Leaders, you cannot see around corners …. revisited.

Did we see this coming? Some may have, candidly I would guess most did not. I have written in the past about risk assessment, agility planning, what-if scenarios, and business continuity planning. Previously, I suggested we as leaders simply cannot see around corners. I think recent events certainly support that claim. The current pandemic and worldwide response certainly shows, around some corners, there are events so significant we most likely dismissed them as unrealistic possibilities. I know some businesses account for pandemics or epidemics in their planning, what may have been missed in this case, is the magnitude of the response and actions of others. The government did not provide us with a predetermined economic shutdown plan beforehand that would have clued us in to the possibility and that we may have used for our internal planning. Governments, faced with real threat to human life and significant unknowns, took actions in the moment. The consequences of those actions are still unknown. Regardless, this is now the situation we all must deal with. In my lifetime, I can say that I have never experienced a disruption of this magnitude, I would bet this goes beyond anything most of us have imagined even in the most drastic scenario planning or 'what if' analysis we have done. The unprecedented actions and effective global stoppage of commerce has exposed weaknesses in our supply chains, our thinking, our planning tools, our models and our overall approach to business. I remain optimistic, and will always believe that problems present us an opportunity to improve and change. I believe equally, that big problems provide us an opportunity for big improvement and big change. To get through this we are going to need new thinking and new approaches. We are going to have to rethink and reimagine many of our core assumptions. We are going to have to question some of our most closely held beliefs. We are going to have to change, and change fast.

I would happy to take some time and talk through your current situation and I will gladly work with anyone looking for some help, some new approaches or a little outside thinking. I am willing and available to provide support while you navigate this challenge, assess your current strategy, performance, results or if you are just trying to survive. To that end, I am reposting an old article as a reminder that we do live in dynamic times, none of us own a crystal ball. We are blessed with many things and the world is full of intelligent people. Going forward we need to build dynamic, resilient organizations capable of absorbing shocks, able to generate and deploy a rapid response and capable of bigger changes at a pace we previously thought impossible.

Leaders, you just cannot see around corners!

Seeing around corners is a mantra often discussed as a need in business today. The cold hard reality is that you cannot see around corners, that’s what makes them corners. What you can do is prepare, anticipate and be ready to act on what you discover as you turn the corner. More and more today I see businesses trying to manage risk and uncertainty with more process, more forecasting, more controls and more accountability. In a world of global supply chains, rapidly changing customer needs, competitive threats, global and economic uncertainty leaders need to find more effective ways to manage risk. Far too often the solutions being implemented today are requests longer term and more accurate forecasts or more detailed action planning. You cannot control uncertainty, you can only adapt to it. In new product development, companies want to “know” the product will be a market success, they ask product managers to be more accurate with sales estimates 18 months before the product ever launches. The list of requests to be more accurate on longer time horizons is endless today. These requests come while we as leaders constantly claim that uncertainty is the new normal, or we live in “Volatile, Uncertain, Chaotic and Ambiguous” times, making leadership ever more difficult for us. As leaders our goal should be to build a more responsive company. To accomplish this one recommendation I make is creating agility plans. Agility planning is a set of previously determined actions you plan to implement in the event of various challenges or disruptive events.

I am reasonably certain that during the market crash of 1929, when the US entered WWII, during the gas shortages of the 1970’s, during the financial crises in 2008 or throughout the many recessions, natural disasters, weather events or political upheavals that occurred throughout history leaders of the day likely said that they were living in unprecedented times. Change is inevitable, looking all the way back to the Greeks, Heraclitus said, “The Only Thing That Is Constant Is Change.” We all like to think our own times are harder and more difficult, and to be fair, perhaps one difference of our time is the speed at which changes are coming at us. I think we can look to many things in life, and some things we do well in business already to find methods to deal with uncertainty and help us better manage risk. I don’t believe that the business with the best forecast wins, I believe the most agile and adaptable business that invested in preparation wins. The organization that dedicated time and effort to disruption readiness and agility planning, operating with a sound strategy, will be the ones who win.

If this sounds anything like your organization or what you are experiencing please feel free to contact me for a free assessment and planning discussion. I am happy to help. Headwaters consulting at [email protected]

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