Las Vegas is Betting on Trump: How Often Are They Correct in Predicting U.S. Presidential Elections?

Political betting odds have become a staple of election season coverage. Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks offer a real-time look at public sentiment and confidence in the candidates. Although U.S. regulations limit political betting within the country, platforms outside the U.S. maintain election records, giving us data-rich insights. Historically, betting odds have had a strong track record in predicting presidential outcomes, winning approximately 77% of the time when there’s a clear favorite. However, major upsets remind us that these odds are not infallible. This article delves into how often Vegas odds have correctly predicted election results, key examples of accurate forecasts, and surprising upsets that challenge the odds.

Betting Markets and Presidential Election Success Rate

Since the 1870s, betting markets have predicted the winner in about three-quarters of presidential elections with clear favorites. This means that in 27 out of 35 elections, the candidate with the more favorable odds has emerged victorious. Betting odds reflect probabilities and confidence, often responding swiftly to new information like economic shifts, debates, or scandals that might not immediately reflect in polls. In fact, favorites with odds stronger than -175 have a remarkable win rate of over 92%

Notable Elections Where the Odds Were Right

1. 2008?—?Barack Obama vs. John McCain ?Barack Obama entered the 2008 election with substantial odds of around -900, signifying high confidence in his chances against Republican John McCain. Obama’s odds reflected a strong and growing support base amid an economic crisis, and he went on to win decisively. This is a prime example of how betting odds and polling aligned closely, correctly predicting Obama’s sweeping victory.
2. 2012?—?Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney ?Although the race tightened slightly closer to election day, Obama maintained odds of around -450, signaling him as the betting favorite. Obama ultimately won against Romney with a comfortable electoral margin of 332 to 206 votes, confirming the market’s faith in his re-election
3. 2004?—?George W. Bush vs. John Kerry ?As an incumbent with a polarized yet solid support base, George W. Bush held favorable odds of approximately -188 over John Kerry. Despite a divisive campaign, Bush won both the popular vote and the Electoral College, validating betting odds that leaned towards the incumbent’s stability in wartime

When the Betting Markets Got it Wrong: Major Upsets

While betting odds often align with election outcomes, certain historical upsets defy market predictions: Read On>>> https://www.andrewwood.life/posts/las-vegas-is-betting-on-trump-how-often-are-they-correct-in-predicting-us-presidential-elections