Labor Market is Calmer, but Still Rocky
Hello and welcome back to the Recruitonomics Newsletter! This week, we’ll be discussing the cooling labor market that has some surprising resilience. Additionally, how the decline in car production has affected the German economy??
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This Week on Recruitonomics:
Not Exactly Cool, But Cooler
The hot labor market is cooling, but it will take a lot to actually call it cool. Recent increases in initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, have added fodder to the claim of a cooling market. But the level of the increase actually speaks to the resilience of the hot jobs market. Initial claims have risen above 2019 levels – but that was a tight, competitive market for workers as well. The resilience of individual sectors, especially service sectors, may indicate that the fear of once more having to rebuild a workforce outweighs the fears of a recession. Companies underwent huge layoffs in 2020, and recruiters know there was a struggle to return to full worker capacity among intense competition for labor and worker shortages.?
Read the full article here.
What does this mean for recruiters??
Recruiters should be seeing some calming in labor market pressures, but don’t expect the labor landscape to transform overnight. Hiring demand has declined slightly, but layoffs remain relatively low, even as economic pressures increase. Recruiters may be happy to know that the aftermath of the next downturn may not hold the same challenges as the pandemic shake-up because of an emerging labor hoarding trend.
The Decline of Car Manufacturing is Hurting the German Economy?
The German economy performed particularly well after the Great Recession, keeping up with the United States’ pace of growth, despite the terrible population dynamics developing in the economy. However, since 2018, the German economy has stagnated, in part because of the decline in industrial production, an enduring buoy for Germany. The country has long been reliant on industrial production and its strong export sector, especially car production. Around the globe, car production has stalled, peaking in 2018. For Germany, production peaked even earlier – in 2012. This lag in one of Germany’s main industries has impacted the country’s overall economic growth and will continue to unless the German car sector can adapt and reinvent itself.?
Read the full article here.
What does this mean for recruiters??
Car production in Germany has a large effect on the German economy, so the ability for this industry to reinvent itself and revamp production may be the difference between a strong and moderate economy in the years to come.
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Recruiting Tips:
Has your recruitment strategy been informed by the Appcast 2023 Benchmark Report? Maybe you find the insights valuable, but aren’t exactly sure how to integrate it into your strategy? Or maybe just confused by some of the implications of the data? If you have any underlying confusion (or outright confusion!), you’re in luck because Appcast put together a handy guide for you! In How to Use the Appcast Benchmark Report, we take a deep dive into why the data from our Benchmark Report is important for the performance of your recruitment marketing and how you can activate this data within your current strategy.
Recently on Recruitonomics:
Disinflation is happening, but slowly. In March, headline inflation slowed to 5% from the year before, the slowest pace in over two years. Price growth is moving sideways. This is a good thing in the eyes of markets, as the risk of stagflation – stubbornly high inflation paired with stagnant economic growth – is declining. This is positive in the Fed’s eyes as well but it would like to see a faster return to its 2% target, especially in the stubborn services sector. Core prices, stripped of food and energy costs, were up 5.6% year-over-year, eclipsing headline inflation. Within core prices, housing is especially persistent and continues to be, by far, the biggest contributor to inflation.?
Read the full article here.
As you know, since the beginning of the 2020s, the world of recruiting has been in disarray. Key recruiting costs like cost-per-application and cost-per-click increased, and finding the right candidate was difficult as the apply rate fell. Now, as we monitor these three all-important recruiting data series we notice that these costs are actually returning to something like normal in 2023. This is good news for recruiters: the slight labor market cooling that has occurred this year is already having an effect on costs. As supply and demand for labor rebalance, and with the Fed’s eye on further softening the labor market, these costs could continue to fall and return to 2019 levels.?
Read the full article here.
What Recruitonomics is Reading:
Are you curious which metropolitan areas are growing quickly in terms of population? What are the leading industries in these high-growth areas? Following these trends may help you understand the areas in which you may be hiring in the future, if you’re not already hiring there. In “Do you want to work where the people are? These jobs are most common in areas with high (or low) population growth,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics outlines which areas are growing quickly, which metro areas are growing slowly, and what leads to employment and wage growth in these areas.
?More Data & Insights:
Thank you for reading! Stay tuned for next week's Recruitonomics Newsletter and check out Recruitonomics.com for more data-driven insights.