Leadership: What I learned chasing the most dangerous storms on the planet.

The skies are charcoal black and hanging low as if?attempting?to plow these incredibly flat and fertile lands of Southeast Nebraska. The wind is rushing through the plush corn fields turning them into one expansive and violently undulating?yellow sea. A continuous rumble can be heard in the distance as a gigantic?hail shaft crashes onto the peaceful landscape a short distance away, bringing a cooler breeze that freshens this incredibly hot and humid day of June 11th?2018.

Danger is close?in the heart of?Tornado Alley an infamous region that, every year between March and June, experiences some of the most extreme weather on the planet. Thunderstorms capable of producing some of the most violent tornadoes with winds?in excess of?200mph find the?right ingredients in this part of the world.

The tornado sirens are now blaring, shaking the small village of Weeping Water, Nebraska, alerting the local community to?immediately?take?shelter.?I rapidly analyze?the?heaps?of data that I have access to on different software open?in?numerous?windows on my laptop. Do we have time to cut across the storm to intercept the tornado? My gut feeling tells me that it will be too close for comfort, but the data is suggesting otherwise. A decision needs to be taken?immediately.

We have been driving thousands of miles for this moment with the ultimate?objective?of intercepting a tornado. A rare sight. I instruct the team to head into the bear’s cage, the most treacherous part of the storm where the predator is obscured by thick rain and hail bars. The tornado is close.?

My passions for thunderstorms started at?a young age. Each time a storm rolled through our?neighbourhood,?my mother would systematically rush out to?admire these incredible natural pyrotechnic shows. Her passion for this phenomenon rubbed off onto me and I would?subsequently?also rush out to?observe?these intense shows. Since then, I was hooked. Then in 1996 the movie “Twister” was released, featuring scientists chasing tornadoes throughout the central US plains with their incredibly sophisticated (at the time) scientific equipment. This movie?further engrained my fascination for severe weather and Tornadoes in particular. These violently rotating columns of air captivated me by their eerie elegance. When I was around fourteen years old, I started ploughing?through piles of books covering severe weather forecasting to the point that when I reached?eighteen,?I was on the verge of heading off to university to study meteorology (I?subsequently?went to study engineering as I was also pursuing a motor racing career in parallel). The passion for severe weather remained strong but chasing tornadoes like in the movie Twister seemed?far-fetched.??

Then came a wave of technological progress with internet, smart?phones?and the democratization of weather data access. This was a game changer for all weather enthusiasts. Gone was the need to drag around heavy and expensive scientific equipment to get live data on the atmosphere. With only a laptop and a mobile?WIFI?hotspot, one was as well-equipped as the scientists in the movie Twister. In May 2013, we set off for the first time to Tornado Alley, flying to its capital, Oklahoma City, ready to put into practice years of theory. Like students coming out of business school and entering the real world for the first time, we rapidly realized that there is?a big difference?between theory and practice. Forecasting the future and dealing with uncertainty goes beyond what I had?anticipated?at the time, especially when your life is potentially on the line.??

Tornado chasing and business might have nothing in common at first sight. But I have come to learn several things which?are?applicable?to the corporate world. Leadership qualities that can be transposed from Tornado Alley’s dirt?roads,?to?the board rooms. The following is a?selection?of the top five key lessons that the infamous Tornado Alley taught me:?

1. Humility
2. Leading with passion
3. Balancing ambitious?objectives?with carefully assessed risk taking
4. Having the right people in the right roles doing the right things
5. Overestimating the importance of data and losing touch with our instinct

1- Humility: Overestimating?ourselves?is dangerous. In tornado alley it means that you are in the wrong place at the wrong time. In the best case it means you just missed a great storm. The worst case is that you get killed by a tornado. Predicting the future with perfection is impossible. Meteorology?attempts?to get us as close as possible. The level of unpredictability that goes?with a complex system such as the atmosphere is?unfathomable.

Despite the great strides in data gathering and data processing which now includes Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, science is still incapable of predicting tomorrow’s weather with precision, let alone pinpointing where a tornado is going to strike, if at all with a lead tie greater than 13 minutes (Average tornado lead time: source NOAA). However, we can minimize unpredictability by reducing uncertainty through diligent analysis and scenario definition. A systematic process which is very data driven and requires us to make educated?guesses as to how a scenario could unfold with various levels of probability. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does just that, but when we go?chasing?we do not rely on their forecasts alone. The SPC outlines risk areas with various levels of probabilities spanning large areas. These areas are way to vast to serve our purpose which is to?identify?the target area within a mile or so to see a tornado.??

