Are we on the cusp of a generative AI revolution?
- As new artificial intelligence technologies, such as ChatGPT, capture the public’s imagination, are we at a tipping point in technological advancement — or is this the next bubble? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Eric Sheridan, head of Internet coverage, and Kash Rangan, head of software coverage, discuss the technologies and investment implications, as well as the challenges and opportunities in the space.
Should investors stay invested in 2023?
- 2022 was a difficult year for investors' portfolios, and while our Investment Strategy Group expects this year to be less turbulent for markets, there is still a fog of uncertainty facing investors. So, should investors stay invested in the markets? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the Investment Strategy Group and chief investment officer of Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs, addresses this question and outlines her team's investment themes and views for the year ahead.
Why investors are leaning into alternatives: Apollo’s Marc Rowan
- In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Marc Rowan, CEO and co-founder of Apollo Global Management, speaks with Alison Mass, chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, about leading one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, the fundamental changes that are reshaping markets and economies, building a strong workplace culture, and why everyone should “be curious, not defensive.”
The Bigger Worry: Growth or Inflation?
- Recession was the big fear heading into 2023, but the global growth outlook seems to be — if anything — improving. But could this better growth outlook in itself reignite inflation concerns? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Goldman Sachs Research’s Jan Hatzius, Stanford’s Hoover Institution’s John Cochrane and Carlyle Co-founder David Rubenstein dig into the risks around an inflation resurgence. This episode is based off of Goldman Sachs’ most recent Top of Mind report, “The Bigger Worry: Growth or Inflation?”
How Employee Ownership Models Can Boost Returns: KKR’s Pete Stavros
- In this episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs: Great Investors, Pete Stavros, co-head of Americas Private Equity at KKR, speaks with Alison Mass, chairman of Goldman Sachs Investment Banking, about his role in implementing broad-based employee ownership models, his views on the economy and investment landscape, and his efforts to enhance the financial resilience of the workforce.
As China reopens, what’s ahead for commodities in 2023?
- Commodities were the best-performing asset class in 2022 but have recently taken a hit as recession fears loom. So what's in store for them in 2023? In the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research, explains why commodities are poised to outperform.
What’s The Deal? | U.S. Inflation Reduction Act: Mobilizing for an Opportunity of a Lifetime
- The passage of recent U.S. legislation, including the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Inflation Reduction Act, and CHIPS and Science Act, is expected to transform how the world creates and uses energy. Join Rama Variankaval, Global Head of Corporate Finance Advisory and Center for Carbon Transition, and Heather Zichal, Head of Global Sustainability at JPMorgan Chase & Co., as they explore how mobilizing capital at scale could reshape sectors like clean tech, startups to enterprise companies and the broader economy. This episode was recorded on February 16, 2023 This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other products or services to any person or entity. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
Market Matters | FICC Market Structure: The Electronic Trading Evolution
- One of the biggest drivers of market structure change has been the growth of electronic trading. In this podcast, Kate Finlayson, Head of FICC Market Structure, Chi Nzelu, Head of FICC eTrading, and Andreas Koukorinis, Head of Credit and Public Finance eTrading, discuss the emerging themes surrounding electronification across asset classes. This episode was recorded on January 31, 2023. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of JPMorgan Chase & Co, and its affiliates, together J.P. Morgan, and do not constitute research or recommendation advice or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, are not issued by Research but are a solicitation under CFTC Rule 1.71. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you, and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. The FICC market structure publications, or to one, newsletters, mentioned in this podcast are available for J.P. Morgan clients. Please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative should you wish to receive these. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
Market Matters | Data Assets & Alpha Group: DATA DEEP-DIVE: Signal from the Noise Framework
- In this episode, the group provides a deep-dive into their Signal from the Noise framework, explaining the context, framework and methodology. They also explain their recent expansion of the framework to cover Europe, China and Japan indices, and regional variations in the signals. Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group, is interviewed by Edwina Lowe, Data Product Specialist within the team. This episode was recorded on February 8, 2023. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use and is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: https://www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
Market Matters | Data Assets & Alpha Group: A YTD Short Squeeze – Assessing Global Equity Signals From Here
- In this episode, the group dig into the YTD rally in global equities, looking at the extent to which it has been a pain trade, with shorts squeezing and popular ‘momentum’ equities underperforming. They then dive into their Global Signal from the Noise framework to assess equity signals from here. Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group, is interviewed by Edwina Lowe, Data Product Specialist within the team. This episode was recorded on February 6, 2023. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use and is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: https://www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
Market Matters | FICC Market Structure: Our Watchlist for 2023
