Will the Latino Vote in 2016 Be Historic?

The power of the Latino vote is on the rise. Recent reports show that in the upcoming election, Latinos are poised to have a historic influence.  

Here are some key trends to know about:

Latinos are driving population growth in the U.S.

• Between 2010 and 2015, Latinos made up 50% of the growth in the U.S. population. Looking ahead, Latinos will drive much of the future population growth. Within the next two generations, the Latino population is expected to double. By 2060, the Census estimates that 119 million Latinos will live in the U.S., making up more than a quarter of the population. Since 2000, the primary source of growth for the Latino population has been native births, not immigration.

The Latino electorate is growing and is young

• When it comes to eligible voters, Latinos are the fastest growing group. Since the 2008 Presidential election, about 6 million Latinos have become eligible to vote, which is a record. Currently, there are estimated to be 27 million Latinos overall who are eligible to vote, about 12% of the electorate. In this election, Latinos are projected to comprise almost the same share of the electorate as Blacks voters. By 2018, the number of eligible Hispanic voters will likely exceed the number of eligible Black voters. 
• The median age of Latinos born in the U.S. is only nineteen. Consequently, the Latino electorate trends younger. Compared to all other racial and ethnic groups in the U.S, Millennials make up a higher share of eligible Latino voters (44%). 

The Latino electorate is becoming more educated and skews female

• An increasing number of Latinos are going to college. Between 1993 and 2013, the number of young Latinos enrolled in college tripled. As a result, twice as many eligible Latino voters have at least some college compared to those who have only finished high school, which is a big change from 2000, when those two numbers were comparable. 
• Since the 1980s, Hispanic women have been enrolling in college at significantly higher rates than Hispanic men. In the upcoming election, nearly one million more Latina women will be eligible to vote than men. 

Latinos lean heavily Democratic and will play a key role in several battle ground states

• Over the last fifty years, Latinos have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in every single election. A recent poll of likely voters found the same trend this year with 65% of Latinos reporting they are voting for Hillary Clinton and only 17% reporting that they are voting for Donald Trump.
• While the size of the Latino vote is growing, it’s influence is concentrated in a small number of states.  Over half (52%) of all eligible Latino voters live in just three states – California, Texas, and New York. Of those three states, only Texas is in play this year as a potential swing state.
• Latinos make up a significant percentage of the vote in three key battleground states: Arizona (17%), Florida (18%), and Nevada (17%). A recent poll in battleground states found that more than half of Latinos said it was their desire to stop Trump that makes this election more important than the 2012 election. 

Getting out the vote

• Lower levels of turnout have limited the political influence of Latino voters. Historically, Latinos have had significantly lower voting rates than other groups – 18 percentage points lower than Blacks and 16 percentage points lower than whites in 2012 – mostly due to lower voter registration rates. Reasons behind this low voter turnout range from economic and language barriers to political socialization. For more on this topic read this New York Times post.
• Yet, given the larger issues surrounding this campaign like immigration, the Latino vote is expected to be high in 2016. New data released from the California Civic Engagement Project at UC Davis found just that. In the June 2016 primary in California, registered voter turnout among Latinos was 22 percentage points higher than in the 2008 Presidential primary. Almost 38% of eligible Latino voters went to the polls, which was higher than the Asian-American turnout in the state. 
• Analysis by the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Education Fund predicts that just over 13 million Latinos will vote in 2016, which will be a 17% increase in turnout and an 8.7% increase in the Latino share of the vote since the last Presidential election. 

Ultimately, the influence of the Latino electorate will come down to being registered to vote and getting to the polls. If Google searches are indicative of what will happen on election day, Latino turnout may reach an all-time high. Recent analysis found that there has been a surge in Google searches about voter registration, with the highest rates of searches occurring in Hispanic areas.   

Follow Marianne on Twitter @Coopermarianne and like her on Facebook For more on how families are coping in an uncertain age see Marianne’s book Cut Adrift: Families in Insecure Times.