Latest UK University Application Data July 24
My thoughts on the latest student application data for UK universities. Where do we stand?
I’ve just finished watching the UCAS June 30th data webinar.?They released this data last week and it was buried amongst the news that they are scrapping the traditional personal statement process so I don’t think people realised the application numbers aren't great but not entirely surprising.
Headlines from UCAS so far up to the 30th June:
?? 1.6% decline in UK undergraduate (UG) applicants
?? 2% decline in international UG student applications.
?? 66% of international UG students have applied to other countries too so they may try to trade up when they get their exam results.
?? More students holding offers as we go into clearing.
? Clearing normally makes up 15% of the total student applications so technically 85% of the UK market is finalised.
?? % of UK students going to Uni - down 3% YoY to 41%.
?? Jan to June applications down 18% compared to 2023 in same period.
Don’t forget the majority of Postgraduates book direct to uni and around 60% of international UGs apply through UCAS.
So that’s UCAS' data so far. About 2% down, doesn’t look like clearing will be particularly big given that so many students are holding firm offers but there could still be plenty of trading up given the 'flight to quality' where students are now more discerning about their uni choices.
Now lets have a look at the Enroly data alongside this. Enroly is the service that many universities use for their international students to apply to university. They have partners like Anglia Ruskin University , Coventry University , 英国杜伦大学 , 英国牛津布鲁克斯大学 . Etc. It’s a cross-section of Russell Group of Universities but mainly Post 92 unis.
More than 1-in-3 international students arriving to the UK are being enrolled with Enroly.
So what are they saying??Thanks to Dave Amor for some of this insight (he's well worth a follow).
?? Confirmation of Acceptance (CAS) issuance was down 42% in July
?? Postgrads are down more heavily than Undergrads (-53.8% vs. -18.8%)
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?? Top 5 markets all down significantly.
?? India & Nigeria down over 60%. China down 33%
?? Enroly forecast a final position of -30% overall for international students.
-30%.
Sobering news. So if Enroly are forecasting a 30% drop amongst their primarily post 92 clients, then I would expect it'll be slightly less of a drop incorporating more RG uni applications, say a 20% drop but hopefully more like a 10-15% drop. For PBSA though which is mostly international this isn't great news for this year.
Now let's look at UK Home Office data for study visas issued up to June 2024.
?? Study Visa applications in January to June 2024 (87,300) were 17% lower YoY.
?? Dependent study VISAs 80% down - obviously.
The previous government used international students as a method of reducing the net migration figures. By using the threat of a reduction in the post-graduation work visa (from 2 years to 0-6 months permission to stay post graduation), they effectively tarnished the international reputation of our higher education system which is the biggest act of self sabotage to an industry worth ￡45 billion annually to the UK - ??. This 'will they, won't they?' approach caused massive uncertainty among international students who have had their heads turned by other countries.
However with visa delays and visa caps the market is still very much alive and the UK does have an opportunity to make up this deficit if the wind blows the right way. It's certainly not all in our hands any more.
There are some tough markets in the UK at the moment, particularly where the pipeline of completed PBSA developments has closed the supply/demand gap and prices are high.
However there is plenty of good news here:
I still firmly believe that if you build sustainable, good value PBSA (value, not just affordable) then you'll deliver for students.
This all does throw up some questions though...
#intled #pbsa #highred #studentaccommodation #studenthousing #studyabroad #university #clearing #students #internationalstudents #ucas #highereducation #chinesestudents #indianstudents
Associate Director | CUBO Honorary Membership, Best Residence Life 2024
7 个月Chantelle Hall Carol Thomas
Founder & Owner at De la Cour Communications
7 个月Agree Dan Smith UCAS did appear to bury the June data by throwing a dead cat about changes to personal statements that didn’t seem that significant really., here was my take on the figures looking at an international as well as a domestic perspective https://www.universityworldnews.com/post-mobile.php?story=20240723194439399
Experienced International Education Data & Market Analyst | Recruitment Strategist | China Specialist
7 个月There should be concern on a domestic front too.... declining UK UG applications are an indicator that demographics alone won't sustain universities and all associated businesses. Cost of living and cost of study appear to be reducing appetite for university as debt and the declining differential between graduate and non-graduate salaries cause more to question value/ROI. Internationally, with GBP strong against almost all currencies globally recently, price will push students to other countries. Could discounts/offers from PBSA operators affect this? Yes... as accommodation is a major element of cost and it all gets factored in to final decision making.
Sales & Business Development Director at Housing Hand | Rent Guarantor Service
7 个月Very insightful data Dan! As you mention at the end, there is plenty of good news and I think this will be a later market this year. A lot of the PBSA, BtR and Letting Agent partners we are working with at Housing Hand are always looking at ways to offer greater value to their students. Without doubt adding more flexible rental payment options to the traditional termly or upfront schemes is driving greater occupancy, even in markets that have been happy in the past with the standard offerings, such as China, GCC countries & USA. This along with some of the innovative services and wellbeing support many operators are now offering, makes the decision process easier for first years, as well as returning students.
Business Director in the student accommodation sector @ GoBritanya & Stuhomes | MBA. Sales, Partnership, Development, Planning and Growth.
7 个月Insightful read, thanks for sharing.