LADY LUCK IS ON THE UK’s SIDE

The UK triggered Article 50 on 29 March 2017, which means that it is set to leave the EU on 29 March this year. The default position in law at the moment is that - deal or no deal - 29 March is when Brexit will happen, whether the UK is ready or not. The deal for Brexit, negotiated between UK and EU, was not accepted by MPs in the UK parliament on 12th March 2019. A decision then followed on 13th March 2019 by MPs, for UK not to leave the EU without a deal under any circumstances. Therefore, (1) there is no agreed deal for leaving EU and (2) UK will not leave without a deal. As there is insufficient time (15 days left) to generate a fresh deal acceptable to EU27 members, the only option would be to extend the deadline for a deal i.e. 29th March 2019.  

If Parliament were to vote in favour of an extension of the deadline, The UK would need to go to Brussels to get the unanimous agreement of all 27 other EU countries. But the EU is not obliged to say yes. The request to extend could be turned down due to several possible reasons some of which are to do with the logistics side (EU Parliament term coming to an end soon, EU elections in May).

So, what could be the best way forward under the circumstances and how can it be seen as a sign of providence in favour of UK? It has not been easy for all concerned – the Government, MPs, the citizens, the businesses and multiple agencies while the negotiating process was under way. It has been really exhausting for some. However, during the process a lot of the cards began to open up which revealed various intentions of several parties. To those who observe and reflect, it is abundantly clear that there is an unseen force in favour of the UK, which has helped, despite the sufferings and disillusionment, for it to come out as a winner. Why a winner?

After all that transpires at the final stage, it may become abundantly clear to all concerned that there is no other suitable option available but to revoke article 50. Article 50 can be withdrawn or revoked. The UK can do that without consulting anyone else. It would mean that Brexit would not happen and the UK would remain in the EU.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) has ruled that a revocation should be "unequivocal and unconditional", suggesting that the ECJ would take a dim view of any attempt to withdraw an Article 50 notification and then resubmit it again later.

The Referendum result of June 2016 was advisory and the actual result has to be respected – The British population voted based on information that they were given, their own feelings and their individual perceptions of the EU. They rightly exercised their democratic right that was afforded to them through the Referendum exercise. The vote in favour of Exit made it abundantly clear that there was dissatisfaction with the status quo as far as the EU was concerned. A lot has been learnt.

The parliament, the seat of legislation and government, with a duty to protect the interests of the population, that it is supposed to serve, should decide on behalf of the population. Why? Because parliament, by virtue of its position, has greater access to facts than majority of those who voted and, with hindsight, have a greater understanding as to the economic, social and political consequences of Brexit. The benefits, costs and risks of triggering article 50 to the UK as a whole, and to all of its constituent populations are now a lot more clearer. The Referendum had not provided guidance as to what UK’s future relationship might be with Europe but a lot has been learnt as to what the sticking points were and what the population perceives and why.

Parliament is sovereign and the guardian of our democracy. MPs are elected to exercise their best judgment on the basis of objective evidence, to safeguard the interests of the country and their constituents for this and future generations. At this time of profound constitutional, political and possibly social and economic crisis, we look to them to fulfil the responsibility placed upon them. Nothing is written in stone. Negotiations based on benefit to humanity will bear success. This will lead to a WIN/WIN scenario for all – the EU, its members and the constituent populations of the member nations.

Some of the benefits to the UK, if it continues to enjoy the membership of the EU, will be a saving of ￡39billion, ensuring that the United Kingdom (UK) remains intact without any breakup, will discourage any nations with ambitions on UK’s sovereign territories and prevention of any misunderstandings about rights to various resources. It will also help to restore confidence back into the UK economy and its government. It will be a WIN/WIN situation under the circumstances in which UK finds itself today.

Dr Amir Lakha M.B.Ch.B. MSc(EDIN) DPM(RCPLond & RCSEng)

Founder and Chairman: HUMANITARIAN AND CHARITABLE ONE TRUST (HACOT)

Author: HEADS YOU WIN TAILS YOU WIN

Email: [email protected]

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