Large earthquakes and changes in atmospheric methane concentrations in the modern era.

In my recent podcast interview with Tom Nelson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2hVW0R67CY) I proposed an alternative to the mainstream view of the global Carbon Cycle that includes deep ocean geochemical exchange of inorganic carbon between the solid Earth (Lithosphere) and deep ocean currents or thermohaline.

Mainstream models utterly ignore such evidence.

In this presentation I highlighted evidence that suggests that seismic activity and geochemical exchange rates of inorganic carbon and a plethora of other inorganic elements from mid ocean ridge spreading zones and hydrothermal vents increase when the global climate system(s) goes into a warming phase and declines when it goes into a cooling phase.

As well, I have been increasingly drawing attention to other recent publications that likewise show strong temporal associations between changes in the bulk geological properties of planet Earth, its atmospheric temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Here are a few examples:

#1. This post shows a publication that highlights that the rate of migration of the magnetic North Pole, mid ocean ridge spreading zone seismic activity and the global average air temperature anomaly are highly correlated. (https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_geophysics-geology-activity-7208130694709936128-vRML?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop).

#2. This post shows a recent study that argues that the rate of change in differential rotation of the Earth's Core relative to the Mantle shows a strong temporal association with changes in the Earth's geomagnetic field, the global air temperature anomaly and the multi-decadal rate of change of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature. (https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_this-nature-geoscience-httpslnkdingymjapmn-activity-7206651511098023936-T-8k?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop).

#3. Finally, another recent post highlighted that the Earth's geomagnetic field strength shows negative linear correlations with both the tropospheric CO2 concentration and with the global air temperature anomaly (https://www.dhirubhai.net/posts/joseph-fournier-7077087_geophysics-geology-activity-7205936572343472130-4-Fr?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop).

Of course, correlations are hardly the same as proving causation.

The intention of showing evidence from the literature that demonstrates strong correlations between changes in the atmospheric temperatures and composition, with changes in the geophysical state of the planet is to discredit the claims that humans are solely to blame.

If humans are solely causing changes in the atmosphere in the modern era, why do we see temporally correlated patterns of change extending from the top of the atmosphere to the Core of the planet?

Now onto the basis of this LinkedIn article.

This latest LinkedIn article builds on this evolving theme by focusing on the recent flurry of publications by Leopold Lobkovsky et al and specifically their 2023 publication in MDPI Geosciences titled Large Earthquakes in Subduction Zones around the Polar Regions as a Possible Reason for Rapid Climate Warming in the Arctic and Glacier Collapse in West Antarctica (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/371439229_Large_Earthquakes_in_Subduction_Zones_around_the_Polar_Regions_as_a_Possible_Reason_for_Rapid_Climate_Warming_in_the_Arctic_and_Glacier_Collapse_in_West_Antarctica).

Lobkovsky et al's 2023 study aims to explain the unexpected time dependence of atmospheric methane concentrations over the past 40 years as being the result of a sequence of large seismic events during the latter half of the 20th century.

I say unexpected, because as Figure 1 shows, the annual rate of change in atmospheric methane concentration does not exhibit a linear trend as would be expected if human activities were first order in their influence.

Lobkovsky et al maintains that the decreasing annual methane growth rate in parts per billion per year seen between the 1970s to the early 2000s was the lagging response of a similar reduction in large magnitude seismic events (cover illustration above) along subduction zones in subpolar regions in either hemisphere and in particular in the Northern Hemisphere.

Lobkovsky et al argues that a rapid succession of large seismic events along the Aleutian and North Kuril subduction arcs in the North Pacific and along the Chilean subduction zone in the South Pacific during the 1950s to 1970s served as seismogenic triggers for the subsequent release of methane contained in metastable methane hydrates and submerged permafrost along higher latitudes some 20 years later.

Methane hydrates are common constituents of the shallow marine geosphere and they occur in deep sedimentary structures and form outcrops on the ocean floor. Hydrates of methane are believed to form by the crystallization of methane in ice cages migrating from deep along geological faults. There is estimated to be over 1 trillion tonnes of methane trapped in metastable methane hydrates in the global oceans.

As implied by metastable hydrates, these crystalline structures are stable as long as they are not subjected to small perturbations in heat or pressure.

The 20 year lag is said to be due to the speed of the resulting deformation wave (~ 100 km per year) propagating through the lithosphere and towards higher latitudes after these large seismic events (Figure 2).

Figure 3 highlights how Lobkovsky et al proposed seismogenic trigger results in an acceleration in tectonic stresses along subduction zones (a) that gives rise to a large amplitude deformation wave in the adjacent plate (b), which in turn provides the energy required to destabilize metastable methane hydrates and gas saturated permafrost (c).

Lobkovsky et al goes onto demonstrating empirical evidence of enhanced rates of methane emissions the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (Figure 4) including numerous photos of methane bubbles encapsulated in sea ice, as well as sonar images of methane plumes rising from the Arctic ocean sea floor.

Further anecdotal evidence that Lobkovsky et al provides for enhanced rates of Arctic methane emission is shown in Figure 5, which is said to be a crater of a suspected subsurface methane eruption near the Bvanenkovo oil and gas field in the Yamal Peninsula.

This study goes onto describe in detail how seismogenic triggers are likely attributed to the destabilization of the Western Antarctic icefields and sea ice since the 1960s. I encourage you to read this paper in its entirety.

What I found this study was missing was evidence of the seismic deformation wave on the northern side of the Aleutian and North Kuril subduction arcs in the North Pacific following the large quakes identified in this region. Hopefully these researchers will be able to provide further spatial - temporal evidence of this hypothesis in subsequent publications.

What drew me to this recent work by Lobkovsky et al was their closing citations made of the work by Dr. Arthur Viterito and his work on correlating changes in atmospheric temperatures and CO2 concentrations, with mid ocean ridge spreading rates (EQ) and the migration rate of the magnetic north pole (Dip Pole).

It is clear that these researchers were inspired by Arthur's work.

An example of one of Arthur's earlier publications is shown in Figure 6.

You can expect more evidence from the literature from me illustrating that natural climate change involves correlated changes rates of change from the Core of the Earth to the top of its atmosphere.

Proof of climate change is hardly the same as proof of anthropogenic causation.