LAST WEEK MARKET COMMENT

Good morning, Farmer Family ...

US farm markets?rose sharply last Friday, on increasing concerns that Russia may not renew the Black Sea grain deal set to expire on May 18, after a fist fight broke out during latest negotiations.

These worries sparked another round of buying, which saw wheat prices capturing double digit gains.

Thus, Chicago SRW added 2.36%, Kansas City HRW climbed 4.35%, and MGEX HRS rose 2.96%.

Corn prices also continued to shift higher, up 1.27%, as tensions between Russia and Ukraine.?

Soybeans fared even better, up 1.32%, with soymeal finding modest gains of around 0.35%, while soyoil jumped 3.53% higher.

Spillover support from other commodities and stock markets, indeed, lent additional support.

Russia has said it will not extend the Black Sea pact beyond May 18 unless its list of demands over its food and fertilizer exports is met.

Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations failed to reach an agreement to authorize any new vessels to carry out Black Sea grain exports on Friday, deputy U.N. spokesperson Farhan Haq said.

Thus, hopes for the renewal of Ukraine Grain Deal were dimmed, with the pace of grain shipments from Ukraine under the being initiative has slowed, as concerns grow over potential ships getting stuck if the deal would not renewed.

As a result, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) gained 15-1/4 cents to settle at $6.60-1/4 a bushel during the end week session, after dipping past week to the lowest since April 2021.

Corn ended 7-1/2 cents higher at $5.96-1/2 a bushel, after sinking to its lowest since July 25, 2022, past Wednesday.

Soybeans settled up 18-3/4 cents at $14.36-1/2 a bushel, after touching a low not seen since October earlier past week.

For the week, wheat and corn prices made their first weekly gains in three weeks.?

Notably, the wheat complex saw a nice rally, with Kansas City the bull leader this time, up 7.31% taking out all of last week’s losses.?

Chicago was up 4.18% since the prior Friday.?

MPLS ended their slide, up 4.01%.

Corn prices clawed back a portion of the prior week’s collapse, with July up 1.97%.

Soybeans joined the bull crowd, with July up 1.22% since the prior Friday.?

July soy meal was the weak spot of the complex, down 1.46% for the week, while July bean oil was up 5.15%, from Friday to Friday.

Crop Progress report showed past Monday the US corn crop was 26% planted in the week of 4/30, in line with the average pace.

Meanwhile, data showed a continued speedy soybean planting pace, at 19% complete vs the 9% average.?

Spring wheat crop planting pace, in contrast, continued to be delayed, with just 12% planted by 4/30, compared to the 22% average.

Crop Progress report also had the winter wheat crop at 25% headed, vs. the 23% average pace.?

Crop ratings were up 2% at 28% gd/ex.

Grain Crush monthly report pegged March corn grind for ethanol at 437.9 mbu, a 3.38% reduction from last year.?

NASS showed March bean crush at 197.9 mbu, a record for the month and the second largest all time.?

On Wednesday, the weekly EIA report showed ethanol production up slightly in the week of April 28 to 976,000 barrels per day.?

Stocks dropped another sharp 943,000 barrels to 23.363 million, taking the 2-week draw to 1.93 million barrels.?

Thursday’s Export Sales report indicated old crop corn bookings falling to a net reduction of 315,600 MT, most of which was known via daily sales announcements to China.?

Old crop corn export commitments slipped back to 81% of the current USDA forecast.?

The normal 5-year average pace is to be 94% sold by this date.?

As for soybean, the report showed bean bookings slipping back to 279,700 MT in the week that ended on April 27.?

Commitments are now 92% of USDA’s forecast total, still within reaching distance of the 5-year average pace at 97%.

As for wheat, the report showed bookings at 211,100 MT for old crop, with new crop sales at 279,700 MT.?

That put total wheat 22/23 export commitments at 18.997 MMT as of 4/27.?

That was still 3% below a year ago and 90% of the USDA full year export projection, vs. the 105% average pace.?

Also on Thursday, monthly Census data showed 4.921 MMT of corn was shipped in March.?

That was a 50% increase from Feb exports though down 34% from the same month last year.?

The season’s total 22.19 MMT was at 42.1% of the April WASDE forecast.?