- This podcast explores key themes and drivers of market structure change that are likely to be top of mind for buy- and sell-side market participants. Kate Finlayson, Penn Nee Chow and Meridy Cleary discuss the FICC Market Structure team’s annual watchlist, including EU clearing dynamics, the move to T+1 settlement, the trading venue perimeter, energy markets and much more. This episode was recorded on January 31, 2023. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of JPMorgan Chase & Co, and its affiliates, together J.P. Morgan, and do not constitute research or recommendation advice or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, are not issued by Research but are a solicitation under CFTC Rule 1.71. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you, and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. The FICC market structure publications, or to one, newsletters, mentioned in this podcast are available for J.P. Morgan clients. Please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative should you wish to receive these. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
What’s The Deal? | Conversations with Dealmakers: Jennifer Nason
- How does a self-professed “accidental banker” from Australia become a Global Chair of Investment Banking at J.P. Morgan’s New York headquarters? In this episode, Jennifer Nason speaks to Catherine Guan from J.P. Morgan’s Corporate Finance Advisory team. Jennifer led J.P. Morgan’s Technology, Media and Telecommunications global client practice for more than two decades and is now a member of our Investment Banking Executive Committee. She reflects on the rapid industry changes and navigating challenging times, from the tech bubble to COVID-19. Plus, hear about Jennifer’s proudest moments while at J.P. Morgan and her advice for the next generation of female investment bankers. This episode was recorded on October 4, 2022. This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or to provide any other products or services to any person or entity. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
Equity Strategy: Monetary signals are pointing to trouble ahead - not to be dismissed lightly
- Speaker: Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy The equity market rebound since October is drawing investors in. Many, who were convinced last summer that any rally should be seen as just a bear-market rally, are now nurturing increasing optimism that recession can be avoided altogether and that earnings could stay resilient. While we were looking forward to a market rebound from Q4 of last year, and believe that initially Q1 will stay robust, given what was light positioning and supportive seasonals, we do not expect that there will be a fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher, and see rally fading as we move through this quarter, with Q1 possibly marking the high for the year. The key monetary signals are sending warning signs: 1. Yield curve is staying heavily inverted. We have never escaped a recession from this point. 2. Money supply keeps moving lower in both the US and in Europe. In fact, US M1 has entered outright contraction territory, on a yoy basis, for the first time since 2006. 3. Bank lending standards have been tightening, with a sharp falloff in demand for credit, similar to what has been seen ahead of past recessions. 4. Are market expectations for Fed cutting rates in 2H going to be vindicated, especially if there is no pain in the real economy? We could indeed see a Fed pivot, but perhaps only in response to a much more problematic macro setup than the market is currently looking forward to. Historically, equities do not typically bottom before the Fed is advanced with cutting, and we never saw a low before the Fed has even stopped hiking. It might be premature to believe that recession is off the table now, when Fed will have done 500bp+ of tightening in a year, and the impact of monetary policy tended to be felt with a lag on the real economy, of as much as 1-2 years. The damage has been done, and the fallout is likely still ahead of us. US mortgage payments as a share of income doubled, and the savings rate has gone down almost to zero. 5. Finally, even as the Fed goes on a pause after March/May, quantitative tightening will stay in the background. A year ago, a measure of “excess liquidity” – the expansion of central banks’ balance sheets relative to the growth in the nominal economy, has peaked, and started to contract for G5. In 2022, the differential was at -5%. This year, excess liquidity reduction is likely to be much more significant, at -14%. The question is whether financial markets will absorb this without any hiccups, especially after the complacency has crept in, with VIX at 20 and Bull-Bear optimistic now. This podcast was recorded on 19 February 2023 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4338331-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
All into Account: ‘Get better results with Quantamental Data from Macrosynergy’ with Ralph Sueppel, Managing Director of Macrosynergy
- Speakers:Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Ralph Sueppel, Managing Director of Macrosynergy This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4332679-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
All into Account: Regime Change: Japan to join the positive world
- In this latest episode of our All into Account podcast Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research is joined by our colleagues in Japan, Ayako Fujita, Chief Japan Economist, Tohru Sasaki, Head of Japan Macro Research, Takafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research, Ben Shatil, Japan Senior Economist and Rie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy, to discuss Japan’s exit from negative yields and a low inflation equilibrium, including the longer-term implications for global markets and liquidity from our recently published note J.P. Morgan Perspectives: Japan’s Big Exit: Ten Questions about Japan’s Regime Change. Speakers:Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research Tohru Sasaki, Head of Japan Macro ResearchAyako Fujita, Chief Japan EconomistTakafumi Yamawaki, Head of Japan Fixed Income Research Benjamin Shatil, Japan Senior EconomistRie Nishihara, Head of Japan Equity Strategy This podcast was recorded on February 13, 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4320561-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
Equity Strategy: US vs International convergence remains one of the main regional calls, along with OW UK and OW China
