La Nina bad news?

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So inquiring minds what to know (there's an oldie, huh?) how the Datum FS Foodservice Commodity Index continues to track at multi-year highs. Some of the less thought of markets (unless you own a coffee shop bakery.....oh man) including dairy, eggs and coffee have been leading the charge as of late. And of course beef, although recently experiencing seasonal declines, remains expensive along with chicken. The good news is the feed markets are near multi-year lows as the harvests are experiencing weather driven Peter Gabriel ("Big Time") crop yields.

Speaking of the weather, latest weather forecasts are calling for a 71 (think Trent Williams) percent chance of a La Nina pattern taking hold before the end of November. On the surface (embrace the pun), La Ninas typically aren't viewed as positive news for crop yields and pasture conditions in the U.S. and South America. That said, history suggests a less severe La Nina this winter (which is forecasted) is not detrimental for pasture conditions in the U.S. And as the chart at top shows, we need good weather this winter as current pasture conditions are some of the worst in the last three decades. Kinda important for any progress with the cattle rebuild.

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