Leadership Trends and Elections in Africa: Recent Trends in West Africa, South Africa, and East Africa

Leadership Trends and Elections in Africa Insights from West- South- and East Africa.mp4

By Dr. Imbenzi George

Introduction

In politics, the electoral processes in Africa are reforming, undergoing a new social engineering and reshaping new dispensation in the process of electing leaders. This research paper briefly looks at new trends and development in West Africa, South Africa, and East Africa minor in the quality of elections, lists some electoral trends, reforms in the electoral processes, and also the aspect of re-inventing leadership for the good of the public region. Minimal case study looks at recent elections in Rwanda (2024), Kenya (2022), and South Africa (2024) in driving and shaping a road map to good governance borne from homegrown democracy and integrity.

West Africa

Recent Trends in Elections

In terms of the democratic “resilience and challenge”, in West Africa, we see both trajectories. On the one hand, Ghana is acclaimed as one of the most democratic nations in West Africa. For instance, in 2020, Ghana’s elections recorded a high turnout, with the elections crammed with people coming to vote. It was adjudged by many as one of the most peaceful presidential elections in recent years in West Africa and successful in terms of transfer of power. Ghanaian institutions were said to be stable and credible. People and observers stood in long queues for hours to vote. On the other hand, the military coups that took place in Mali and Guinea had adversely affected their democratic process, with fear that Guinea and Mali will have a dark future, as there are doubts about their ability to carry forward their democratic process.

Youth Participation

The role of youth in politics is gaining much traction in West Africa. The youth-led movement ‘Not Too Young To Run’ in Nigeria has successfully driven down the age for seeking political office in the parliament and the executive. Many young people across the region are now seeking political office. This movement reflects a wider trend, as youth are increasingly making claims to have a say in politics to advance issues of unemployment, education, social justice, and other matters of their concern.

Innovation in Technology

The integration of innovation in technology is key to reinforcing the credibility of elections with regards to transparency, openness, and efficiency. Examples include Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) or Electronic Voting (EV) voters (Ellis, 2016). While these innovations are informed by the vision of promoting good governance and fighting corruption – by ensuring transparency and reducing fraud – innovation in technology does not come without challenges. Cybersecurity threats and technical failures present challenges in the effective implementation of the technology in question (Erasmus, 2020). For the innovations to be successful, adequate cybersecurity is needed as well as technical support and maintenance.

Quality of Elections

International and domestic election observer missions contribute to the credibility of elections in West Africa. These missions, such as from the ECOWAS and the African Union, provide monitoring and advice regarding the conduct of elections, and help to deter electoral fraud and violence, and increase the legitimacy of the elections (Overview of ECOWAS’ Election Observation Missions, 2014; Holbrook & Heidbreder, 2010). Electoral violence is still a major challenge in a number of countries in West Africa. Although peace accords and alternative dispute mechanisms might have addressed it, mitigating it would require more robust implementation, as long as the root causes like political exclusion and economic disparity have not been addressed in the long term. Kwasi Gyimah-Boadi is deputy editor of the Africa Report. In order to conduct free and fair elections, electoral commissions must be made independent from political parties and less vulnerable to corruption. That means providing them with the resources and the legal ability to conduct electoral processes free from political interference and with public confidence. The more autonomy these bodies have, the better the chances for democratic elections.

Civic Education

Enhancing voter education programs to help inform citizens of their rights and the election process will enhance electoral participation and help reduce electoral fraud. Inclusive programs on civic education should be directed toward all communities with special emphasis on minority sections (Ellis, 2016). Ensure the election process is not riddled with corruption, which undermines the trust of the public, by instituting stiffer penalties for electoral fraud, ensuring the financial transparency of campaigns, and enforcing responsibility for those who are corrupt (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021). Promoting inclusive policies that accommodate diverse groups of individuals (women, minorities, etc.) that help to promote the development of sustainable activities is fundamental to pro-poor development, as this will lead to better social cohesion, and in turn decision-making, being inclusive, representing the voices of all members of the community (Fagbadebo & Ile, 2020). Establishing leadership training programs to train young leaders can create a new generation of leaders who are more ethical and effective by promoting the values of integrity, accountability, and innovative problem-solving (Erasmus, 2020).