We have often faced the situation where our forecasts (and that of the SPC’s) turned out to be wrong due to very subtle changes in atmospheric conditions that collapsed a weather setup that would have otherwise been a considerable severe weather event. Other times we had gone chasing with little hopes of seeing anything, to finally be mesmerised by an incredible show of extreme weather; here again, some very subtle changes in atmospheric ingredients changing the entire system’s dynamics (I hear you say the butterfly effect). These subtle changes are not picked up by the many weather instruments. On May 20th?2013, during the second day of our very first Odyssey into tornado alley, the SPC had issued a risk level one notch under the maximum?level.

A dangerous day for Oklahoma. We had little practical experience and headed off to the outskirts of Oklahoma City where we had spent the previous night. Several storms were firing up along what is commonly known as the “dryline”:?The?delineation?between moist and dry air and an ideal setup for storm chasers as the days start under the sun enabling us to admire the atomic-like explosion of these powerful storms. When the ingredients are?just right?these storms become what is known as supercell thunderstorms, a unique type of storm that rotates and capable of?spawning a tornado. I?observe?the satellite and radar data to?monitor?the mushrooming tops of three storms?initiating?along this dry line, unsure which one to target. Our positioning gives us two options to choose from. One on the outskirts of Oklahoma City and the other further south.

The sun that was until then shinning strong on these vast and flat plains, was now veiled by a feathery anvil,?representing?the top of the cumulonimbus cloud reaching the limit of the atmosphere at around 33’000 feet.

The radar was?indicating?rotation in the Oklahoma City storm, and we therefore decided to head closer to it, targeting the south-west part of the storm where the mesocyclone (rotating base of the storm) is?located. But before we could reach it, we got reports of a tornado having already touched down on the outskirts of Moore, a suburb of Oklahoma City. The skies grow darker as we approach the base of the?supercell?and the skies are an ominous pitch black?as we look north-east. We realize?pretty quickly?that we are already “behind the curve” and as we climb over a crest, our hearts sink as we are met with a scene of destruction at the location of the tornado’s touchdown. Debris strewn across the road that included twisted sheets of metal, power lines littering the road like dead snakes, trees snapped like twigs, personal belongings, and other unrecognizable debris. Roofs of houses were torn off as if one giant hand decided to rip them off.

Emergency vehicles were already on the scene, and more were arriving. But what we did not know at the time was that this was minor damage compared to what was ongoing further north-east in Moore. That day, a powerful EF5, the strongest and most feared type of tornado, was raging through the outskirts of Oklahoma City destroying parts of Moore that was already affected by a similar event back in 1999. A few days after the event, on our way back from our adventure through tornado alley, we drove through the most impacted parts of Moore and?witnessed?the extent of the destruction. It was a scene of utter?desolation, entire sections of the neighborhoods were gone, even solid brick structures such as the school were ripped open. It was like watching a war-torn city but where the culprit was mother nature. We are?very little?in the face of nature’s power.?This day forced respect and humility. Few ever imagined that this day would turn out this way and May 20th?2013?remains?to this day one of the worst days in US history for natural disasters. Forecasting the extent of this event was impossible. We knew something major could happen, but nobody was sure it would happen until it did. Since?then,?there have been higher risk days, but few ever materialized in a major weather event such as the one on May 20th?2013.?

In the corporate world, anything can happen at any time as well:?so?called black swan events are always a possibility.?

We cannot forecast with precision how a complex corporate ecosystem?will behave but we can hedge that unpredictability by reducing uncertainty through diligent environmental analysis whilst also accepting that our assessment will be imperfect.

It is simply impossible to predict with accuracy how events will unfold.

Therefore, being ready to rapidly adapt to new environmental conditions is vital for survival. As one would say, hope for the best and plan for the?worst. Planning for the worst when we are tornado chasing could?possibly save?our life, as it would save a firm in the corporate world. Life will always surprise?us:?be it for the better of the worse and it is important not to overestimate ourselves following past successful forecasts. We need to always remember that in such complex ecosystems an outcome sometimes hinges on?very little?to tip the course of events to one side or the other. We need to remember our place in this world and remain humble.

On May 20th?2013, the SPC’s forecast enabled local communities to be weather aware and saved many lives, even though they were not able to tell them precisely where and when the event would occur with more than 10 to 15 minutes lead warning with the tornado sirens. Their main scenario for the day was enough to preserve many?lives.?