The monthly data also showed exports of ethanol and DDGS were 132.27m gallons and 898k MT respectively in March.

The monthly release from Census confirmed 3.14 MMT of soybeans were shipped during March which brought the full year total to 46.95 MMT.?

That was 86% of the USDA forecast.?

March meal export shipments were 1.336 MMT, a 44% increase from Feb and a 23% increase from March ’22.?

Census confirmed 5,087 MT of bean oil exports in March.?

The full year total reached 61.4k MT, or just 27% of the April WASDE forecast.?

As for wheat, monthly data from Census showed for wheat a flat 0.136 MMT March export.?

That was down 0.51 MMT from February and was 0.35 MMT lower yr/yr.?

That set the YTD exports at 17.99 MMT, or 85.2% of the April WASDE’s forecast with April and May remaining.??

Finally, always on Thursday, the 2023 Oklahoma Wheat Crop Tour estimated the Oklahoma harvested area at 2.2 million acres (0.89 hectares) and total production at 54.3 million bushels (1.5 MMT), down 21% from last year.?

Meanwhile, Oklahoma Grain and Feed Association members pegged wheat production at 40.7 million bushels (1.1 MMT).?

Oklahoma is one of the HRW-producing states in the U.S. Southern Plains impacted by severe drought, though these estimates are not final.?

The Kansas Wheat Tour will be May 15th through May 18.

However, in the USA there are a lot of other issues with lack of selling by the producers because it's planting season.

There is the debt ceiling concern, and there is a crop report that's going to come out on Friday, expected to be negative.

Thus, markets are looking forward to the U.S. crop condition report out this afternoon, deficit negotiations in Washington is scheduled for tomorrow, and the monthly WASDE report due on May 12.

In this context, corn basis bids were steady to mixed across the central U.S. after trending as much as 15 cents lower at an Illinois ethanol plant and as much as 3 cents higher at a Nebraska processor on Friday.

Soybean basis bids held steady across the central U.S..

As for wheat, basis ended the week mixed across wheat classes.?

HRS basis was steady in the Gulf and the Pacific Northwest (PNW).?

Meanwhile, HRW in the Gulf and PNW were drawn down by continued slow demand.?

SRW basis remained steady, supported by domestic demand, while soft white prices increased as it repositioned to fall in line with the market.?

After the sessions close, Weekly Commitment of Traders data showed large speculators?increased?their net short position in Chicago Board of Trade corn futures in the week ended May 2.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly commitments of traders report also showed that non-commercial traders, a category that includes hedge funds, increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans.

On this morning, Chicago wheat gained more ground, to trade near a two-week high as slowing grain exports from Ukraine amid uncertainty over the extension of the Black Sea export deal underpinned prices.

Corn and soybeans firmed.

Notably, the most-active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)?was up 0.1% at $6.61 a bushel, not far from a two-week high of $6.64 a bushel scaled in the previous session.

Corn?added 0.2% to $5.97-1/2 a bushel and soybeans?gained 0.1% to 14.37-3/4 a bushel.

The weather forecast looks a bit bearish, but the market is extremely oversold and Russia is still not satisfied how the Russian agriculture exports are represented in the Black Sea grain deal.

In energy markets, oil prices rose on Friday but fell for the third straight week after a sharp fall earlier the week.

Benchmark interest rates rose and with these, also concerns that the U.S. banking crisis will slow the economy and sap fuel demand.

In China, factory activity contracted unexpectedly in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector.

Thus, the Brent benchmark finished the week with a decline of about 5.3%, while WTI plunged 7.1%.?

Both benchmarks were down for three weeks in a row for the first time since November.

However, Brent crude closed $2.80, or 3.9% higher on Friday, at $75.30 a barrel.?

U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled up $2.78, or 4.1%, at $71.34 after four days of declines that sent the contract to lows last seen in late 2021.

Commerzbank analysts noted oil demand concerns were overblown and expect a price correction upward in coming weeks.

A better-than-expected jobs report helped ease some fears of an imminent economic downturn, spurred in part by renewed banking fears.?

Investors also broadly expect the Fed to pause rate hikes at its June policy meeting.

