The Latin Explosion of the 21st Century: Who's Next?

The music industry is foaming at the mouth over the unexpected phenomenon of Latin and reggaeton music. Latin music has had explosive growth since 1999 both global/domestic markets. There’s a variety of factors that has played into the explosive growth of the genre. Never has foreign music been able to break the language barrier in American markets to compete with English speaking artists until now. How did the superstars of Latin music do it? Which genre could be next to have this exponential growth? There are a ton of rhythmic/musical, cultural, and market factors that should all be examined when looking at Latin outlook. Let’s take a brief overview of these factors and see if there are any similarities to be drawn between other genres of music.

Most Latin music follows a “clave” rhythmic pattern. There are two clave patterns: a 2-3 or 3-2 pattern. In a 2-3 pattern, the first measure contains two beats of the clave rhythm, and the second measure contains three beats of the clave rhythm. 3-2 is the opposite of 2-3. A song will only be based on one version of a clave rhythm. The clave rhythm is the basis for the rhythmic parts of a song, but is doesn’t have to be played exactly. The rhythm is implied, but still drives the groove of the song. This differs from most western music, mostly because western music either has a 4-4 or 2-4 pattern which is more symmetrical. This mostly would contribute to the songs “danceability” which is a measure of how easy it is to dance to a specific song based on beat, tempo, rhythm stability, and beat strength. These Latin songs have the potential for a high danceability, which increases the number of places the song can be played. The high danceability combined with the high versatility across multiple genres maximizes the reach that Latin music by itself can have, even with the language barrier. People think with their feet, which makes the music language-agnostic. Since there are Latin American populations all around the world due to a diaspora, Latin music is also produced with a global ear – which is another factor of its worldwide appeal. That’s why you’ll find Bad Bunny house-track remixes playing in New York City clubs, where everyone speaks English.

Latin and reggaeton are one of the most versatile genres in the mainstream right now. In terms of reggaeton, the micro-genre is a crossover between Latin/dance/rap. Dance and hip hop are two of the biggest genres globally and being able to have artists that can freely move between them widens the appeal of reggaeton. Latin pop used to be produced for thier Latin audiences, seen as a niche to a very specific market. The Latin market was based on romantic ballads in the 80s, like Cuban based boleros. However, in the late 90s more energetic Latin dance music started to take the scene. Think about Los Del Rio’s “Macarena” to Elvis Crespo’s “Suavemente” to Ricky Martin’s “Livin La Vida Loca” to Juanes’ “La Camisa Negra.” These tracks were among the first Latin tracks to be able to break into western radio (and my kindergarten class), despite the tracks being sung entirely in Spanish. The commercial success of Latin music could not be ignored after what industry experts call “The Despacito Effect.” Latin Americas champion of 2017 was Luis Fonzi with the smash hit that would change Latin music forever. Despacito was the first time that any song sung in Spanish sat atop the Billboard Hot 100 for over 16 weeks. Since then, the industry has been hungry to recreate the successes of the smash hit. The American radio market loved the hit song and opened the ears of most the new-age American streamers to Latin music. Although there had been Latin superstars previously (like Shakira), I think the success of the post-despacito-effect superstars are on a different level. Latin music stars like Bad Bunny, J Balvin, Rauw Alejandro, and Rosalia are currently dominating the global music industry and have cemented their genres spot in the big leagues. Bad Bunny is the most prominent example, simply due to his record-breaking streaming/touring revenue. J Balvin isn’t far behind either. The only problem for the genre right now (and this exists for most genres of music right now) is that it’s very top heavy. The artists like J Balvin and Bad Bunny have 90%+ in the market share of Latin Music, and the indie scene isn’t as heavy as hip hop or country since the genre is so global. For example, “Un Vernano del Sin” currently holds a staggering 16% of the Latin market share, which is unprecedented from any genre. Sony is currently trying to utilize the “Drake Model” on their smaller Latin artists to diversify, by putting Bad Bunny on songs with smaller artists in an effort to increase exposure while Universal/Warner are trying to catch up with Bad Bunny’s success. ???

The rise of streaming and the subsequent rise of Latin music have a very high correlation. As Spotify’s customer base widens, it increases access to millions of Latin songs to global citizens. A large part of this is Latin America gaining access to streaming services. According to the IFPI’s (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) 2018 report Latin American countries were one of the fastest adopters of streaming in developing countries. There was huge growth for streaming platforms especially in south and central american countries like Peru (21.7%), Brazil (17.9%), Chile (14.3%), Colombia (10.5%) and Mexico (7.9%). This provided a solid base of Latin American consumers to use as a baseline before trying to appeal to global audiences, as these audiences increase they will have more power over the global music industry. The growth of streaming in these countries then drove the growth of the Latin genre, according to the Luminate 2022 mid-year report the Latin genre’s streaming numbers grew 33% in 2022. The week of the release of “Un Verano Del Sin” the genre surpassed country and EDM to become the 4th most popular genre in the American markets. Western audiences are driving the second end of this growth – especially in the touring space. The number of Latin acts at Coachella doubled within the past 2 years, with Bad Bunny having one of the highest grossing tours ever generating over 400 million dollars in revenue across North and South Americas. Latin music expects to gross over 1 billion dollars in recorded music revenue next year, and if this current growth rate keeps up will pose a major threat to the established genre markets.

It's an exciting time for the Latin genre, and it doesn’t look like this explosive growth is stopping anytime soon. The music industry is looking to not only capitalize on the success of Latin music, but also see how to reach developing audiences abroad with existing genres. I think Latin and Country music have certain comparisons that are worth exploring, both musically and in their place in the market. Country music today is not unlike Latin music in the early 2000’s. There are some country superstars who are widely known and generate international buzz (Garth Brooks, Dolly Parton, Florida Georgia Line, and Morgan Wallen). Despite this, country music and Latin music at this time is produced for their core audience. Country music is also very radio-focused since it’s public performance royalties are of the more stable revenue streams for labels/artists. The problem with making music to be radio focused is since radio is inherently regional by nature, it’s difficult to make music that appeals for a global audience. Country music also has a lot of versatility, recently shown by Morgan Wallen in his song Broadway Girls and You Proof. Wallen showed that country stars can have success collaborating with hip hop artists and using hip hop instrumentals despite the massive differences between the two audience's. There are some major streaming country artists that are making a name for themselves in the digital world, with a sound that isn't radio-friendly. Zach Bryan, who isn’t played as much on country radio but puts up historic streaming numbers, is one such example. There’s not a lot of data on Zach Bryans global reach, but I hypothesize as more country artists become streaming focused the global reach of country music will increase. Will country music will have its own version of reggaeton? Could country become as much of a global powerhouse as pop, rock, hip hop, or latin? I believe it’s more likely than some people think, especially if the streaming numbers of country music continue to rise.