South Africa

Recent Trends in Elections

Owing to inherent characteristics in the process of state formation, the African national Congress (ANC that came to power following the end of apartheid has been the dominant force in South Africa ever since. However, corruption scandals and highly questionable governance led to a major reduction in the majority of votes that the ANC received at the 2019 general election, a decline that reflects what is a growing discontent among the people (Fagbadebo & Ile, 2020). The decline in the power of the ANC has contributed to a competitive multiparty democracy. The rising of the oppositions such as DA (Democratic Alliance) and EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) plays big roles. Especially the rise of EFF with its radical economic policies reflecting the frustration of young voters who lost faith in the tension between the ANC and EFF. This is a constitutional step toward a more fierce form of multiparty democracy (Erasmus, 2020). This country’s 2021 local government elections provided a crucial barometer of new political alignments. The ANC, which lost key towns to small parties, suffered major losses while these parties and independent candidates won. The weakening of the ANC suggested that voters were increasingly receptive to the idea that they needed better-performing and more accountable local governments (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021).

Quality of Elections

The Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa is widely attested to as competent and effective in safeguarding elections. This body needs to tackle issues such as voter apathy and technical problems in order to boost participation and technical effectiveness (Holbrook & Heidbreder, 2010). South Africa: media freedom and a free press plays an essential role in informing voters and holding their leaders to account during elections. A free press is essential for providing citizens with the necessary information to exercise their democratic will through electoral choice (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021). One way to do this is by increasing disclosure in campaign financing and party funding. For instance, laws requiring full disclosure of sources and use of campaign contributions and expenditures would help to make the process more transparent and less vulnerable to corruption (Ellis, 2016).

Voter Apathy

Another prong of the attack should be tackling the underlying causes. Disillusionment with political parties and the electoral process, along with a lack of general knowledge about politics and society, are at the heart of voter apathy. Anything to get people involved, especially if it targets the younger generations, is going to boost turnout and help expand the representation of our society. A significant step in closing the trust gap is to increase the capacity and accountability of local government structures so that they are better equipped to deliver services and citizens rebuild their trust in public institutions. Decentralization of power and resources to local governments also makes governance more effective and responsive (Fagbadebo & Ile, 2020).

Re-inventing Leadership

Back-to-basics integrity can play a key role in regaining trust in government, encouraging ethical leadership, and closing gaps in the competence of public office holders by increasing public sector professionalism and strengthening codes of ethics. This would help control the most blatant forms of corruption, such as bribery, nepotism, and coercion. Experiments in education and libertarian paternalism will continue advancing new understandings of democracy and civic life as well as new ‘demand-side’ strategies to reduce corruption. Give young people a say in decision-making and give young people responsibility: involve young people in politics, for example, by enabling 16- and 17-year-olds to vote, and in leadership roles, for example, by mentoring and enabling young leaders to stand for prefect positions in schools, or join government councils and task forces. Formal youth participation can provide beneficial, practical guidance on how to strengthen decision-making. Innovative policy interventions to help solve socio-economic problems can enable leaders to deliver on the needs of their constituencies. Promoting public policies based on evidence, and encouraging inclusive development solutions, is critical (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021).

East Africa

Recent Trends in Elections

A set of electoral reforms in East African countries such as Kenya and Tanzania led to the development of more credible and transparent elections, including the recent presidential elections in Kenya that were annulled by the Supreme Court over irregularities and the re-run that became a hallmark for judicial independence. The issue of tensions and violence in politics traces in some contexts in East Africa. One of such instances is in Ethiopia where violence in the Tigray region has clouded the country’s 2021 general elections. Elections poised a good example to resolve some of such menacing conflicts (Erasmus, 2020). Whether electoral processes are conducted in a fair, transparent manner or otherwise also has a bearing on the political atmosphere of the state. If the political context is adverse, anger towards the government or politicians may even emanate from the loss or gain of one candidate over the other in an election. East African civil society organizations are getting more involved in election observation, voter education, and pushing for democratic reforms. Civic engagement in Uganda, for example, was invaluable during the 2021 elections despite the onslaught and repression from the government. Civic engagement is an important part of ensuring that elections are accountable and transparent (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021).

Quality of Elections

The role of the judiciary in protecting the electoral process cannot be overstated. Kenya’s Supreme Court ultimately annulled elections in 2017, setting a precedent not only for the region but as a ‘beacon of judicial independence’, illustrating that ‘no election in the world can be considered free and fair if the judiciary it is built upon is not considered credible’. This is especially evident in terms of institutions charged with ‘remedying illegitimate electoral processes’ such as ‘the directorate of criminal investigations, the attorney general, independent election commissions, local oversight bodies, journalists and human rights organizations’ (Holbrook & Heidbreder, 2010). International and regional organizations, such as the African Union and the East African Community, commonly send observation missions to elections in order to ensure the integrity of the electoral process; to discourage electoral fraud; and to make recommendations for improvement.