Additionally, expectations of potential supply cuts at the next meeting of the OPEC+ in June have provided some price support.

Finally, U.S. oil rig count, an indicator of future output, fell by 3 to 588 this week, data from oil services firm Baker Hughes showed.

On this morning, oil prices rose, as fears of a recession in the U.S., which drove prices down for three straight weeks for the first time since November, started receding.

Notably, Brent crude futures were up 43 cents, or 0.6%, at $75.73 a barrel at 06:24 GMT.?

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 45 cents, also 0.6%, at $71.79 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note on Saturday that concerns over near-term demand due to stress in the U.S. banking system and an industrial slowdown, and elevated global supply due to limited compliance with OPEC+ cuts were "overblown".

The United States is expected to report consumer price inflation figures for April on Wednesday, which could provide further clues on interest rate moves amid broad expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will pause rate hikes.

Traders this week will also keenly watch Chinese economic indicators including trade, inflation, lending and money supply figures for April, as market participants continue to gauge economic recovery in the world's second largest oil consumer.

In ocean freight markets,?the Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, edged up on Friday on stronger demand in the capesize segment, but marked its first weekly decline in three.

The overall index, indeed, added 13 points, or 0.8%, to 1,558, but was down 1.1% for the week.

Notably, the capesize index rose 59 points, or 2.5%, to 2,384.?

The index gained 3.6% for the week, its third straight weekly rise.

Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, increased $485 to $19,768.

The panamax index dropped 13 points, or 0.9%, to 1,501.

The index was headed for its fourth straight weekly decline and was down 5.4% during the week.

Average daily earnings for panamaxes, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, decreased $118 to $13,512.

Among smaller vessels, the supramax index fell 9 points to 1,096.

In equity markets, US stock indexes rallied sharply, as a sharp rebound in regional bank stocks, eased concerns about the banking sector.

PacWest Bancorp rallied 81.7% and Western Alliance Bancorp jumped 49.2%, while the KBW regional bank index advanced 4.7%.?

Also, strong quarterly earnings results from Apple boosted market sentiment and gave the overall market a lift.???

The iPhone maker's shares hit their highest level in about nine months, and the stock ended up 4.7% in its biggest daily percentage gain since November.

U.S. Apr nonfarm payrolls rose +253,000, stronger than expectations of +185,000.??

Also, the Apr unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to a 54-year low of 3.4%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 3.6%.??

U.S. Apr average hourly earnings rose +0.5% m/m and +4.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +4.2% y/y.

U.S. Mar consumer credit rose +$26.514 billion, stronger than expectations of +$17.000 billion and the largest increase in 4 months.

These reports were hawkish for Fed policy, surely.

However, the strength in the U.S. labor market is bolstering optimism that tighter Fed policy may achieve a soft landing and not push the U.S. economy into recession.

U.S. stocks, indeed, rallied Friday despite a jump in bond yields from the stronger-than-expected U.S. Apr payroll report.??

Notably, benchmark 10-year notes were up 7.9 basis points to 3.431%, from 3.352% late on Thursday.?

The 30-year bond was last up 2.4 basis points to yield 3.7464%.?

The 2-year note was last was up 18.7 basis points to yield 3.9139%.

The U.S. debt ceiling impasse has been a bearish factor for stocks.?

Bipartisan Congressional leaders are scheduled to meet with President Biden on Tuesday, May 9, to discuss whether there is a way to move forward on the debt ceiling.

In this context, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 546.64 points, or 1.65%, to 33,674.38, the S&P 500 gained 75.03 points, or 1.85%, to 4,136.25 and the Nasdaq Composite added 269.02 points, or 2.25%, to 12,235.41.

The Dow and S&P 500 still registered losses for the week, however, while the Nasdaq ended with a slight gain for the week.

On this morning, Asian shares were mostly higher after the widespread rally on Wall Street.

Tokyo’s benchmark fell as markets reopened after several days of holidays, while markets in China advanced.?

Notably, in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 shed 0.6% to 28,981.63.

Reopening after a weeklong holiday, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index added 0.7% to 20,195.37 and the Shanghai Composite index surged 1.7% to 3,392.26.?

South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.6% to 2,514.58, while the S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.7% in Sydney to 7,271.60.

