Leaders Square Up

On Family Day, the Ontario Leaders’ Debate brought each of the major parties’ electoral hopefuls together to make their political vision heard and put their one-upmanship to the test. Now that we’re nine days away from E-Day, it’s time to revisit the age-old question of “do debates even matter?”??

The Highlights

The hot topics in this debate were healthcare, affordability, and housing. The highlights from the debate were:??

• All opposition leaders committed to connecting Ontarians with a primary care provider within the next four years.??

• Ontario PC Leader Doug Ford focused his remarks on protecting workers and growing the economy as both the best protection against impending Trump tariffs and the best way to fund social programs like healthcare and housing.??

• Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles went on the attack against Ford on the Greenbelt scandal, while speaking directly to Ontarians’ top issue of affordability with promises of grocery rebates and a provincial home-building program, Homes Ontario.?

• Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie promised to cut income taxes for middle-class families and remove HST from home heating and hydro expenses.??

• The Liberal leader also promised to double Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP) benefits, though Ontario Green Leader Mike Schreiner took Crombie to task over not costing this promise and other Liberal commitments on the campaign trail.??

The Lowlights?

Protect Ontario takes a hit

Despite Ford’s ‘Protect Ontario’ strategy, this debate had few references to Trump’s tariff threats. The PC Leader was instead hit hard with attacks on his government’s track record on healthcare cuts, the Ontario Place spa deal, and the “fantasy” tunnel he’s looking to build under the 401.??

Stiles also took a shot at Crombie for raking in $25,000 in donations from “private health care insiders”, even while the Ontario Liberals put a deliberate focus on healthcare in their campaign and attacking the PC track record.???

In breaks between being attacked, Ford also took some time to target Crombie’s record on housing and affordability while serving as mayor of Mississauga. ?

The race for second place

Though Stiles’ strong performance saw a small rise in NDP fortunes in the polls post-debate, the Liberals and NDP seemingly continued their race for second place in the back and forth. The debate did not clinch anything vote-moving for the opposition leaders, meaning more drastic measures may need to be taken to get the PCs to slip-up and pull either party ahead.?

Crombie continued her mission to capture NDP voters in the debate, making the case that the Liberals are the best positioned to take on Ford’s PCs at Queen’s Park and press them to take real action on the healthcare and housing crises.?? ?

Why It Matters

The bottom line: The PCs are still projected to form another majority government, and while the other leaders looked to put on a good showing, the debate appears to have had little to no impact on the polls.??

The PC path to victory: The PCs need to lie low for another nine days and hope to coast to victory. Likely why Premier Ford skipped out again on the post-debate scrum and has?not spoken to the (Ontario) media for more than a week in the middle of the writ period.??

The Liberal/NDP path to victory: Shake things up and hope the PCs slip up. Bold policy announcements, going negative in ad campaigns, and some smart targeting at swing seats might make the difference for the NDP reducing the PCs to a minority, and for the Liberals, official party status.??

What’s next: Advance polls open this Friday and Election Day is next Thursday. Expect:??

• No surprises from the PCs as they stick to their Protect Ontario messaging and try avoiding anything that could mess with their lead.??
• The Liberals and NDP to fight over swing seats, cut more deals, and perhaps release some costed platform commitments in time before February 27.???

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