Lambs To The Slaughter – Russian Casualties At Pavlika (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #239)

The 155th Naval Infantry Brigade of the Pacific Fleet sounds like a name that would be attached to a highly professional military force. If one did not any know better, they might think this would be the type of military unit that soldiers would proudly join in the expectation that they would be part of a superior fighting force, well trained and mission oriented with a strong sense of duty. The problem is that the 155th is part of the Russian military, a fighting force that has been plagued with incompetence, corruption, and criminal conduct.

Maybe professionalism existed at one time, but the Russian military as it currently exists has been shown to be quite the opposite. It does not seem to have a mission unless it is incurring a horrendous number of casualties and committing war crimes. Training is haphazard at best, nonexistent at worst. This leads to predictably poor battlefield performance with great loss of life. No one in the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade signed up for such a disaster, but this is just what happened on November 2nd at Pavlivka. This otherwise anonymous village in the Donbas was the setting for yet another Russian military debacle.

Shooting The Messenger – Claims & Blame

According to a message posted on Telegram by the Russian military blogger Gray Zone, an action at Pavlivka resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Russian soldiers. The message came from a survivor who called out the Brigade Commander, a District Military Commander, and the Russian Chief of the General Staff for incompetence. The message was addressed to the governor of the Primorsky region, in Russia’s far east. This is a region that has had a disproportionate number of soldiers. The fact that the message publicly called out Russian commanders for their incompetence was surprising, but not unexpected for anyone who has followed the war. The consternation that resulted from the recent mobilization has been widely reported and is even well known among Russians.

The truly shocking aspect of the message was that it elicited a response from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD). The MOD acknowledged that there had been casualties, but they were relatively light. Instead, they claimed that it was the Ukrainians who had lost all those men and the report was disinformation from the Ukrainian security services. There was a promise that an investigation would be started to bring the culprits to justice. Amplifying this message, the governor of the Primorsky region said the report was false. As though someone thousands of kilometers away would have any idea what really happened. Of course, the governor had spoken to one of the commanders to confirm this.

Chaos & Casualties – The Cover Up Continues

If truth really is the first casualty of war than it dies every day on the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine. Right along with the truth have gone the lives of over 70,000 Russian soldiers killed fighting an ill-conceived war plagued by disorganization and woeful leadership. The calamity that almost certainly occurred at Pavlivka is another example of just how badly the Russian war effort has gone and will continue to go. The Kremlin is having difficulty covering up the large number of losses. This will only worsen as Russian forces are increasingly raw conscripts that have little desire to be used as cannon fodder. Unfortunately, they seem to have no choice in the matter unless they can organize a mass mutiny. Either that or their family members back home cause enough societal unrest to stop the senseless sacrifice of thousands for a war that has soft support among the average Russian.

The Pavlivka debacle was only the most prominently publicized of mass casualty reports from the front that have begun to filter out with alarming regularity. The newest Russian recruits are being given a trial by fire that most have no chance of surviving. The soldier who sent the message about Pavlivka was lucky to survive. Russian conscripts are incurring mass casualties while they try to hold off well-trained and highly motivated Ukrainians. The incident at Pavlivka proves this. That disaster was not an outlier, the only difference between it and countless other actions that have resulted in hapless Russian recruits getting killed, is that we know about it. There are Pavlivka’s happening every day all along the frontlines and they will continue to until Russia exhausts another reservoir of manpower. The Russian Army that existed at the beginning of the war in Ukraine no longer exists for the same reason that so many raw recruits are getting slaughtered.?

Death March – Systemic Failure

Most of Russia’s best trained, professional soldiers were killed in the spring and summer by a combination of disorganization, mismanagement, and the ferocious fighting qualities of the Ukrainian Army. If those Russian forces could not defeat the Ukrainians, then what chance do a bunch of poorly trained conscripts have? The answer came at Pavlivka and other deadly military actions. ?

The pressure on the Kremlin continues to build as it gets more difficult by the day to control the information space. The fact that the MOD felt compelled to respond publicly to the Telegram message is a sure sign that the Kremlin is concerned they risk losing control of the hearts and minds of the average Russian. Their fear is justified. The recent mobilization has exacerbated discontent with a war that was never very popular to begin with. The mobilization dispelled any notions that it was a “special military operation” which would end sooner rather than later. There is no end to the conflict in sight.

The fact that military victory has proven elusive only makes matters worse for Russia. The longer the war goes on, the more casualties Russian forces will incur. Unlike earlier in the war when their casualties were mostly professional soldiers, now the majority will be new recruits who were forced into service. There will inevitably be more incidents like the one at Pavlivka followed by complaints from soldiers that make their way back home. This is one of the unintended consequences of drafting men who do not want to be fighting in Ukraine. Sooner or later most of them will realize the truth that they are nothing more than cannon fodder.?