In currencies,?the dollar index fell by -0.18%, as the sharp rally in stocks curbed liquidity demand for the dollar.??

Also, strength in GBP/USD Friday weighed on the dollar after the British pound rallied to an 11-month high.??

The dollar Friday initially moved higher as the better-than-expected U.S. Apr payroll report may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer.?

The EUR/USD on Friday rose by +0.12% recovering from early losses.??

Hawkish comments Friday from ECB Governing Council member Muller were bullish for the euro when he said Thursday's interest rate hike by the ECB won't be the last.??

The EUR/USD initially had moved lower on weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news that showed Eurozone Mar retail sales falling more than expected, and German Mar factory orders posted their biggest decline in nearly three years.?

The USD/JPY rose by +0.37%, with the yen under pressure after the stronger-than-expected U.S. Apr payrolls report pushed T-note yields higher.??

Trading activity in the yen was muted, however, with Japanese markets closed Friday for the Children’s Day holiday.

On this morning, the dollar slipped to 134.75 Japanese yen from 134.88 yen.

The euro rose to $1.1043 from $1.1023.

Analyzing the other agricultural markets ...

From Canada,?agriculture exports rose to 37m mt, up 62% y-o-y.

Lentil exports at 1.543 million metric tons shipped, 2022-23 exports are up 62.8% from one year ago and are 20.5% above the five-year average.

Cumulative shipments have achieved 67% of the current AAFC forecast, equal to the steady pace needed to reach the current 2.3 mmt forecast.

Dry pea cumulative exports of 1.943 mmt are up 45.4% from last year while 5.7% below the five-year average for this period.

AAFC's dry pea export forecast was revised 100,000 mt higher in April to 2.6 mmt, while the cumulative volume has achieved 75% of this forecast and is ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast which points to a modest increase in stocks year-over-year.

Chickpea?cumulative exports of 162,402 mt are up 99% from one year ago while 86.7% above the five-year average.

AAFC increased their forecast for 2022-23 exports by 25,000 mt in April to 225,000 mt, with current exports reaching 72% of this forecast and are well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach this forecast.

Soybeans cumulative exports of 3.733 mmt are up 8.4% from last year and 6.3% higher than the five-year average.

Cumulative exports have achieved 78.3% of forecast exports, while well-ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current 4.4 mmt export forecast.

Corn cumulative exports of 1.048 mmt are up 33.1% from last year and 75.5% higher than the five-year average for this period.

Cumulative exports account for 57% of the current 1.850 mmt export forecast, which was revised 100,000 mt higher in April.

This is very close to the pace needed to reach this forecast.

Canola cumulative volumes shipped are seen at 2.146 mmt, up 26% from the same period last year and 3.3% higher than the three-year average.

Canola cumulative exports of 3.636 mmt are up 22.2% from one year ago and 12% higher than the five-year average.

Meantime, the Grain Statistics weekly report past week showed producers’ deliveries of common wheat at 275,4k mt for the week 39 of this shipping season.

That was up from 266,5k mt posted prior week.

Deliveries of durum wheat, were also higher at 44,9k mt, compared with 39,8k mt showed in prior week.

Canada exported 572,9k mt of common wheat in week 39.

That was up from 499,1k mt of a week earlier.

Durum wheat exports, were also higher, moving up from 185,1k mt to 194.8k mt.

However, total Commercial Stocks of common wheat stood at 2.429.7k mt.

That was down from 2.753.3k mt posted in week 38.

Total durum commercial stocks, were also weaker, moving down from 479,8k mt a week earlier, to 397k mt.

Cumulative exports for common wheat were at 15.341,6k mt.

That is compared 8.517,1k mt a year ago.

Durum cumulative exports reached 4.234,1k mt vs 1.909,7 a year ago.

Meantime, cash bids for Canadian durum wheat fell week over week, with the average regional price at C$418.19/mt as of May 6.

That was a C$16.41/mt decrese from the prior week.

From South America, Brazil’s Anec only expects the country’s corn exports to reach 325.120t in May, which would be noticeably below year-ago totals of 1.09 MMT, if realized.

