The latest IPCC Report: what we see is only the beginning. What we do can reframe the trajectory.

“The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. Any further delay in concerted anticipatory global action on adaptation and mitigation will miss a brief and rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.” (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.C.5)?

The most recent IPCC report, AR6, WGII, Climate change 2022: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability, describes the intensifying impacts of climate change and future risks it poses on ecosystems and human societies. The report details the effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation options, while evaluating the vulnerabilities of ecosystems and people.

There are three versions of the IPCC report you can review. We recommend reading the Summary for Policy Makers before or after reading this article.?

• Summary for Policymakers (SPM, 37 pages)?
• Technical summary (TS, 96 pages)?
• Complete report (3,675 pages)

At Pangolin Associates, we advise our clients on how they can decarbonise their business in line with the most up to date climate science. As such, we understand the importance of communicating the results of the IPCC reports in an accessible and digestible manner. This article both summarises the new AR6 report and provides insight into how your businesses should respond to the climate crisis. Some sections of the IPCC Report are directly quoted, while other sections are interpretations made by the authors of this article.?

1. We cannot ensure human health and well-being without a healthy planet and healthy ecosystems?

This report focuses on interactions between coupled climatic systems, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies- which are the basis of emerging risks and opportunities for the future. It is important to recognize the impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed across ecosystems or communities. The frequency and severity of impacts vary geographically and temporally. The figure below summarises this first key concept and underpins the rest of the report. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.A)?

Figure 1. Interactions among the coupled systems climate, ecosystems (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.1)?

Observed impacts: this is only the beginning?

On average, human-led climate change has warmed the Earth by 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels and over 1.4°C in Australia. This temperature increase is already causing environmental disruption throughout Australasia and around the world.?

Extreme weather events are happening more frequently and intensely every year. Drought due to changing rainfall patterns; new extreme temperature records; increased severity, and frequency of floods; a longer and more destructive bushfire season as well as marine submersion events in low lying islands are all present as seen in?Figure 2.?

Figure 2 Number of loss events from due to environmental events (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk)?

The increased frequency and intensity of these events deteriorates our ecosystem’s structure, function, resilience, and natural adaptive capacity, which leads to adverse socioeconomic consequences. On average since 2008, devastating weather-related extreme events (floods and storms the most common drivers) have forced more than 20 million people from their homes each year. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, TS.B.2.4)?

Human societies are highly vulnerable to climate change. Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people live in countries highly vulnerable to climate impacts with global hotspots concentrated in Small Island Developing States, the Arctic, South Asia, Central and South America, and much of sub-Saharan Africa? (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.B.2). Vulnerability is higher in locations with poverty, political instability, limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods.?

This report acknowledges what Australians have lived through in the recent years and even recent weeks: longer droughts reducing agricultural yield and pressuring dwindling freshwater resources; intense and destructive bushfires killing and displacing the already threatened local communities and biodiversity; unprecedented rainfall across New South Wales and South-East Queensland. Australia also recorded severe flood events, stronger cyclones, and the bleaching of the coral reefs and loss of kelp forests. This report makes it clear, this is only the beginning.

Projected risks (2021-2040)?

Due to inadequate global action, the Earth is heading towards catastrophic warming of over 2°C (even a warming of over 3°C if all countries follow Australia’s path). This is far beyond what human societies and natural ecosystems can adapt to.?

Any changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millennia, especially changes in the ocean, ice sheets and global sea level. In the longer term, sea level is predicted to rise for centuries to millennia, due to continuing deep ocean warming and ice sheet melt, which will remain elevated for thousands of years. (IPCC, AR6, WGI, SPM B.5).?

Global warming will threaten food and water security, as well as increase the incidence of heat-related mortality, heart disease and mental health challenges. Species and ecosystems will suffer even more, which could accelerate climate change. For example, remaining mangroves could fail to counteract sea level rise, sea-ice dependent species will decline, and mass forest dieback will start, which would turn critical carbon sinks into carbon sources.?

Projected risks (2041-2100)?

The report identified and assessed 127 key risks for mid- to long-term impacts and found impacts will be significantly higher than currently observed. Every tenth of a degree of additional warming adds threats to people, species, and ecosystems. The warmer it gets, the less chance we have to adapt and avoid reaching critical tipping points.?

The proportion of our global population potentially exposed to a once in a 100-year coastal flood is projected to increase by ~20% by 2100 if global mean sea level rises by 0.15 m relative to 2020 levels. The number of people at risk doubles at a 0.75 m rise in mean sea level and triples at 1.4 m. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.B.4.5)?