Improving Electoral Processes

Legal Reforms

Such countries need to encourage more fundamental legal reforms that address the loopholes in the legal and electoral applicability of the law in all cases. The electoral legal frameworks should clearly spell out regulations on campaign finance, voter registration, and the management of electoral disputes. In Kenya, the Supreme Court’s annulment of the results of the 2017 presidential election for irregularities shows how decisive credible laws could be. Effective electoral reforms should also include a crackdown on electoral malpractices. These need to ensure higher penalties for vote-buying, voter intimidation, and fraud through reforms that strengthen the legal framework, improve its credibility in the eyes of the citizens, and ensure a fair and transparent electoral process (Ellis, 2016). Electoral systems that have harmonized national laws to reflect international electoral standards can serve as a tool to improve electoral integrity. Laws regarding freedom of expression become relevant where the media plays an important role in the political system. For example, political parties use TV and radio to disseminate information, have extensive resources and expertise, and more potential there is for moneyed interests to influence policymaking. This freedom is important for democracy and, crucially, political parties use the media to disseminate information and can have extensive resources and expertise, thereby posing risks. But moneyed interests, e.g, donors, lobbyists, special-interest groups, and business conglomerates, have sufficient resources and expertise to influence policymaking above a certain threshold.

Capacity Building

A good way to increase the capacity of EMBs is to better train electoral officers in best practice and new and emerging technologies. Use of biometric voter registration systems, for instance, has helped to minimize double voting and other forms of electoral malpractice in places such as Kenya. Capacity building on logistical planning is another crucial area that can help EMBs develop their capacity to conduct elections efficiently. Logistical planning encompasses voter registration, ballot printing, and timely election-material distribution. The technical and operational capacity of EMBs can greatly minimize the logistical issues that often weaken the electoral process. Another crucial area for capacity building is ensuring that electoral staff continuously improve and update their skills and knowledge to meet the challenges associated with carrying out electoral responsibilities. For example, electoral staff might require regular training on fraudulent practices to mitigate election-related security threats and ensure the credibility of elections. Steps like these can vastly improve the capacity of EMBs to navigate the shoals of conducting free and fair elections (Fagbadebo & Ile, 2020; Erasmus, 2020).

Conflict Resolution Mechanisms

Electoral disputes can be prolonged and violent if the mechanisms for resolving them are not robust. Thus, having independent electoral tribunals to adjudicate electoral grievances before they degenerate into violence becomes necessary. In this regard, Kenya’s experience with the post-election violence in 2007, after which the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) was established, sends a signal to the growing number of newly constituted countries that they must ‘get it right’. Similarly useful may be mediation and dialogue involving parties, civil society, and other stakeholders. For example, the National Peace and Mediation Committee in Kenya was effective in facilitating dialogue and reconciliation around the 2013 and 2017 elections. Fortifying these vehicles can help deter the escalation of electoral disputes into violence, which contributes to an electoral quiet. A third recommendation would be for political parties to commit to and prepare for post-election disputes. Management practices can make a meaningful difference. Examples include the degree of centralization and control of the party apparatus, successful economic performance of the incumbent, and the party system, to include the extent of electoral competition. Training and uniting members, including transitions of party leadership, can amplify or attenuate post-election disputes. Experience in an electoral competition, which can improve forecasts of support from incumbents, past defeats, and loyalty to the party leadership also matter. Although this list is not exhaustive, it is still true – resources do matter – but the questions of how to access them and the roles to play in doing so are political matters in their own right. Political parties, civil society, and the media all can play a role in these preliminary steps. There are other steps some can take after an electoral dispute begins.

Re-inventing Leadership

Social inclusion is promoted by encouraging all political actors into an inter-party negotiation – inclusive politics. Allowing every group to have a place at the table to air grievances can help resolve problems of exclusion, marginalization, and polarization: in Rwanda, measures designed to increase the political voice of women and minorities became part of the government’s policy of national reconciliation. Involving disparate groups and majorities in forums that can communicate and contribute to policy-making can help cultivate a sense of stake and incentivize taking responsibility for ‘the greater good’. It can also strengthen relations of mutual trust between citizens and the state, which in turn boosts the legitimacy of political institutions (Ellis, 2016). A shift to participatory governance can likewise yield more responsive, accountable forms of leadership that support the public good (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021).

Women’s Leadership

Bringing women into positions of leadership contributes to making the government more representative and inclusive. For example, following years of leadership by a woman president (since the devastating Rwandan genocide of the 1990s) and legal quotas on political life, women hold more than 60 percent of Rwandan parliamentary seats, the highest percentage in the world. The keys to this level of representation have been legal quotas and political and economic programs to build the capacities of women. Women’s leadership is an important area for positive change in politics. This is because by increasing the number of women (and non-binary and trans people) in leadership positions will bring a more diverse perspective and prevent the needs of a predominantly female portion of a population from being sidelined and overlooked when major policies are decided. Research found that the more female MPs who were in government, the more attention the government’s social agenda paid to vital social issues such as education, healthcare, and family welfare (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021). Policies that allow women (and non-binary and trans groups) to fully participate in politics, for example, leadership training and mentorship programs, can also empower them to have more leadership roles in government.

Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Leadership and governance programs can be better aligned to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to ensure that development efforts are inclusive and sustainable. The SDGs constitute an ambitious agenda for development, relating to the full spectrum of sustainable development issues, from poverty and inequality to climate change and environmental sustainability. Aligning development programs and international and national government development plans to the SDGs can focus governments on inclusive and long-term growth (Ellis, 2016). In Kenya, the country’s broad development blueprint, Vision 2030, incorporates numerous SDGs, focusing on economic growth and transformation, social development and improvement, and environmental sustainability (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021). Political leaders committed to the SDGs can design policies that not only meet the pressing needs of today but also deepen the foundations for tomorrow’s prosperity. Making development strategies more inclusive and equitable can also encourage peaceful relations and reduce the prospects for conflict (Erasmus, 2020).

Case Studies: Rwanda 2024, Kenya 2022, South Africa 2024

Rwanda 2024

Political stability and high female representation are expected to continue with Rwanda’s 2024 elections. A constant political focus on unity and reconciliation is creating favorable politics for inclusive governance. Yet, freedom of political expression and participation of opposition parties continue to worry (Fagbadebo & Ile, 2020). Since the end of the genocide, the one-party dominance in Rwanda has been held by the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), led by President Paul Kagame. RPF leadership has entailed unparalleled economic growth and stability in Rwanda, but also serious concerns regarding political repression and lack of credible political competition. Social and economic stability and progress have generated a political system led by an atypical autocrat. Rwanda has enjoyed consistently rapid economic growth and political stability under Kagame’s leadership. Kigali has emerged as one of Africa’s centers of innovation and entrepreneurial activity. Rwanda’s economic success is now integrally tied to his increased popular support and continuing dominance of the RPF. While performing better in terms of the first two concepts, Rwanda has a poor history vis-a-vis the latter two political freedoms. Opposition parties have been stifled, and the media and civil society have been restricted – raising serious doubts about the democratic nature of the elections. Rwanda is a pioneer of not only national reconciliation but also gender equality and youth engagement in politics. With the largest percentage of women in parliament in the world, as well as planned programs to increase the participation of youth in governance, Rwanda has shown the way.

Analytical Roadmap

To achieve exemplary governance in Rwanda, the following steps are essential: The Rwandan political space must be opened up to allow opposition parties to operate without threat, and to compete effectively. This requires reform of the electoral law, with the consent of opposition parties, to ensure its fair application and the rights of political opponents and critics. A vibrant civil society is essential to keeping the government honest. Ensuring advances in inclusive governance requires that Rwanda encourages the growth of civil society and allows for independent organizations to operate free from excessive interference by the government. Without a free and independent media, democracy lacks the checks and balances it needs to flourish. Rwandan authorities should abolish restrictions on the press and allow journalists to cover political developments without fear of repercussion.

Next Steps

Electoral Reforms

Procedural reforms that lay the foundations for fair competitive elections; they include reform of the composition of the electoral commission to make it more independent and credible. Initiate a national dialogue with all political actors, addressing grievances and building reconciliation. This will create opportunities for renewed political inclusion and trust. Seek and foster support from international organizations and partners in building up democratic institutions and processes, such as through technical help, election monitoring, and capacity-building programs.

Kenya 2022

Kenya’s elections in 2022 provided an important test of the country’s electoral reforms and institutional upgrading for the management of electoral conflict. The elections themselves were relatively peaceful. The process was marked by significant improvements in electoral processes around transparency and efficiency. The judicial oversight over the elections was also exemplary (Gyimah-Boadi, 2021). Political tension was high, the economy was deteriorating, and the COVID-19 pandemic had hit with force. The main electoral contest in this election was between the incumbent, President Uhuru Kenyatta’s party, and the opposition, led by Raila Odinga. Kenya has instituted broad electoral reforms in the wake of the disputed 2007 election, which triggered more than 1,000 deaths and 300,000 people displaced. Some of the key reforms include the creation of the Independent Electoral Commission (IEBC) and instituting biometric voter registration. Courts have been central in protecting electoral integrity. Indeed, the Supreme Court’s ruling on the 2017 presidential election that it was invalid due to irregularities displayed judicial independence and the rule of law. Voter turnout was quite high in the 2022 elections, reflecting significant political participation and engagement by the Kenyan citizenry. The problematic issues of voter bribery, ethnic polarization, and misinformation continued to stifle democratic elections and processes.

