complex and ever-changing landscape, every decision can ripple through systems in often unforeseen ways. Navigating these unintended consequences requires foresight and a high degree of understanding of interconnected variables. While numerous technology-driven approaches—such as Second-Order Thinking and Systems Mapping, Decision Impact Simulation (DIS), Behavioral Economics and Employee Psychology Models, Network Effect Analysis (NEA), and Real-Time Data Feedback Loops—offer innovative methods to predict and reduce adverse outcomes, this discussion will focus on three foundational strategies and an out-of-the-box approach that are both practical and adaptable across diverse organizational contexts.

By emphasizing Scenario Planning and Risk Assessment, Encouraging a Feedback Culture, and Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Thinking, leaders and coaches can proactively identify potential pitfalls, promote an environment of open communication, and align their decisions with long-term organizational success. These strategies help moderate risks and strengthen trust, adaptability, and resilience within the organization—qualities essential for sustainable leadership in an era of constant change.

1. Scenario Planning and Risk Assessment

Before implementing a decision, leaders should consider second-order effects. The leaders should identify all stakeholders affected by the decision, conduct a "what-if" analysis to anticipate possible adverse outcomes, and use historical case studies to learn from past failures. An example of a lack of a similar process is when Starbucks decided to phase out plastic straws in favor of recyclable lids. They faced backlash from disability advocacy groups who found the new lids more challenging to use. Had they conducted a broader stakeholder impact analysis, they could have anticipated and mitigated this issue.

2. Encouraging a Feedback Culture

Communication never seizes to be the antidote of all great corporate “pains.” Leaders who actively listen to their teams can detect unintended consequences early. Organizations should utilize open communication channels, encourage whistleblowing protections to identify emerging ethical concerns and use employee sentiment surveys to monitor workplace dynamics. When Amazon implemented algorithm-driven employee monitoring, they realized it increased warehouse workers' stress and resignations. If they had gathered employee feedback earlier, they could have identified and addressed these issues proactively. This example shows the importance of receiving top-to-bottom and bottom-up feedback to minimize unintended consequences. A word to the wise: As I always say, “open door policy means nothing without an open-minded culture.”

3. Balancing Short-Term and Long-Term Thinking

Many unintended consequences arise because leaders focus too much on short-term gains and, in many instances, through the lens of quick capital gain, which impedes ethics. Often, leaders fail to align decisions with the company’s core values, consider the long-term social and economic impact, and adopt sustainable business practices. Boeing’s push for rapid aircraft production led to safety oversights in the 737 MAX program. The result? Two fatal crashes, regulatory scrutiny, and a loss of public trust. The tragedy does not only lie in the loss of life, which is horrific, but also in the regretful sentiment that includes the question of “what if" and the reflective expression of "if only.” A “win-win” would have been possible if only a more long-term, safety-focused approach had been implemented. It could have prevented this disaster, saved lives, and improved the customers' and company's safety and security.

Out-of-the-Box Approaches to Address Unintended Consequences

It is promising that innovative approaches are reshaping how decision-making processes are understood and applied in the evolving field of leadership. Among these, the concept of aligning multiple intelligences—or “brains”—stands out as a transformative framework. This idea is thoroughly explored by Grant Soosalu and Marvin Oka in their 2012 publication, mBraining: Using Your Multiple Brains to Do Cool Stuff. Building on the foundational work of John Townsend (Leading from the Gut, 2011) and pioneering authors Daniel Goleman, Richard Boyatzis, and Annie McKee (Primal Leadership: Realizing the Power of Emotional Intelligence, 2002), Soosalu and Oka offer a compelling synthesis of neuroscience, emotional intelligence, and practical leadership techniques.

At the core of mBraining lies the recognition that humans possess three distinct yet interconnected neural networks, often referred to as “brains”:

1. Head Brain: The center of cognitive processes responsible for reasoning, creativity, and logical thought.
2. Heart Brain: The seat of emotions, values, and relational connections, essential for empathy, compassion, and ethical decision-making.
3. Gut Brain: The domain of intuition, self-preservation, and courage, guiding instinctual responses and resilience.

Soosalu and Oka introduce Multiple Brain Integration Techniques (mBIT) to harness the full potential of these three intelligences. Rooted in insights from neuroscience, Neuro-Linguistic Programming (NLP), cognitive linguistics, and behavioral modeling, mBIT provides practical methods for aligning cognitive, emotional, and intuitive processes. This harmonization is designed to:

• Enhance intuitive abilities: Understanding the gut-brain can help individuals make faster and more confident decisions in complex situations.
• Improve decision-making processes: Integrating input from all three brains ensures more balanced and well-rounded choices.
• Achieve emotional balance and personal alignment: Engaging the heart's brain fosters empathy and compassion, leading to more ethically sound leadership.

The practical applications of this framework are both accessible and transformative. Individuals can learn to communicate effectively with each brain through targeted exercises and techniques, cultivating greater internal coherence. I can not emphasize enough that nothing is possible without open-loop communication systems and a transparent effort to exchange information top-to-bottom and bottom-up. This alignment enhances personal and team well-being and resilience and empowers leaders to navigate uncertainty and change with wisdom and confidence.

By now, you may be questioning the very core of this approach, and I do not blame you. We are definitely not psychics or possess future prediction powers, and I can assure you that this is not the only tool, and not everybody is equipped to use it. However, by blending scientific research with insights from ancient wisdom traditions, mBraining offers a comprehensive and practical approach to decision-making. It equips leaders with the tools needed to align cognitive reasoning, emotional intelligence, and intuitive insight—essential competencies for addressing the unintended consequences that often arise in our complex and interconnected world. If nothing else, a leader’s and a coach’s journey should be a genuine endeavor to enhance what one does not possess and reach the optimal level of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: self-actualization and, through it, self-transcendence.

Concluding Thoughts

Unintended consequences are an inevitable part of leadership, but they do not have to be catastrophic. Leaders can moderate negative and perverse effects and drive sustainable success by integrating rigorous risk assessment, fostering a feedback culture, balancing long-term thinking, adapting leadership styles, and embedding ethical frameworks.

The quality of a leader is measured not just by their ability to make decisions but by their capacity to foresee and navigate unintended outcomes. In Brave New World (1932), Aldus Huxley noted that “experience is not what happens to us but what we do with what happens to us.” Those who actively learn from past mistakes, remain agile in decision-making and embrace resilience will take calculated risks and transform challenges into catalysts for growth, innovation, and lasting impact. Effective leadership lies in turning unforeseen difficulties into opportunities that shape potent, more adaptive organizations and communities. International Coaching Federation Leadership First COACH-IT Coach Link Up EuroLeague Head Coaches Board (EHCB) Leadership Circle Europe