The latest news in the logistics industry 01/06/2023
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This newsletter's summary
Figure of the week
1.8 million TEU
According to Drewry's Container Equipment Forecaster, new container output will plummet to its lowest level since 2009, a recession-wracked year, by 2023.
Sea freight: what if there is no peak season in 2023?
The market pessimism deepens as the weeks pass. While the overwhelming assumption has been expecting a summer comeback this year, a new sound bite is emerging: no?peak season?this year is not unthinkable. For starters,?stockpiles are straining to empty. The US Census Bureau recently reported that the decline in stockpiles on the other side of the Atlantic was not moving fast enough. Stocked volumes in the United States are leveling off among manufacturers and even increasing among distributors and retailers.
One possible reason is that we have truly exited the Covid setting and are witnessing a?rebalancing of consumer expenditure?between goods and services (in favor of the latter). This would have a "long-term negative impact on container volumes." As a result, the following peak season in 2023 may not occur," says Alan Murphy of Sea-Intelligence.
Finally, the ongoing normalization process, along with a sluggish economic background, may provide ocean freight with a year of -rare - stability in 2024. Spot freight pricing already reflects this.
In summary. The timeliness of container ships is improving.?Comparing April to March, the hourly dependability rate of cargo ships globally increased by 1.7 points to 64.2%. The average ship delay reduced dramatically to 4.34 days (-0.72 days).
Three maritime-related news items to consider this week
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MSC will restart its Swan service between Northern Europe and China, via Poland and the Baltic States, on June 9. This is a direct result of the "divorce" declared between the two partners of the 2M partnership, as the route was formerly run jointly by MSC and Maersk. According to Linerlytica, MSC is "snubbing (Maersk's) efforts to contain capacity on the route by reducing speeds on existing services."
2. Transatlantic interest rates continue to decline...
Spot rates between Europe and North America are continuing to fall. Drewry's World Container Index for the Rotterdam-New York route fell 10% last week to 3,969 USD/FEU, while other major transactions held steady. The downward trend is expected to continue in the following weeks.
?3. However, the Latin American market is resistant.
This is one of the more active secondary routes right now. According to Hapag-Lloyd, all of its ships destined for Latin America are "bursting at the seams." Rates for Europe-South America commerce remain much higher than pre-pandemic norms, at approximately 4200 USD/FEU, according to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX). Although this is half of what it was in mid-2022, it is still about three times what it was in 2019. Above all, rates have been rather constant for nearly three months.
Spot air freight prices are gradually reverting to pre-Covid levels.
According to WorldACD, air freight volumes?declined by 4%?in the week of May 15 to 21, indicating that the sector is still in what appears to be a gradual phase of erosion-normalization. To be honest, the market is performing well, and this is a?favorable moment for shippers, with capacity available on all major trades and rates that are reasonable. In particular, the sluggish rate drop appears to be decreasing and merging with a certain level of stability. According to the TAC Index, rates in China are about?50% lower than in 2022?and are approaching 2019 levels.
According to WorldACD, certain routes performed exceptionally well in terms of transported tonnages from May 8 to 21: +19% between the Middle East and Asia, +14% between the Middle East and Europe, and?+11% between Asia-Pacific and Europe. According to various cargo businesses, some items, such as medicines, are now demonstrating considerable dynamism.
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????Until Next Week
DocShipper Team
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