Analytical Roadmap

To achieve exemplary governance in Kenya, the following steps are essential: Utilize technology for better counts. This would all help to increase confidence in the election outcomes. Politically incorporate all groups, especially the aboriginal, ethnic, and religious minority populations, in the political marketplace, including through measures to enhance female and youth participation. Corruption in elections needs to be curbed with stiff sanctions for electoral fraud, and greater transparency in campaign financing.

Next Steps

Institutional Strengthening

Impartially fortify the IEBC and ensure its capacity to manage elections and deploy appropriate staff. Fund and resource it to carry out credible elections. Conduct mass civic education campaigns to inform citizens of their right and responsibility to vote. Electoral education can thwart the effects of misinformation and electoral bribery. Establish and implement policy measures to prevent conflict in the aftermath of elections by setting up warning mechanisms to recognize instances of electoral violence and creating community mechanisms to peacefully resolve conflict.

South Africa 2024

South Africa’s elections in 2024 illustrated these shifting political dynamics and growing competition from opposition parties to the ruling African National Congress (ANC) since the end of apartheid. The two ‘challenger’ parties are the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). The campaign sought to combat voter apathy and improve the transparency of the electoral process. Local government and corruption were two priority areas. By making each election difficult for the ANC, and opening up avenues for genuine political competition (from the center-right DA to the left-wing EFF), the opposition is bolstering democracy by encouraging political leaders to be more accountable and responsive. Voter turnout has been much lower in recent elections than in the past because South African voters have become increasingly apathetic about their levels of participation and the political process in general. The government will need to address the causes of voter apathy – entrenched corruption and poor service delivery – in order to make political participation more appealing to a wider range of people. This means that, in the lead-up to 2024, economic challenges are likely to dominate political debate; each party is likely to claim to have the magic bullet that will solve the economic crisis. Here are the key ones that South Africa grapples with: Unemployment, inequality, and slow economic growth remain the biggest challenges for South Africa. These are going to capture most of the political debate in the run-up to the 2024 elections, with each party priding itself to hold the key to resolve the economic crisis.

Analytical Roadmap

To achieve exemplary governance in South Africa, the following steps are essential: Improve the independence and capacity of democratic institutions (especially the Electoral Commission of South Africa [ECSA]) that oversee elections, while increasing funding and other resources to ECSA ahead of the 2019 general election. Create more resilient systems of accountability and transparency in government through strict anti-corruption rules and open governance. Make public officials reveal their assets and interests. Implement comprehensive economic reforms based on full employment, reduced inequality, and growth with equity. This should include comprehensive and inclusive economic policy.

Next Steps

Civic Engagement Initiatives

All kinds of civic engagement and political participation should be encouraged, especially among young citizens. Examples of such initiatives include voter registration drives, civic education programs, and platforms for youth engagement with adult political leaders. Supporting rule of law and governing institutions at the local level. Improve the capacity and hold local government institutions accountable to deliver services and increase public trust. Devolution of power to more local levels of government has been effective in making governance more responsive and effective. Put in place creative policy solutions to confront socio-economic challenges and make policy implementation effective. This means using the power of technology and data analytics to underwrite policymaking and policy delivery.

Conclusion

The spirit of forward progress and transformation, as exemplified in the different elections and leaderships in West Africa, South Africa, and East Africa, is also filled with a challenging carnival of missed opportunities, pools of electoral and governance malfeasance, and bedevilled with political volatility. Despite meaningful improvements in the quality of elections, impacts on public service delivery and democratic governance, electoral violence, corruption, and issues of political instability continue to dominate the terrain of African elections and leadership. More effort is needed in efforts to improve electoral processes and transform leadership through institution-strengthening, inclusivity, and values-enhanced and creative leadership that responsively and resiliently delivers to the public good.

Bibliography

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Erasmus, M. N. (2020). Contextualizing clientelism and vote buying: Towards an African conceptualization of the phenomena. Gender and Behavior, 18(3), 16173-16181.

Fagbadebo, O., & Ile, I. (2020). Democracy and Political Governance in South Africa: The African Peer Review Mechanism. Springer.

Gyimah-Boadi, E. (2021). What is democracy capture? In CDD-Ghana, Democracy capture in Africa: Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria (pp. 20-32). Accra, Ghana.

Holbrook, T. M., & Heidbreder, B. (2010). Turnout in US Presidential Elections: The Impact of Nomination Campaigns. American Politics Research, 38(5), 974–993.

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