2. Current adaptation measures are not sufficient: future adaptation is crucial?

Most observed adaptation is fragmented and small in scale. It is incremental, sector-specific, designed to respond to current impacts or near-term risks, and focused more on planning rather than implementation. Lack of climate literacy at all levels and limited availability of information and data pose further constraints to adaptation planning and implementation. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.C.1)?

In this report, it is estimated that annual adaptation costs will reach $127 billion by 2030 and $295 billion by 2050 for developing countries. However, adaptation accounts for just 4-8% of tracked climate finance, which totalled $579 billion in 2017-18. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, TS.D.10.2)?

Climate adaptation options exist and can reduce risks for humans, biodiversity, and ecosystems. Feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation increase for integrated and multi-sectoral solutions addressing social inequities. Actions that focus on sectors and risks in isolation and on short-term gains often lead to maladaptation, especially if long-term impacts of the adaptation option and long-term adaptation commitment are not considered. Efficient climate change adaptation approaches need to mix social programs to improve equity and justice. Ecosystem-based adaptation integrating Indigenous and local communities along with new technologies and infrastructure is essential. (IPCC, AR6, WGII, SPM.C.5)?

3. A rapidly closing opportunity?

There is an urgent need for climate resilient development action, which focuses on both where people and ecosystems are co-located as well as the protection and maintenance of ecosystem function at the planetary scale. Climate resilient pathways integrate mitigation and adaptation actions to advance sustainable development but are progressively constrained by every increment of warming. Solutions integrating equity and social and climate justice will leverage climate resilient development, while reducing risks. The safeguard of biodiversity and ecosystems is fundamental with recent analyses suggesting the minimum conservation of approximately 30% to 50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean areas, including currently near-natural ecosystems, to maintain ecosystem services resilience.?

4. What should you do with your business??

There is no alternative. Everyone from individuals to governments, civil society and the private sector must step up.??

By cutting greenhouse gas emissions in this decade, we can avoid the worst impacts of climate change, which would protect and save lives, livelihoods, species, and ecosystems. The benefits would be acknowledged within our lifetimes, but more so, within the lifetimes of our kids and grandkids.?

No one has more to lose than what has already been lost, but everyone could benefit from a socially just, culturally rich, and ecologically restorative society.??

Increase the climate literacy of your employees?

Climate literacy training is key to fully understanding the problem and take meaningful action. The lack of climate literacy at all levels poses further constraints to adaptation planning and implementation.??

The following resources will help you get started:?

• Organise a Climate 101 lunch and learn or a Climate Fresk Game- a gamified system and collaborative workshop which provides an overview of climate change and what is at stake (more details here)?
• Share the Climate Council Resources?
• Take a look at the Project Drawdown Climate Solutions Course and make every job a climate job by following Climate Solutions at work Guide?

“You can't manage what you don't measure”?

Understanding the emissions that your company is responsible for and the sources of those emissions is part of the journey. For organisations, the most accurate way is to measure by undertaking a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory, commonly known as a carbon footprint. The inventory includes scopes 1 (on-site), scope 2 (energy) and scope 3 (supply chain) emissions to be complete and to follow the GHG Protocol.?

Once an organisation understands its carbon footprint, it can work on reducing its carbon footprint from existing levels. Then, it should enact strong net-zero policies with firm deadlines and by covering long-term targets with medium-term objectives and measurable actions.?

Making a long-term commitment to reach net zero emissions requires a shift from incremental change to a long-term planned approach which recognises the scale of change required.?

Drive systemic change outside of your organization?

Request action from the decision makers and stakeholders. Send an evidence-based and compelling message to key decision makers and stakeholders. Ask for meaningful change including:?

• Moving away from fossil fuels?
• Switching to 100% renewable electricity?
• Improving and investing in energy efficiencies?
• Reviewing your supply network and encouraging supply chain partners to review and reduce their own emissions?
• Ensuring that your financial institutions are making the right choices, e.g., not investing in fossil fuel projects?

Use your voice and hold Governments to account?

Once you understand the climate crisis and how you can be part of the solution, use your voice. Demand meaningful action from all levels of Government and go further. We must expand the dialogue beyond emissions to incorporate intergenerational equity, human rights, gender equality, and cultural integrity. If we do this as a society, we can mitigate climate change and eliminate climate injustice challenges.?

This latest IPCC report confirms (again) that the climate crisis is accelerating and will impact everyone, from human societies to biodiversity and ecosystems. But it also explains the importance of rapidly and collectively reducing GHG emissions and implementing durable adaptation plans to face increasing climate risks. Individuals, governments, civil society, and the private sector have a role to play to ensure a livable and sustainable future for all.?

“If not us, then who? If not now, then when?”?

-John Lewis?

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Author: Mylene Turban, Duncan Redden?

Reviewer: Morna McGuire, Chris Wilson, Clare De Silva