'Last mile' attribution for FMCG brands: A counterpoint to incrementality testing and Mixed Media Modelling

Earlier this week, ITV, Channel4 and Sky announced a joint venture, called Lantern, to launch a collaborative TV measurement panel with the intention to provide in-depth insights on campaigns that wouldn’t ordinarily be attributed to the channel performance.

In the evolving landscape of advertising, incrementality testing and Mixed Media Modelling (MMM) have become popular approaches to measuring TV marketing performance and further adopted in the world of programmatic advertising, where measurement has previously been predicated on the existence of the 3rd party cookie through the use of post-view performance metrics.

Incrementality testing aims to isolate the impact of specific campaigns, while MMM takes a more holistic view by evaluating how different media channels interact to drive sales outcomes over time. While these methods offer valuable insights, both have limitations, particularly for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands, where in-store purchases remain dominant.

FMCG brands often find that incrementality testing and MMM fall short in capturing the full shopper journey, especially in environments where retail media solutions do not provide deterministic, one-to-one links between media engagement and purchase outcomes. Instead, 'last mile' attribution, such as post-click attribution and QR scans, offers a more practical and immediate understanding of shopper behaviour and purchase intent, particularly for bridging the gap between digital media and in-store purchases.

Limitations of incrementality testing and mixed media modelling for FMCG products

1. Disconnect from immediate purchase outcomes: Incrementality testing thrives in e-commerce environments, where online purchases can be directly tied to ad exposure. However, for FMCG brands that depend heavily on in-store sales, connecting media engagement with final purchase outcomes is more complex. Incrementality testing struggles to account for this gap, as the use of 3rd party measurement vendors often rely on panel based, probabilistic, sales trend data, making it difficult to draw clear, deterministic links between an ad interaction and a sale.
2. Media fragmentation and MMM limitations: Mixed Media Modelling evaluates how various media channels, TV, digital, out-of-home (OOH), print, work together to influence overall sales. While this macro-level analysis offers strategic insight, MMM is limited in its ability to provide granular, real-time results - hence the launch of Lantern by the UK broadcasters. It typically relies on historical data and aggregated outcomes over weeks or months, which poses challenges in today’s rapidly changing media landscape. For FMCG brands, which often need to adapt campaigns quickly based on shopper behaviour, MMM's retrospective nature can be a drawback. The method also tends to focus on correlations rather than causation, making it difficult to attribute specific outcomes to individual marketing activities. This lack of granularity is especially problematic for understanding the direct impact of digital advertising or offline promotions like in-store displays.
3. Data limitations and incomplete view of the shopper journey: Both MMM and incrementality testing often lack the ability to fully capture the complex shopper journey in environments where the data is incomplete or non-deterministic. MMM uses aggregated data to measure broad trends but does not provide insight into the micro-level actions that individual shoppers take before making a purchase. Incrementality testing faces similar challenges, particularly when the final purchase occurs offline, making it difficult to connect the dots between media exposure and sales outcomes.

It’s therefore understandable why retail media networks are growing in popularity. In the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen:

1. Publicis acquiring the shopper marketing agency, Mars United, to enhance there ever growing range of retail media solutions.
2. Ocado unveiling their retail media offer to provide greater measurement outcomes.
3. Very Group launched their new retail media platform.
4. ITV announced the launch of ITV Kerching, an affiliate programme designed to help shoppers save money, showing that even media owners want to tap into the rich data opportunities retail opens up.

Let’s not forget however that these retail media solutions offer complications for brands through the tendency of operating as walled gardens, offering limited access, control, and transparency of what media is being purchased, and what data is being utilised/collected This creates blind spots for FMCG marketers who are trying to evaluate the effectiveness of their media spend, particularly when working across different platforms, channels, and retailers.

The case for 'last mile' attribution

While incrementality testing and MMM have their place in measuring marketing performance, I am however perplexed that greater consideration is not being given to 'last mile' attribution strategies such as post-click measurement and QR code tracking, that offer more immediate and actionable insights for FMCG brands.?

There are a great number of solutions emerging under the umbrella term, ‘shoppable ad’s’, where brands would be better served combining the creative efforts of upper and lower funnel communications. Branding + CTA = better outcomes. This is why I believe we need to collapse the purchase funnel.?

1. Post-click attribution: Post-click attribution focuses on measuring shopper actions directly after they interact with an ad. Although this doesn't always provide a direct link to a final purchase, especially for FMCG products purchased in-store, it offers valuable insights into intent-driven behaviour. For instance, a shopper might click on an ad for a snack product, browse product information on a website, and later purchase that product during their next grocery run. While the eventual in-store purchase may not be captured digitally, post-click attribution reveals how well the digital media drove engagement and intent. This insight is invaluable in understanding which messages resonate with shoppers, guiding future marketing decisions even when deterministic data isn’t available.
2. QR Codes: measuring offline media engagement and outcomes: QR codes, often dismayed amongst adtech peers, should become a critical tool for FMCG brands, allowing them to measure offline media engagement by connecting to a digital identifier that is tied to outcomes. Whether included on product packaging, in-store displays, or print ads, QR codes enable marketers to track interactions and engagement in real time. When a shopper scans a QR code, FMCG brands can isolate and assess the effectiveness of specific offline media placements. This data provides actionable insights into what content or channels are driving shopper interest, allowing marketers to optimise future campaigns. Even though this may not always result in a direct link to an immediate purchase, it offers a strong indication of shopper engagement with both digital and offline media.
3. Faster insights for agile marketing: One of the primary challenges with MMM and incrementality testing is the time it takes to produce results. Both methods rely on longer data collection periods, making them less suitable for fast-paced FMCG environments, where shopper behaviour can shift rapidly. In contrast, 'last mile' attribution through post-click and QR code tracking offers near-real-time data, allowing FMCG marketers to pivot quickly based on emerging trends. This agility is crucial for brands that need to react to competitive pressures, seasonal shifts, or sudden changes in shopper demand.
4. Overcoming data gaps in a non-deterministic world: With retail media solutions operating as walled gardens, FMCG marketers need to focus on measuring outcomes wherever they can and scale up their 1st party data capabilities. Post-click and QR code attribution provide critical insight into shopper behaviour that might otherwise go unmeasured. While these methods don't offer a perfect, deterministic view of the shopper journey, they help fill the gaps left by MMM and incrementality testing by providing more immediate, behaviour-based outcomes.

Conclusion: A balanced approach towards measuring outcomes

I'm not advocating for the discontinuation of both incrementality testing and MMM. Both offer valuable insights into how marketing influence outcomes, but they are not without their limitations, especially for FMCG brands that rely on both digital and offline shopper interactions. In today’s fragmented media landscape, particularly in the absence of 3rd party cookies, 'last mile' attribution strategies are essential to help colour the picture by providing deterministic links between media engagement and purchase outcomes.?

Post-click attribution and QR code tracking provide real-time data and tangible engagement signals that can guide FMCG marketers toward smarter, more effective media strategies. These methods offer practical insights helping brands capture critical moments of influence and optimise both online and offline touchpoints. Further, by taking direct control of your campaign performance, you can readily build out a base line for scaling your 1st party data strategy.

'Last mile' attribution allows FMCG brands to measure outcomes more immediately and accurately. By combining these attribution methods, brands can create a more holistic and actionable understanding of their marketing performance in an increasingly complex and competitive landscape.

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