2- Leading with passion: I started off on this tornado chasing venture alone. Today we are a team of three. My two chasing companions?didn’t?even know about this activity before I shared my passions with them, first with one friend who became my first partner in crime, and then another friend joining us later in the story when we shared our adventures with him. Getting people to follow you, especially in the face of danger is not easy if we just appeal to the mind. Factually explaining what tornado chasing is, the?objective?of intercepting a dangerous storm, the data and theory behind forecasting is unappealing to most. To onboard people, you need to appeal to the heart and the emotions. Obviously when I was discussing this topic with these future companions, I was not consciously thinking of how to convince them. I?actually was?not even looking to convince them in first place but?rather passionately?speaking about a topic that I held close to my heart. The beauty of the storms, the adventure into uncertainty, the many things that we can discover along the way beyond just the?objective?of intercepting a tornado, the beauty of the skies and the color contrasts storms can bring to otherwise bland landscapes. Each one of my companions found something in it for themselves. For one it was the discovery and disconnection from reality, whilst for the other it was the?golden opportunity?to take amazing pictures. For me it is the challenge of a?real?life-size?treasure hunt, where the treasure is the tornado and having to sift through clues strewn across the playground that the tornado alley region?represents.??

In the corporate world we all too often forget that emotional dimension. We appeal to the minds alone with data,?processes?and structure.?Don’t?get me wrong, data is an important and vital?component?to steer a business and I am a data driven person myself, but this needs to be complemented with the emotional dimension. Firms devise visions and missions because they feel they?have to?as best practice but?fail to?realize that this is often one vital starting block to integrate the emotional dimension of their cause. Simply put, too many times strategies are presented with little excitement for the team members to really feel engaged. We have fallen into a deep cartesian mindset and have put aside the more inspirational elements of leading a firm. The P of Passion could also be assimilated to the P of Purpose.

Leading with Purpose is a journey along which each team member can find what really?matters to them.

Our storm chasing team of three shares the same ultimate inspiring?objective?of intercepting a tornado, but each one’s pleasure stems from?different sources. The goal is an aspirational destination, but the real importance for the team members is the journey that they follow along the way. It falls on the leader(s) of the firm to inspire their troops or risk losing them along the way or?fail to?attract the best staff.??

3- Balancing ambitious?objectives?with carefully assessed risk taking: I have learned this the hard way when chasing the most violent storms on the planet. Overestimating one’s own ability (humility, or lack?thereof) is a dangerous value proposition. We can be confident with the process we follow in our analysis but overestimating its result is reckless. When we go?chasing?I define different scenarios for each decision we need to take, each having its own probabilities. Each decision faces a decreasing lead time to be taken as we approach the riskier parts of the thunderstorm. I am not working on an excel spreadsheet running numbers to assess the exact probabilities of each outcome; it is a systematic mental process that I?follow?and that corporate jargon would label: a risk-based approach. When we chase, I?don’t?consciously follow a predefined and learned process. I naturally follow this based on experience. Taking a decision?on the morning of a chase is easier than when we are facing a thick rain curtain near the base of a rotating (supercell) thunderstorm, in a tornado warning area. But the process is similar and requires sound knowledge of the environment. Caricaturing the process of balancing risk taking with reaching the?objective?in tornado chasing would translate into weighing in whether?death is worth getting?a great view?of a tornado.??

On the morning of May 20th?2019, the Storm Prediction Center had issued?a high risk?for severe weather. Exactly six years since the devastating Moore tornado we?witnessed?in 2013. This is a risk five out of five and a rare?occurrence?in?the weather community. The wording of the SPC was particularly concerning that day: “An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma.”

The SPC weather outlook drives much of?the voiceover I give the team during the breakfast briefing. It sets the scene. And on that day, it set the stress level a notch higher than usual and would influence how we would manoeuvre in moments of uncertainty during the chase. That day I was already mentally?allocating?a higher weight to the?worst case?scenario. That morning we set off out of Wichita Falls heading north-west to Childress, Texas which was defined as our?initial?target destination. Along the way?I processed the continuous stream of data that was enabling us to fine tune our next move. We could feel the humidity and tension in the air. The low-level winds were drawing substantial levels of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico?and that wind was already blowing hard across northwest Texas; a?substantial?ingredient to feed extreme weather. The SPC then issued?a?rare Tornado Watch labeled “Particularly Dangerous Situation”,?which?designates?a particularly volatile environment, with a?substantially high?probability of producing life-threatening severe weather.