Brazil’s Anec anticipates the country’s soybean exports will reach 12.08 MMT in May, which would be moderately higher year-over-year, if realized.?

Anec also expects to see Brazilian soymeal exports reach 2.2 million metric tons this month.

Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul cut soybean production, while corn was?unchanged.

However, Brazil’s historical storage deficit and bumper grain crop this season, are pressuring soy and corn premiums, according to some agribusiness consultancy.

Notably, Brazil’s negative corn premiums may result in losses of 11.5 billion reais ($2.30 billion) this year for the sector while losses for the soybean industry are estimated at 19 billion reais ($3.80 billion).

Argentina's soybean harvest reached 36%, while corn was at 20%, according to BAGE.

In Europe,?the condition of French soft wheat edged lower in the week to May 1, while sowing of grain maize continued to run well below average, farm office FranceAgriMer said on Friday.

An estimated 93% of soft wheat was rated good or excellent, down from 94% the previous week but above the 89% registered a year earlier, FranceAgriMer said in a cereal crop report.?

Sowing of grain maize was 59% complete compared with 44% the previous week, FranceAgriMer said.?

That was below year-earlier progress of 81% and an average 75% for the past five years.

For winter barley, 92% of the crop was rated good or excellent, up from 91% the previous week and 86% a year earlier.?

The spring barley rating was unchanged at 94% and above the 88% at the same point in 2022.

For durum wheat, the rating fell to 88% from 89% the previous week, still well above the 83% recorded a year earlier.?

Meantime, Germany wheat, was assessed at €7.50/mt premium to September.

From North Africa,?Tunisia's ODC bought 100kmt of durum in tender for average $384.82/mt.

Tunisia's ODC also bought 75k mt of barley at average $256.30/mt.

In Egypt, local government has purchased 1.2 million ton of wheat from local farmers in this season since mid-April 2023, according to a report filed to Minister of Supply Ali Al Meselhi on Saturday.

The wheat quality of this season is superior.

The the rates of supply increased this year, compared to last year at the same time.

The payment takes place 48 hours after the supply.

In April 2023, the Egyptian Ministry of Finance had allocated 45 billion EGP to purchase local wheat from farmers this year, with an increase of more than 19 billion EGP compared to the last year.

The government has started to buy the local wheat from the beginning of this April and will continue to the mid-August, with an additional cost to increase the price of one ardab (150 kilograms) by 74% from 865 EGP to 1,500 EGP, Maait added.

The increase in the wheat purchase price came with the implementation of the presidential directives to support farmers and encourage them to expand the cultivation of strategic crops like wheat, in a way that contributes to achieving self-sufficiency.

The government is targeting to increase the area of the wheat crops by 1.5 million feddans over the few coming years.

Hussein Abdul Rahman Abu Saddam, Head of the General Syndicate of Farmers, said in a statement that the authorities aim to purchase a total of 4 million tons of wheat from the local farmers.

He added that the supply of wheat will continued until the end of next September, and about 50% of the cultivated areas have been harvested so far, while about 25% of the harvested quantities have been threshed.

From Levant, the Joint Coordination Centre in Ankara, did not reach an agreement on Friday to authorise new vessels to participate in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Farhan Haq, a spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said at a daily press briefing.?

He said JCC was continuing its daily inspection work on previously authorised vessels.?

From Ukraine,?Ukraine’s grain exports during the 2022/23 marketing year are trending around 8% lower year-over-year so far.?

While Ukraine's weekly grain export pace 23% was down, as only 1.1 m mt were declared.

The pace of shipments from Ukraine via the Black Sea Grain Initiative has slowed amid concerns shipments could be stalled if a deal is not renewed.

Notably, the number of ships coming in to pick up cargoes dropped last week to two vessels per day from an average of three to four ships.?

Danish shipping group NORDEN is among companies not sending ships into the region.?

“We are not participating in that trade at the moment… It is a risky area – it is very hard to predict what will happen,” NORDEN’s Chief Executive Jan Rindbo told Reuters.?

There are currently 107 forward grain orders for ships in the market, with 94 for May and only a few orders for the forward months, Shipfix data showed.?

Insurance for ships going into the grain corridor has remained stable for now.?

From Russia,?Russian govt lowered wheat, corn tariff, while moved it up for barley.

