Kurdistan Parliament Elections Begin

More than two years after it should have happened, the election campaign for the next Kurdistan Parliament has begun. Party campaign workers hit the streets on September 25, marking the start of a short 20-day campaign. The timing is symbolic, launching on the anniversary of the 2017 independence referendum and ending just before the anniversary of Kirkuk’s recapture by federal forces. These politically charged dates are being leveraged despite calls from senior leaders for a “respectful” campaign. Tensions flared with a public argument between Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and Deputy PM Qubad Talabani, highlighting the deep divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK).

The KDP is focused on securing as many seats as possible in its strongholds of Erbil and Duhok, which together have 59 MPs in the restructured parliament, aiming to maximize its parliamentary advantage. If it succeeds in these areas and picks up a few seats in Sulaymaniyah and Halabja, it could potentially form a government without needing alliances. The PUK is similarly focused on consolidating its base in Sulaymaniyah, though it faces tougher competition for fewer seats. Key questions for the PUK include whether the party can attract disillusioned supporters and fend off opposition parties appealing to reformist voters.

Together, the KDP and PUK are expected to win between 65 to 75 seats. This leaves around 20 to 30 seats up for grabs, primarily in Sulaymaniyah, for smaller and opposition parties like New Generation, Gorran, Kurdistan Islamic Union, and the Kurdistan Justice Group. These parties will need to navigate a fragmented political landscape and avoid splitting the vote. Among the five seats reserved for ethnic and religious minorities, the central story is the potential impact of Babilyun, a controversial party that previously won seats reserved for Christians in federal elections, on the expected fierce competition for seats in Erbil and Duhok. Turkmen parties are also facing uncertainty, particularly in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, where their candidates are running both on the reserved and general lists. Voter turnout will be crucial, as widespread frustration with both the ruling and opposition parties may drive many to stay home.