Latest Election Betting and Models Charts
Kalshi betting, which is largely US bettors.
Polymarket betting consists of foreign bettors (and US bettors with a VPN).
Our elections are 50-state winner-take-all elections.
Betting markets have wagering on all 50 states.
Kalshi state betting
Polymarket state betting.
It's identical to the Kalshi map above.
The betting that the Democrats hold their majority in the Senate is only 20%.
The betting that the Democrats will take the House majority is 50/50.
The three most watched election models.
They are all effectively 50/50.
Puppeteer
2 周What’s the market on Scottish independence? Scotland ?????????????? Forever ??
Student at The University of Texas at Austin
3 周Having a "direct" line of financial forecasting for the election is so interesting. Although market baskets exist, having actual contracts out is crazy. Saw some material about how these contracts will be settled! Will be super curious to see if the results are conflicted on how these contracts turnout.