? Last Call: Global Crisis ?

"All My Possessions for a Moment of Time" - Queen Elizabeth I

I've had a couple of discussions lately about the future of chip manufacturing, considering current bilateral trade restrictions between The States and China, not to mention the cut in output experienced by some of the larger manufacturers. This puts AI at a peril, which is not something we should turn a blind eye to.

?? Intel's Tight Spot ??

Intel's German Bottleneck

Intel's €10Bn investment in Germany is like a car stuck in the mud. Worker shortages, high energy prices, and expensive money have turned this investment into a jeopardy.

Apple's Winning Bid

Apple winning a bid against Intel is akin to David beating Goliath. It's not just a business loss for Intel; it's a dent in their ego.

The Samsung-Nvidia-AMD Trio

Samsung, Nvidia, and AMD are not just biting into Intel's market share; they're feasting on it. It's a buffet, and Intel's not invited.

The Chinese Regulatory Hurdle

Intel's Tower investment tanked by Chinese regulators, but there's still Poland. It's like missing the bus but still having a bicycle.

? Intel's Scenarios ?

1?? Intel could lose its market leader position.

2?? Apple, Samsung, Nvidia, and AMD could dominate.

3?? Intel's Poland investment of €4.6Bn becomes crucial.

4?? Global chip supply could be further constrained.

5?? Intel's failure could lead to a rise in chip prices.

?? ASML's Supply Chain Woes ??

ASML's Input Cut

ASML cutting its input is like a chef deciding to cook less during a dinner rush. It's not just ASML's problem; it's everyone's problem.

TSMC's 18-Month Constraint

TSMC already said they have an 18-month bottleneck. Add ASML's cuts, and we're looking at a 2-3 year delay, which is like waiting for a bus that never comes.

Chip Price Hike

Prices of chips have soared by 112% within the last 48-60 months. If you think AI is expensive now, just wait.

?? ASML's Scenarios ??

1?? ASML needs to reconsider its input cuts.

2?? TSMC's bottleneck could worsen.

3?? Chip prices could double or triple by 2025.

4?? The AI economy could be severely hindered.

5?? It's time for more competitors to ASML.

???? Russia's Fuel Fiasco ????

Russia's Fuel Export Ban

Russia banning fuel exports is like a bartender refusing to serve drinks. It's not just bad for business; it's a recipe for disaster considering the energy and the weapons sectors are the only ones bringing profit in internal revenue.

Putin's Ukrainian Ambitions

Putin's keen on winning in Ukraine, but at what cost? It's like betting your house on a game of poker; the stakes are too high.

Interest Rate Hike

From 8.5% to 13%, Russia's base interest rate has skyrocketed. Couple that with an average interest rate on loans of about 6%, it means the average business or person returns about 21% in interest on the first year alone. It's not just a number; it's a sign of an economy on the brink.

Human Capital Flight

Over a million people have fled Russia, and 50% of migrant workers (3 Million) are looking to leave. It's not just a statistic; it's a crisis.

? Russia's Scenarios ?

1?? Russia's economy could collapse within the next 12 months.

2?? Putin's Ukrainian war could backfire on Russia's global stance.

3?? The energy sector may falter even more so.

4?? Human capital flight could worsen as there is no economic future.

5?? The Taxi Act could lead to privacy concerns and counter-espionage.

???? China's Economic Quagmire ????

China's Oil Dilemma

China buys most of its oil from Russia. With Russia's export ban, it's like running a car with no fuel. And to put things into perspective, not selling its own diesel products (made from Russian oil) is the same as baking a pie and throwing it in the garbage.

Evergrande's Debt Crisis

Evergrande's debt is 2% of China's GDP. It's not just a company problem; it's a national crisis. Now that its own chair is under police surveillance, one must wonder if there was something off to begin with.

The €41Bn Chip Fund

China's inability to raise €41Bn for its chip fund could be the final nail in its AI coffin. It's like a runner tripping right before the finish line.

Indonesia's TikTok Ban

Indonesia banning TikTok for e-commerce is a blow to China's tech ambitions. It's like losing your biggest customer overnight.

?? China's Scenarios ??

1?? China's economy could collapse.

2?? BRICS could be severely affected.

3?? Russia may lose its biggest ally.

4?? Global supply chain could be disrupted.

5?? Countries like Vietnam and Indonesia could rise.

6?? China's Middle Corridor investments could falter.

7?? The Yuan could further slump.

???? The U.S. Conundrum ????

U.S. Foreign Policy Missteps

The U.S. foreign policy has been like a bull in a china shop lately, especially when it comes to OPEC relations. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, once staunch allies, are now cosying up to BRICS nations.

The CHIPS Act

The CHIPS Act is like a double-edged sword. It's aimed at China but could backfire on the U.S. It's like trying to swat a fly with a sledgehammer; you might just bring down the whole house.

Weaponising the Dollar

Weaponising the dollar has led to de-dollarisation, creating a supply chain problem. It's like shooting yourself in the foot while trying to run a marathon. Not the brightest idea, is it?

OPEC's Output Cut

OPEC's output cut has led to higher crude oil prices, forcing the U.S. to rethink its energy strategy. It's like changing the rules of the game halfway through, only to realise you've been playing checkers while everyone else is on the chessboard.

?? U.S. Scenarios ??

1?? The U.S. economy could face repercussions.

2?? Sanctions may not work as intended.

3?? Dedollarisation could escalate, putting the strain on other reserve currencies.

4?? The global supply chain could be further disrupted.

5?? The CHIPS Act may need reevaluation, as Huawei has already circumvented it.

6?? Oil prices could continue to rise, further disrupting supply chains.

7?? Trade restrictions could have unintended consequences.

?? Takeaways for Business Leaders ??

The AI Lifeline

1?? Embracing AI isn't a future-forward concept; it's a present necessity. From customer service bots to predictive analytics, AI can be your silent partner.

??? Using AI algorithms to predict consumer buying patterns.

??? Implementing chatbots to handle routine customer queries 24/7.

The Outsourcing Equation

2?? The world is your talent pool. With human capital flight from Western to Eastern Europe, quality skills are available at a fraction of the cost.

??? Tapping into Eastern European tech talent for software development.

??? Utilising remote teams in lower-cost regions for non-core tasks.

The Global Chessboard

3?? Geopolitical shifts aren't just for news junkies; they affect your bottom line. From trade wars to fuel prices, the world impacts your local market.

??? Adapting to currency fluctuations that affect your import costs.

??? Navigating through global supply chain disruptions.

Adapt or Perish

4?? Change is your only constant companion. Whether it's consumer trends or tech advancements, adaptability is your lifeline.

??? Pivoting your business model to meet new market demands.

??? Upgrading your tech stack to stay competitive.

The Value Proposition

5?? Cutting costs doesn't mean cutting corners. Quality and value can set you apart in a crowded market.

??? Investing in quality assurance to build brand trust.

??? Offering premium services that justify a higher price point.

The Macro-Micro Symbiosis

6?? You're a small fish in a big pond, but even small fish are affected by the water's pH. Keep an eye on macroeconomic indicators.

??? How inflation rates could necessitate a pricing strategy overhaul.

??? The impact of rising interest rates on your expansion plans.

The Exodus Opportunity

7?? The human capital flight from Russia offers a unique opportunity. Skilled workers are looking for stable environments; could your business be the next hub?

??? Recruiting skilled Russian talent in tech and engineering.

??? Establishing satellite offices in countries benefiting from human capital flight.

?? Ready for the Storm? ??

You might think you're sailing in calm waters, but let's not kid ourselves. The horizon is more uncertain than it appears. The real question is, are you prepared for what's coming?