Latvia: PM Karins to try to form new govt coalition after break of talks with current partners

• Negotiations to be launched with Union of Greens and Farmers, the Progressives
• Announcement follows tension within ruling coalition, rejected of Karins' idea for rotation of ministerial responsibilities
• Potential coalition between New Unity-ZZS-Progressives to control 52 parliamentary seats in 100-strong legislature

PM Karins will start new coalition formation negotiations after talks with current co-ruling partners broke at their latest extraordinary meeting, local media reported on Friday noon. Negotiations will be launched with the Union of Greens and Farmers (ZZS) and the Progressives who are currently sitting in opposition. Karins announced he is not considering stepping down and is determined to pursue the government reshuffle. The announcement for new government coalition negotiations follows a?rejection ?by co-ruling partners National Alliance and the United List of Karins' proposal for a?rotation ?of ministerial responsibilities, suggested earlier this week. On his part, Karins has allegedly rejected a solution proposed by the National Alliance and the United List for further work of the ruling coalition.

We remind that the New Unity-National Alliance-United List coalition controlled 54 parliamentary seats in the 100-seat legislature, while a coalition between New Unity, ZZS and the Progressives would secure a slightly smaller majority at 52 MPs. We remind that after the latest parliamentary election in autumn 2022 the Progressives were considered a potential co-ruling partner in the coalition formed by New Unity, but the idea was strongly opposed by the National Alliance and United List. We see a strong chance of cooperation between New Unity and the Progressives, while the potential of cooperation with ZZS remains slightly more unclear, although strong, given rumours that Karins has already been speaking to both parties for a while now.

We remind that New Unity remains the most popular party at present, with some 12.6% of support registered in July, which marks a slight increase m/m, the latest figures of the SKDS political survey showed. The ZZS followed in second place with 8% of support, also marking a slight increase m/m, while the Progressives came third with 7.9%, down from 9.0% in June. It is likely that PM Karins would try to benefit from the strong popularity of both the ZZS and the Progressives by forming a new coalition with them. Their relatively strong support is in contrast to that of current co-ruling partners National Alliance and the United List, who have seen their support decline in recent months.