Labour's plan to win over aspiring homeowners

It's been a week since the local elections, and while the headlines have faded, the debate over increasing homeownership persists.

Today I’ve pulled together thoughts on:

• How the Labour Party drafts its manifesto – process and who influences it.
• Labour's drafted and provisional 86-page policy handbook, which is expected to serve as the foundation for the Party's next general election manifesto, summarised exclusively in LabourList?last night.
• What happened in the local elections last week and what that could mean come a general election.
• What this means for housing policies, given the current emphasis on homeownership.

LabourList?last night exclusively summarised Labour's provisional 86-page policy handbook, which is expected to serve as the foundation for the Party's next general election manifesto.

However, we are still a long way from a final manifesto, which must overcome at least three known obstacles:?

1. It must first pass through Labour's National Policy Forum (NPF), which includes approximately 200 members from the Labour Party's major groups, ranging from constituency parties and regions to affiliated Trade Unions and socialist societies. The NPF will debate and amend this document until June, shaping the Party's policy agenda.
2. Following that, the document must be approved at Labour's annual conference, which will be held in Liverpool from October 8th to 11th. It will undoubtedly be a well-attended conference. It could also be the last before the general election if one is called early after the next round of local elections in May 2024, depending on how well the Conservatives perform of course.
3. Finally, just before the general election, representatives from the Shadow Cabinet, Trade Unions, and the NEC will convene at the Clause V meeting to decide which policies will be included in the manifesto. Potentially contentious issues, on the other hand, will be resolved behind the scenes. Unity is critical ahead of the general election, so key policies are likely to be decided well before the Clause V meeting.

As with any political party, if the leadership is strong, it dictates what the party would do if elected and what goes into the manifesto.

When an issue is a hot topic, such as Brexit, the strength of feeling in the membership may mean that the party's leadership has less room to manoeuvre, which can be seen played out at conference. Fundamentally though it is still very much a small team that will make the final decision on the manifesto formation.

All of this should make you wary of anyone who claims to be able to influence what goes into the manifesto.

It's highly unlikely that voters will read the manifesto, so why put so much effort into it? Simply put, voters will pay attention to how the media reacts to it. As a result, it must be written in such a way that it piques the media's interest, thereby aiding in the creation of a sense of momentum for the Party.

Which brings us neatly back to last week's local elections.

Local Elections 2023 and national outlook

The Conservatives were heavily defeated in the local elections, losing over 1,000 seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and the Green Party, as has been widely reported.

However, according to James Blagden, Head of Politics and Polling at Onward, the problem was not so much a defecting Conservative vote as it was a suppressed vote, with Conservatives not voting and the Liberal Democrats picking up tactical votes from other left-wing parties.

Will Conservative voters support Labour in a general election if they have to choose between Sunak and Starmer?

While local trends rarely translate to the national level and given the suggestion of Conservative voters staying at home, replicating last week's results nationally is risky, but it hasn't stopped it from happening.?

According to the BBC's PNS, Labour have 35%, the Conservatives have 26%, the Liberal Democrats have 20%, and others have 19%. According to the Sky News NEV projection, Labour had 36%, Conservatives had 29%, Liberal Democrats had 18%, and Others had 17%.?

Using PNS, Labour is up seven points from last year and has the largest lead over the Conservatives in local elections since 1997, but it also has the same vote share. Furthermore, in 2018, a year before Labour's defeat in the general election, Jeremy Corbyn received 35% of the vote, while Ed Miliband received 38% in 2012.

The main difference this time is the disastrous Conservative vote share, which was two points lower than in 2019. Since David Cameron received 25% in 2013, the Conservatives have not been this low.

Despite the fact that Labour would win 298 seats and become the largest party in Parliament, and the Conservatives would lose 127 seats, dropping from 365 to 238, current forecast models show Labour falling 28 seats short of the overall majority required.

This, of course, begs the question of whether the outcome reflected more dissatisfaction with the government than enthusiasm for Labour's alternative, and so what happens in the run-up to the general election, and thus the narrative they choose to run with (which should be based on the manifesto), is critical, and you could say that everything is still up for grabs.

As a result, Labour has resumed its charm offensive and is on a mission to deliver hope, aka phase three of a three-point plan (1. moving the party away from Corbynism and rooting out antisemitism; 2. demonstrating the Conservatives' inability to govern; 3. putting forward positive policies).

