Labour, Biden and the limits of deliverology
Joe Biden will finish his term as one of the most unpopular American Presidents of the post-war period. At this point in their respective Presidencies, only George HW Bush and Jimmy Carter were less popular (Trump was slightly more so).?
This seems to stand in stark contrast to his achievements as President, and the difficult context in which he has been operating (though in fairness, that’s not unusual for any President).
Biden’s legislative achievements are many. Three signature pieces of legislation - The Inflation Reduction Act, The CHIPS Act and the Infrastructure Act are reshaping the American economy and society - and will do so for decades to come.
There have been setbacks, but unemployment is at a record 50-year low, and Biden added more jobs in his first three years than any president in history. Real wages are growing again after the global inflation of 2022 and the cost of living is going down, with economic confidence improving among Americans - albeit from a low historical level.?
Yet he remains resolutely unpopular and was forced to pull out of this year’s election after it became clear he couldn’t win, after questions about his advanced became impossible to ignore.???????????????
In the UK, Labour has entered power at the tail-end of a global social democratic wave which Biden led, but which is now petering out. Just like in the US, Labour came to power after an exhausted electorate ejected an unpopular and chaotic incumbent.
New Prime Minister Keir Starmer didn’t inspire much enthusiasm among the electorate while in opposition and his vision for the country – Labour’s Five Missions – is a technocratic and process-led approach to government.
However, Starmer is an experienced public servant with a track record of successful reform and delivery in his previous job as Director of Public Prosecutions. This period may provide a clue as to how he will approach the job of Prime Minister and whether he will ultimately succeed in his Missions for government.
If Labour demonstrably “gets things done”, will voters reward the party? Biden has been spurned by American voters despite this “deliverology” approach. This experience suggests Labour needs to do more than just "deliver" and then let that speak for itself.
In this scenario, it becomes a communications problem and requires a compelling story to be told about how the action taken by this Labour government is improving the lives of ordinary voters.
How do they do it?
Link the missions to voter concerns Relentlessly focus on linking the Five Missions to people’s everyday worries – and how making progress on them will improve their individual circumstances. There was confusion recently in the messaging at the launch of GB Energy and whether it would bring down people’s energy bills – these kinks need to be ironed out.
Demonstrate how economic growth benefits ordinary voters Labour is not just aiming for growth but “good growth” that benefits everyone, everywhere across the country. But growth remains an obscure concept to voters. The government must demonstrate and reiterate how economic growth helps fund the public services they rely on, creates better jobs, and with it wage growth and greater disposable income.
Be ruthless about sticking to the plan Governments are at the mercy of unexpected events, as we’ve seen in the last few weeks. However, voters are tired of politicians making promises that aren’t subsequently met – Labour must be relentless and ruthless about sticking to the plan – and demonstrably communicate to voters throughout its time in government how it has delivered on the promises it made.