I detect burgeoning clouds south-east of Childress and we head to these cells, reaching the main storm for which the SPC issues a tornado warning as we approach the base of the storm. We are the first chasers on the scene and have a perfect view of the rotating base that is rapidly approaching us in the small town of Roaring Springs.

The wind picks up considerably and two-inch hail sporadically falls from the sky, a sign of?very strong?convective updraft in the storm, meaning it is very potent. I quickly assess the distance from the rotation and reach the conclusion that we are at a safe distance from the visible rotation which could materialize into a tornado at any moment. I keep an eye out on the base directly above us for any other pockets of rotation or worse, the possibility of the entire base of the storm becoming a tornado, as happened on May 31st?2013, day during which several storm chasers were killed, taken by surprise during a freak event that saw a record breaking?2.6 mile wide?tornado rip through El Reno, Oklahoma.

We?observe?the wall cloud rotate?very close?to the ground without making contact. We head back into the vehicle and reach an intersection with a decision to make. Either we go north, straight into the rotation and core of the storm’s precipitation which would maximize the probability of seeing a tornado or head the long way east out of the precipitation to cut back north across the storm in the hope that we can?still keep?close to the storm. I needed to assess the risks?relative?to our?objective.

Given the parameters I had, and based on similar past mistakes, I decided to orient the team east away from the danger even though it meant not reaching our?objective?immediately. The risk of going north on a day like this was too high as it could mean driving straight into a powerful tornado. This was?definitely not?a day to gamble anything. In the end we managed to catchup with the storm even though we?didn’t?witness?any clearly visible tornado. But we were alive and survived a very volatile day which was a?success in itself. Above anything we were relieved that no major catastrophe happened and that there was no loss of life. We played it safe?but on that day,?we had to. We adapted our?objectives?and expectations as the day evolved and the risks assessed.??

As difficult as it might be, sometimes?you?have to?adjust?your?objectives?along the way based on the environment and the evolution of risks that go with it. Risk appetite is very personal. In the end we have a responsibility towards the team we lead and our firm. Our own personal risk appetite is irrelevant. We need to address risk responsibly and avoid reckless behavior that could mean death. In the corporate world it could mean death of your firm. You can set yourself?ambitious?objectives?whilst competing in a dangerous environment and yet survive?as long as?your goals are coherent with the exogeneous conditions you are operating in.

Adapting your risk taking responsibly for your stakeholders as conditions evolve is key.??

4- Having the right people in the right roles doing the right things:?In order to?navigate through Tornado Alley’s uncertainty safely and successfully, our team instinctively?defined clear roles and responsibilities. We?didn’t?consciously do?this,?it just naturally fell into place and the effectiveness of this structure has meant that our team has stuck together well even after emotionally charged experiences. When you spend over 16hours a day in an eight square meters space traveling?nearly 1’000km per day, each team member needs to get along well with one another. In life threatening situations, when pressure is high and nerves are rattled, it is?very easy?for relations to be strained. The way our team has been naturally structured taught me that a similar approach could be applied in a corporate environment. The approach is?very simple, but all too often overlooked and follows?the well-known?adage:

Hire for attitude and train for skill

In our case we have people with the right mindset, who share a common?objective?and are aligned on what it takes to successfully?reach the?objective: it will take hours of boring driving, hours waiting in the heat of the great plains, little time for ourselves and the possibility of being hurt physically from the weather or emotionally from tensions that could rise in the vehicle. Fortunately for us, having the right people and setting clear roles and responsibilities?has enabled to avoid any internal conflict. One person is the lead driver and a second is a backup. One is the lead?photographer,?another is the videographer. I am in the lead of navigation, forecasting and strategy decisions. These decisions are never argued during the most urgent?times. But the team has a say during the?early stages?of strategy definition and have positively impacted outcomes by questioning some positionings that were progressively turning out to be wrong. Inclusiveness in decision making is key when you can afford it. In tornado alley the currency is time and when it is in short supply in the most dangerous phases of the chase, the team is perfectly comfortable in accepting that the decisions rest solely on me. Having the right people in the right roles doing the right things and be accountable for their corresponding responsibility is key.??

The same applies in the corporate world. All too often we hire staff on skills alone and then have loosely defined roles and/or?objectives. Sometimes there are not?even any?objectives?defined.?Remember, without a goal you cannot score. Not having a goal is like driving around in circles hoping to find something when you are not even sure what you are looking for in the first place. Do not focus on skills alone and ensure that the person fits in your organization's culture, work ethic?and also?fits within a carefully structured team where each team member has?a clear?objective?that contributes to bringing the team closer to the grander ambition.??

