LEADERSHIP AT THE CROSSROADS: ANALYSING THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL RACE THROUGH THE LEADERSHIP CIRCUMPLEX (PART 1)

You can't be a serious student of leadership without being fascinated by the current U.S. presidential race. This interest goes beyond intellectual curiosity; it has real-world consequences if Donald Trump regains power—not just for American citizens but for the entire world, including those of us living in the ‘Land Down Under.’

Until recently, it seemed Trump was cruising to victory, completing America's "sleepwalk into fascism." I often found myself exclaiming to my Australian colleagues, “Why don’t these Americans wake up to themselves?” How can millions of people be gaslit and conned by a New York real estate developer? Yet, in just a few month, the fortunes of the Democratic Party have shifted dramatically, now presenting a real chance of victory.

Joe Biden was prepared to peacefully relinquish the presidency—a rare event in human affairs—and cede power to Kamala Harris, who has now assumed the mantle of the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee. Alongside her running mate, Tim Walz, they have turned the presidential race on its head. The events of the past month leading up to November’s election are reminiscent of the long-running dramas Americans excel at producing. Unlike fictional shows such as House of Cards and Breaking Bad, this is a true narrative: The Failed State of the United States of America, as the wonderful ABC radio broadcaster Phillip Adams used to taunt his U.S.-based correspondent with.

All puns aside, this is no Hollywood fiction. The final outcome will have real-world consequences for everyone on this planet and leadership will make the difference. Of course, as a leadership and culture specialist, I would say that.

Leadership is about Interpersonal Influence

Science tells us leadership styles are defined in terms of interpersonal influence, so one could assume they map onto the interpersonal circumplex (IPC)—and they do (de Vries, 2008).

First published by Timothy Leary in the 1950s, the IPC uses a circular graph to conceptualise and measure interpersonal behaviour. While most scientific versions have been developed for research and clinical practice, their use in organisational settings has been limited. The Circumplex Leadership Scan (CLS; Redeker et al., 2014) is the first tool to assess leadership styles associated with each IPC octant (Locke, 2019).

The Leadership Circumplex (CLS360)

The CLS360 was sponsored by an evidence-based coaching and consulting company based in Antwerp, PerCo. Over six years, researchers from three European universities contributed to its form and content. In 2008, Marleen Redeker became the principal researcher, examining the CLS360’s construction and psychometric characteristics. This research confirmed the initial hypothesis that leadership styles could be captured within the IPC framework.

Scientifically valid IPCs are defined by a vertical agentic axis ranging from active, assertive stances (top) to passive, timid stances (bottom), and a horizontal communal axis ranging from warm, affiliative stances (right) to cool, hostile stances (left). Each segment reflects a different blend of agency and communion: adjacent segments are more similar than non-adjacent ones, while opposite stances occupy antipodal segments. The circumplex has been successfully used to assess, analyse, and juxtapose various constructs related to social interactions between leaders, their followers, team members, and entire organisations (Locke and Martin, 2024).

The Zelensky Effect

In 2022, I penned an article about Volodymyr Zelensky, mapping his leadership style onto the Leadership Circumplex.

At the time, the Ukrainian president was witnessing Russian tanks invading his homeland. This former comedian transformed into a heroic “Churchillian” wartime leader, uniting and galvanising his people—and indeed, the world—in the fight against a brutal invading army.

Wharton School Professor, Adam Grant summarises Zelensky’s leadership:

·????? Zelensky's Charisma – Attracts our attention?

·????? Zelensky's Courage – Earns him our admiration?

·????? Zelensky's Commitment – Inspires loyalty through identification (prototypicality) with his group.

Zelensky exemplifies the values central to the identity of the Ukrainian people, as articulated in his statement, "I need ammo, not a ride," signalling his willingness to die protecting his nation. His signature battle green fatigues further reinforce this image.

Wind the clock forward two and half years from 2022, we see the outcomes of Zelensky’s extraordinary leadership. Whilst, the war is far from won, the resilience, courage, and genius of the Ukrainian people under his leadership has been extraordinary. A testament to what healthy strong leadership can achieve in the face of overwhelming odds.

On the other side of the world, we see another nation grappling with the toxic charisma of a wannabe dictator—Donald Trump. Just as I did with Zelensky and Putin, I am curious to compare the leadership styles of Trump, Harris, and Walz through the lens of the IPC.

The Prosecutor, the Coach, and the Real Estate Developer

Harris, Walz, and Trump are 'strong' leaders, high on the Agency axis of the Leadership Circumplex, their leadership styles are Dominant. Both Democratic candidates occupy the top right quadrant—the “leadership sweet spot.” Leaders in this quadrant exhibit assertiveness and warmth, sharing an optimal balance of Dominant Agency and Friendly Communion.

In his article, Insights into Kamala Harris’ Leadership Style, Edward Segal describes this combination of warmth and confidence: “Her leadership style combines assertiveness with compassion, making her both relatable and a strong force.” Tim Walz was chosen as Harris’s running mate for several reasons—his gender, age, state of origin, and importantly, how he complements Harris’s agency with a warmer, friendlier style. Hamse Warfa, who worked with Walz in Minnesota, noted, “I’ve seen his empathy and joy in action. We shared a belief that transformational leadership encompasses empathy, inclusivity, and purpose-driven action.” His approachable style makes him incredibly relatable, with followers frequently chanting “Coach Walz” at his rallies. Consequently, I map Walz within the leadership circumplex’s Coaching style, reflecting his Friendly and Dominant traits, and Harris, more within the Inspirational style, being more Dominant and Friendly.

The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump

In stark contrast, Donald Trump epitomises Hostile Dominance, occupying the top left quadrant of the leadership circumplex, in particular, the Authoritarian style. The CLS360 describes Authoritarian leaders as those who “force employees to obey them, tend to be harsh on employees, and do not accept criticism.” However, the situation is more extreme and dangerous than this.

In Part 2. of LEADERSHIP AT THE CROSSROADS: ANALYSING THE U.S. PRESIDENTIAL RACE THROUGH THE LEADERSHIP CIRCUMPLEX, I will explore in greater depth Donald Trump's toxic leadership style, its impact on followers, healthy and unhealthy charisma, and implications for leadership in organisations.

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