Latest UP Poll: BJP could win a landslide but....

As the father and son fight an unseemly war in public, the latest poll showes a muddled situation in UP. The CSDS poll for ABP news considers two circumstances, AY and MY contesting as different parties and SP contesting on its own.

The CSDS ABP Poll and comparison with India Today Axis Poll (October)

The SP continues to be doing well and in line with the August poll with 30% vote share. If one were to combine the two polls of CSDS and Axis, the range of vote share for SP is between 25% to 30%. In case of BJP, the range varies between 27% and 31%. Historically, CSDS has under estimated BJP vote share in UP and in that context I reckon that Axis Poll may be closer to reality with respect to the BJP while it is likely that SP may be close to 27% instead of 30%. My sense therefore is that the BJP continues to enjoy a slight edge over other parties and this edge could translate to a landslide should the AY MY battle continue after the election notification. Either way, it is likely that the confrontation has damaged the SP in this election. The other X factor is the BSP. It is predicted to win 22% and when combined with the other poll, it is expected to win about 25% of the votes. The Congresss would end at 8% and in combination with the Axis poll about 6% of the votes.

The issues

One thing is sure, it appears that neither surgical strikes nor demonetisation have dramatically changed the narrative in the UP polls so far. Opinion polls had shown huge shifts only when Akhilesh had aggressively promoted his development work in the State during July-August. This suggests to me and as was evident in 2014, development agenda will swing most voters towards a party. With quality of life and employment remaining the top issues, parties are best placed if they talk about these two issues. Further, leadership that is most trusted on these issues is likely to win most votes. In that sense, this is increasingly likely to be a AY vs Modi election, a discomforting prospect for Mayawati and even the BJP to some extent given its lack of a strong local leader to counter AY.

The importance of ending the SP feud quickly

Whatever the stated reasons for the SP feud, it is causing some damage to party worker morale while confusing the swing voters in UP. Ideally, the SP should have gained from the demonetisation debacle given the negative feedback in rural areas about demonetisation. Instead, it seemed to have gained OBC votes marginally while as expected losing some upper caste votes (in the polls). The public feud while occupying the public space does not reflect well for a party that is keen on ruling the State for another 5 years. However, all would be forgotten if the feud ends favorably once the EC announces the dates for the election today. The SP could then leverage on a 3-4 party alliance to aim a 35% share (27% from SP, 6% from Congress and 2-3% from others) in the election and win a comfortable majority. In the meanwhile the party structure remains nervous.

Tha Maya Mystery

No one knows UP politics better than Mayawati. Almosy everyone we speak with suggests that Mayawati will do really well if she aligns with the Congress party. Our estimate is that a BSP INC combine could cross the 35% vote share mark and win a majority in the UP election. However, she has repeatedly denied any possibility of an alliance. There are three possibilities why this is the case, One, she may have picked up a better sense of what people want and therefore this strategy. The second more cynical reason is that she is under some pressure not to have an alliance with the Congress. The third reason is that she genuinely believes that the Congress party will not add value to her. Mayawati did poorly in 2014. So in that sense she could go wrong again, time will tell.

BJP well positioned to win a landslide but...

During the entire demonetisation period and inspite of news about rural distress, the BJP has remained steady with about 27% share. It tells us that no amount of negative news is pushing the BJP vote share down. Assuming that the Axis poll is more accurate, BJP is starting with a 31% share. All it needs is is about 3-4% of votes at the fag end of the campaign and sweep UP. It can achieve this by consolidating the upper caste votes and gaining small shares of OBC and Dalit Votes. The Dalit votes in particular are susceptible given Maywati's confusing campaign strategy. The gains from upper castes and OBC are likely to occur if the SP feud continues after notification of the election. Voters want certain and stable choices and a party that is permanently in feud is unlikely to attract the attention of swing voters. Lastly, the inability of the Congress party so far to stitch an alliance is good news for the BJP. Any alliance between Congress and any of the leading players would severely damage the BJP chances. With the unstable situation in terms of SP and alliances in the State, there is no pressure on the BJP to announce a CM candidate. That keeps them comfortable for the time being. The next 30 days while crucial for all parties are a high risk period of the BJP. Should the AY situation be dramatically resolved and a large umbrella alliance appear out of nowhere, a large caste and minority based consolidation will finish off the BJP's chances in UP.

Opinion polls ...

All of us can now be pretty confident that the opinion polls are likely to be wrong. The increasing penetration of social media is driving a much larger % of voters to take decisions in the very last moment flummoxing opinion pollsters. What we should keep track is which way the momentum is shifting and how it is progressing across voting groups. The other two issues that we should track are to see how each party is doing on the leadership and satisfaction questions. An improving trend for a party could signal a momentum in favor of the party. Lastly, we should keep our eye on any controversial issue that might come up at the very end and damage one party much more than the other.

On a different note, our research has again and again showed that in today's environment there are multiple models of governance and with increasing transparency and volatile media environment Governments cannot fool people for long. It is likely therefore that whoever comes to power will have to deliver the goods in UP. That at the end of the day matters more than who wins the election.