The Largest Black Swan Event of Our Lifetimes…

Hello Visionaries… Is there anything else this month’s issue could possibly be on other than the coronavirus and its fallout? Absolutely not… 

It’s been a crazy month at Real Vision as we all adjust to working from home and bringing our members more timely analysis. 

That includes a brand new show, Real Vision’s Daily Briefing, which is free for everyone to access. We’ll send you out today’s episode as soon as it’s ready, every weekday, once you sign up here.

Now let’s get stuck in…

On The Ground In A Crisis

Many people seem to be looking at Italy and still thinking that they are somehow a devastating exception. The truth is (and if you’ve been following the chart updates I post from GMI’s Remi Tetot, you’ll know this), Italy is simply a glimpse at the future. To talk about what it’s like on the ground in Italy now, I called Giovanni Pozzi, managing director at a family office in Italy. This is, quite frankly, absolutely unmissable. And we’ve made it available for you to watch for free. 

Raoul’s Macro Dispatch: “Be Bloody Careful”

This is a week old, and as we know, a week is like a year in coronavirus times. But there’s enough longer-dated stuff here to warrant its inclusion in The Vision, as well as what will likely be the most evergreen advice of 2020 - Be bloody careful. Recorded from self-quarantine in Little Cayman, I discuss the countries who are still not taking this seriously enough, the macro outlook, the Fed, and what I think will happen next. To watch straight away, please enter your email address here.

Is Recession Coming? 

The answer to the question “Is recession coming” is “It’s not coming, it’s already here…” So why is this Expert View from July 2019 relevant? Nowhere do I talk about the coronavirus, obviously. But the coronavirus has just been the catalyst… it’s blowing up what was already a very shaky situation. And in this episode, I take you through the terrifying way I said the dominoes would rapidly fall after the first one tipped over. It’s happening right now. Watch this Expert View for free… 

How Passive Investing Amplifies Volatility 

In this snapshot from the fabulous interview and discussion between Artemis Capital CIO Chris Cole and Quill Intelligence CEO Danielle DiMartino Booth, Chris talks about how passive investing serves as a volatility amplifier, and how it’s the battleground for the argument between price discovery and price momentum. Given that last week the pros panicked and sold, while passive investors just kept buying through market drops, this quick explainer is well worth your time.

The Dangers Of Following The Herd

Yes, it feels like the world has descended into absolute chaos, and yes, it feels like trying to keep up with what’s happening in the markets is a full-time job with a stack of over-time. But this episode of The Interview gives you a break from that while also helping you do what Real Vision set out to do, which is: make you a better investor. Jim O’Shaughnessy of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management shares wisdom about the psychological and behavioral aspects of investing in volatile markets… So much so, that one of our viewers said the interview should be “turned into a PSA and be required viewing for the public at large.” Enjoy. 

Daily Briefing – March 20, 2020

To give you a taste of what the Daily Briefing has to offer, you can check out Friday’s episode right here. It features me, Ed Harrison, and Ash Bennington catching you up on current events, laying out the current narrative (think signal, not noise), and wargaming what the hell might happen next. And remember, you can sign up for free here.