So, when we look at this draft policy document, we might get a glimpse of how Labour will implement phase three. You can jump to the report's six sections, as summarised by LabourList, by clicking below:

1. a green and digital future
2. better jobs and better work?
3. safe and secure communities
4. public services that work from the start?
5. a future where families come first?
6. Britain in the world

What does all of this mean for housing policies, given the current emphasis on homeownership?

Housing became a critical issue in the final week before the local elections, and it appears to be here to stay. Squabbles erupted over housing targets, mortgage payments, and ensuring that the next generation can realise their dream of home ownership.

Given their inability to provide hope or positive policies for those looking to get on the housing ladder, it is no surprise that housing remains a problem for the Conservatives in the aftermath of their local election defeat.

Following the poor results, Conservative politicians have urged the Government to reverse its decision to weaken local housing targets .

Conservatives like Simon Clarke MP and Lord Barwell have chastised the government for attempting to 'out-nimby' the Liberal Democrats and Greens while also failing younger voters looking to get on the property ladder.

This comes as the director of the Centre for Policy Studies, Robert Colvile, stated in the Sunday Times that the housing issue is "toxic" for the Conservative Party because "nothing else pits their present so squarely against their future." While it makes tactical sense (Conservatives are overwhelmingly supported by "elderly, affluent, and rural voters who already own homes"), it is an "awful strategy," given that sticking to this anti-housebuilding stance would be "politically apocalyptic," given that Labour outnumbers Conservatives 60%-15% among those aged 25 and under.

• We at C|T Group have been saying this for some time. Way back in 2021 our polling and analysis, outlined in?Build Me Up, Level Up: Popular homebuilding while boosting local communities presented evidence that suggested a 1.6 million vote boost for Conservatives building more homes in a way that levels up.

Meanwhile, Labour has previously stated that it will reintroduce housing targets in order to fulfil the Conservatives' failed promise to build 300,000 homes per year.

Although no specific targets are mentioned in the draft policy document, they have set a target of 70% homeownership. Now we await the specifics on how they will accomplish this, but building the homes in the first place is obviously a recognised need.

Furthermore, Labour has suggested that they will increase homeownership and housebuilding through the following measures (all of which are currently lacking the specifics on how they will be implemented):

• A new, comprehensive mortgage guarantee scheme will assist first-time buyers in getting on the property ladder. The government will act as guarantor for prospective homeowners who can afford mortgage payments but struggle to save for a large deposit under this programme.
• Allow first-time buyers first dibs on new developments in their area.
• Build more high-quality homes across the country while making more of them truly affordable.
• Put an end to the current leasehold system by fundamentally reforming the tenure and enacting legislation to that effect as soon as possible.
• Accompany support for first-time buyers with measures to redistribute demand away from those looking to purely speculate on house prices.
• Increase the stamp duty paid by foreign individuals, trusts, and corporations when purchasing UK residential property.
• To get Britain building again, reform planning and arcane land purchase rules while also fixing the country's development model.
• Allow local governments to acquire land at a price that is closer to its current use value.
• Encourage the establishment of a new generation of development corporations led by and accountable to communities. These new bodies will enable local leaders to play a more active role in development in their communities by collaborating with trade unions.
• Allow local governments, Metro Mayors, combined authorities, or groups of local authorities to pioneer new strategic development models for larger sites.
• Attempt to reduce the number of social homes that are quickly sold off through right to buy without comparable new social housing being built to replace them.
• Seek to reform Homes England so that it can better meet Labour's new priorities.

The Conservatives continue to debate housing targets while backing down on rental improvements and reversing on leasehold reform, with the BBC confirming yesterday that the rumours are true - the leasehold system will not be abolished in England and Wales this year, despite Housing Secretary Michael Gove's previous promise.

As one might expect, Shadow Levelling Up Secretary Lisa Nandy has seized the opportunity to slam Mr Gove, claiming that this demonstrates a "department in chaos" and a "Housing Secretary who has lost control."

So, what next?

We can expect more of the same from Labour in the coming months, a balancing act of attacking the government for its inability to govern while putting forward positive policies.

This puts the the PM in the perilous position of having to defend a homeownership stance that even some of his own MPs call indefensible while promoting positive policies and overcoming something that Sir Keir was challenged with - moving the party away from those who led it before him.