Meantime, Russia is?still not satisfied?with how the issue of Russian agricultural exports as part of the Black Sea grain deal is being resolved, TASS news agency quoted Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin as saying on Saturday after the latest talks with a top U.N. official.

President Putin has not yet responded to proposals from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian newsagency TASS reported, quoting Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

From the Middle East, Iran has reported a considerable increase in its purchases of domestically-grown wheat in the 37 days to May 3.

CEO of Government Trading Corporation (GTC) of Iran Saeid Raad said on Saturday that wheat purchases in seven provinces with warm climate in south and southeastern Iran had reached some 1 million metric tons (mt) in more than a month to early April.

Raad said the figure is an increase of 32% compared to the same period in 2022, Press TV reported.

Authorities in the GTC, which is a subsidiary of Iran’s agriculture ministry, expect domestic wheat purchases in the country could increase by 13% to 8.5 million mt this year.

From Australia, Aussie wheat export hits new record in March, with rare vessel left to Turkey.

Notably, ABS data showed that Australia exported a record 3.78Mt of wheat in March easily beating the previous monthly record of 3.25Mt set in January.

China took 1.13Mt, Vietnam 387kt and Indonesia took 330kt.?

Meantime, most local markets closed?Friday slightly higher.

It was a good recovery after some flat price pressure from the $A rally mid-week.

A lack of liquidity continues to be the theme, particularly through NSW.

Meantime, the 8-day forecast is looking relatively dry, with less than 5mm on the radar for most winter cropping regions, after some decent totals were received last week across parts of WA, SA, Vic and southern NSW.

FAO Food Price Index - May Update

The United Nations food agency's world price index rose in April for the first time in a year, but is still some 20% down on a record high hit in March 2022 following the start of the war in Ukraine.?

Notably, the FAO price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 127.2 points last month against 126.5 for March, the agency said on Friday.?

The March reading was originally given as 126.9.

The Rome-based agency said the April rise reflected higher prices for sugar, meat and rice, which offset declines in the cereals, dairy and vegetable oil price indices.

Notably, the sugar price index surged 17.6% from March, hitting its highest level since October 2011.

While the meat index rose 1.3% month-on-month, dairy prices dipped 1.7%, vegetable oil prices fell 1.3% and the cereal price index shed 1.7%, with a decline in world prices of all major grains outweighing an increase in rice prices.

FAO S&D - May Update

In a separate report on cereals supply and demand, the FAO said drought in Spain and Portugal is curbing crops.

Turkey’s wheat crop outlook was cut “moderately” because of earthquake damage to infrastructure and equipment.

Drought is also impacting yields in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia expect?below average harvests.

Pakistan’s wheat crop was downgraded “marginally” on constrained access to farm inputs.?

However, the FAO forecasted world wheat production in 2023 at 785 million tonnes.

That is slightly below 2022 levels but nonetheless the second largest outturn on record.

Meantime, old crop ending stocks were at 309.7, the FAO said.?

Notably, the FAO expects the 2023/24 wheat crop at 139.5 MMT for the EU – citing April rains.?

They also expects 22/23 corn carryout will be 288.2 MMT, looser than the 285.4 MMT estimate last month citing better harvests in EU and India than expected.?

FAO raised its forecast for world cereal production in 2022 to 2.785 billion tonnes from a previous 2.777 billion, just 1.0% down from the previous year.

World cereal utilisation in the 2022/23 period was seen at 2.780 billion tonnes, FAO said, down 0.7% from 2021/22.?

World cereal stocks by the close of the 2022/2023 seasons are expected to ease by 0.2% from their opening levels to 855 million tonnes.

Watching this week's market

Monday starts off with the weekly Export Inspections report and the weekly NASS release of the Crop Progress report overnight.

Fast forward to Wednesday and EIA will publish their weekly ethanol production and stocks report, with April CPI data out as well.

The weekly Export Sales report will be released on Thursday afternoon, with PPI data also published on Thursday.

We will get our first look at the US and world balance sheets for 2023/24 in Friday’s WASDE release.?

That’s all, thank you.

We wish you a nice day and a good start to the week.

?Author:?Sandro F. Puglisi

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