5- Overestimating the importance of data and losing touch with our instinct: We live in a data driven world, increasingly reliant on big data and artificial?intelligence. To understand the?world?we need datapoints. But we will never have a perfect understanding of all the?intricacies?a?complex and dynamic environment?possesses. Weather faces this precise issue, so science builds an estimate of climatic dynamics with supercomputer models. It is imperfect but it is better than nothing and?enables to build?a fairly?accurate?picture of what the weather will be with a margin of error. This is better than not knowing at all. It enables populations to stay on their guard during severe weather, be it tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, heat waves etc... In storm chasing we are constantly sifting through data.?From numerical forecast models?to satellite imagery and radar data. But there is a risk in focusing too much on this data output and lose sight of the actual observations on the ground.

Forecast data is unreliable and real-time live data is not completely real time as there is some lag to it... a lag which in our case means the difference between being in the path of the tornado or being at a safe distance. Being aware of our?surroundings is critical and visual cloud cues are one vital part of this awareness. We cannot be solely data driven as this data is imperfect.

We often need to look up from our computer screens?and?follow?our instinct?that needs to process the actual directly observable information.

In the critical phases of a chase, relying on data alone is insufficient and so we need to follow our gut instinct and take snap decisions based on the currently observable cloud formations and wind direction. The same goes for business. Leading a business on data alone is a losing proposition. Data is great for long term strategy planning, defining the environment at a point in time, projecting scenarios for the direction that the competitive landscape could take and what it means for the firm. But once you are in the strategy execution, relying on data alone is no longer sufficient. You need to lift your nose and get real input from clients, employees, suppliers, and competitors. Numbers do not always tell the whole story and you need to get on the ground to gather directly observable cues to understand the true environmental dynamics. This will add color to the data that will?in turn?help your gut instinct?identify?the best course of action to safely reach your?objective.??

As we enter the bear’s cage on June 11th?2018?thick rain bars are hiding the predator lurking in the darkness of the storm. Tornado sirens are still blaring. We take a left turn to get ahead of this huge rotating titan of the heavens but still cannot see any tornado which could be rain wrapped. As we round the corner, we are shell shocked to realize that we have just reached a dead end. Google maps did not update this part of the small village. My radar data is not updated either. We are navigating blind. The wind is now so strong that the trees are about to snap. The urge to panic attempts to?engulf?us. I give short and precise directions to position the vehicle a few hundred yards north away from the possible tornado trajectory and away from the structures and trees that are about to go airborne. I rapidly scan the surroundings for a ditch and instruct the team to get ready to head for it at any moment.

During a tornado event, the worst place to be is inside a vehicle which can be lifted off the ground by the?strong winds?that get under the chassis; the safest place to be is underground. A ditch is a valid alternative if no tornado shelter is available in such an emergency. As we are about to get out of the vehicle, the wind dies down and the rain stops as fast as it had started. The core of the storm has passed at a blistering speed, much faster than what the data was initially suggesting. We check the weather reports and get confirmation that a rain-wrapped tornado was indeed crossing this village, just a few hundred yards south from our position but had lifted as it entered Weeping Waters. We were lucky that day. I underestimated the unpredictability of the environment and over relied on the data. We very nearly executed a perfect blind intercept that would have taken us directly into the tornado and then possibly to the heavens. A lot of my learning took place that day. Overconfidence, balancing risk and reward and overreliance on data were learnt the hard way. Despite this ordeal the team bonded stronger together rallying around me. There was no blaming or shaming. The escape maneuvers were perfectly executed by the team thanks to having the right people in the right roles doing the right thing and following directions without questioning them. The common?objective?the team shares is much stronger than the ordeal we went through. We?have not been harm's way since.?

Conclusion: Accepting that we are imperfect and incapable of perfectly predicting the future is difficult but key. It is the first step in gaining humility as a leader. We?don’t?have all the answers especially in?complex and?dynamic environments. Strategies need to be defined with data as a starting point, but need to be adapted along the way as actual observable information comes in. Ambitious goals need to be set to motivate the teams but need to be carefully balanced with the risks which need to be responsibly assessed with regards to all stakeholders. Being close to the “ground” and collecting actual observable information is important to drive our gut instinct when decisions need to be taken fast in the face of danger. A fast strategy execution and its adaptation can only be enabled when you hire people for their attitude rather than their?skill-set?alone.?The leader must inspire his team to follow him in the face of danger and ensure that his companions find something in it for themselves along the way.??

life?isn't about waiting for the storm to pass; it's about learning how to dance in the rain.