- Speaker: Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equity Strategy Big picture, we believe that the equity rally that we hoped would be driven by peaking bond yields/CPI, China reopening, and the fall in European gas prices, is unlikely to get the fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher as the year progresses. Once the positioning recovers, Q1 is in our view likely to mark the high point of the market. Given this setup, the question is why not do the traditional regional shift, out of International plays and back to the US. We do not believe that the best way to position for the upcoming risk reduction that we envisage is to favour the S&P500. We argued for a convergence trade entering 2022, out of the US and into International, and would advise to keep it, even with potential equity weakness from here. US might not be a good place to hide this time around, as Technology is moving from secular to cyclical. Despite our view of peaking bond yields from October, when we advised to close the shorts on Tech, the sector is unlikely to be a sustainable leader; it is still priced not far from all-time highs. This is not a great starting point. Further, we do not believe that Tech will be immune to any potential earnings disappointments in a downturn, in contrast to the past decade. Valuation differential remains clear, with US trading at 18x questionable earnings, compared to Eurozone and Japan at 12-13x, and FTSE100 at 11x. Eurozone is trading at a bigger discount than typical vs the US, even when adjusting for the different sector composition. On margin, China reopening and lower gas prices favour Europe, while politics could be a problem for the US this year, especially with respect to the debt ceiling. We are certainly not calling for a decoupling. Having said that, it is notable that in the 1970s there were long periods when European markets performed much better than the US, even when the US was down materially. In our regional allocation, we held OW on Europe vs US through the last 12 months, with the preference for FTSE100 within Europe. We keep this regional bias, for now, despite the 25% relative outperformance of Eurozone since September, in USD terms. There might be a time coming up to take profits on Europe vs US trade, perhaps closer to the China reopening getting more fully priced it, but we do not advocate it just yet. This podcast was recorded on 12 February 2023. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4331948-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
All into Account: Cross Asset Strategy - Catching up with Alternative Investment Outlook & Strategy team
- Helped by resilient fundraising and smoother valuations, the reported AUM of the universe of Alternative Investments (AI) likely ended 2022 only modestly lower from 2021 despite last year’s correction in asset prices. While the valuation gap between private and public markets remains, the gap has narrowed significantly in recent months reducing a previous headwind for private assets. New loans in the private credit market are being originated at much wider spreads, around 200bp wide of public market pricing. We thus upgrade private credit to overweight within alternatives along with hedge funds. We downgrade digital assets given the drying up of crypto VC funding. Speakers: Thomas Salopek, Global Cross Asset Strategy Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou – Global Markets Strategy Nelson Jantzen - US High Yield & Leveraged Loan Strategy Mika Inkinen - Global Markets Strategy Federico Manicardi - Cross-Asset Fundamental Strategy Nishant Poddar – Global Markets Strategy This podcast was recorded on date. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325496-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
All into Account: ‘How and when does the Equity market rally end?’ with Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equities Research, and Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Research
- The stock rally that started in the Fall of 2022 benefited from very low positioning and peak bearishness. Now positioning is no longer stretched and sentiment assumes a relatively pain-free soft landing. The rates moves are already well priced into stocks, and with the VIX at ~18 indicating complacency, stocks can be prone to a stress event this quarter, with weak earnings and geopolitics possible drivers. Speakers Thomas Salopek, Head of Global Cross Asset Strategy Mislav Matejka, Head of Global Equities Strategy Jason Hunter, Head of Technical Strategy This podcast was recorded on Jan. 7, 20232. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at www.jpmm.com/resehttps://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325942-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325446-0.pdf, and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4325211-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. ? 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Tight labor markets, or tight budgets?'
- The Federal Reserve minutes were anxious about the tightness of the labor market. The financial markets were anxious about the Fed’s anxiety. The weird thing is that US real wages have been breaking all records—and not in a good way. The year-over-year rate of real wage growth has been negative for 22 consecutive months. With such a collapse in living standards, the Fed’s relative focus on labor-led rather than profit-led inflation seems peculiar.
Top of the Morning: Sustainable InSIghts - Quarterly update
- Our conversation touches on the burning questions on the minds of investors when it comes to sustainable investing, including ‘Is ESG over?’. We also outline how the US and China are working independently on renewable energy solutions and where opportunity might exist for collaboration. Plus, guidance on how investors should approach a sustainable allocation within their portfolio. Featured is Amantia Muhedini, Sustainable and Impact Investing Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Getting into the inflation detail'
- The minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting (which raised rates by 0.25 percentage points) will be closely examined for any possible hint as to future policy direction. We know that the Fed is data dependent, but the question is what data? And does the Fed really trust the numbers?
Top of the Morning: CIO Strategy Snapshot - Turbulence
- Our conversation focuses on the current macro environment, including the prospects for a ‘no landing’ scenario, and what that might entail for the markets. We also touch on the latest portfolio positioning guidance from the UBS Chief Investment Office against a backdrop of macro uncertainty. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy
Engineering the Future: Respecting the past, celebrating the present and inspiring the future
- As part of UBS’s focus on making technology our differentiator and building a bank for the future, we have launched our new technology spotlight, Engineering the Future. Featuring interviews and discussions with a range of experts and collaborators from UBS and beyond, join us as we explore how the future of finance is increasingly being disrupted by technology. Our second episode features a conversation with Mike Dargan, Chief Digital and Information Officer at UBS, who discusses all things agile, recruitment and life at UBS, and his vision for the future. Visit our website, UBS.com/DigitalNext for more information about the podcast.
UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Does trade signal better demand?'
- The data calendar is noisy with business sentiment opinion polls. In Europe, these have tended to bounce back in recent months as the media narrative about the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine has improved. The underlying economic data has tended to be less volatile.